68 resultados para Aggregate shocks


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This paper assesses empirically the effect of oil price shocks on Portuguese aggregate economic activity, industrial production and price level. We take the usual multivariate VAR methodology to investigate the magnitude and stability of this relationship. In doing so, we follow the approach presented in the recent literature and adopt different oil price specifications. We conclude that, as for most industrialized countries, the nature of this relationship changed in the mid-1980s. Furthermore, we show that the main Portuguese macroeconomic variables have become progressively less responsive to oil shocks and the adjustment towards equilibrium has become increasingly faster.

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We investigate the role of permanent and transitory shocks for firms and aggregate dynamics. We find that permanent shocks to productivity and permanent shifts in the composition of output explain at least four-fifths of firms’ dynamics. However, these permanent shocks are almost uncorrelated across firms and are therefore less relevant for aggregate dynamics. Transitory shocks, on the other hand, are not very important at the firm level,but they account for most of the volatility of aggregate hours and output, because they are significantly correlated across firms. Finally, we try to make some progress on the interpretation of the shocks.

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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XII DBMC – 12th International Conference on Durability of Building Materials and Components, Vol.2, Porto, 2011, p.737-744

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Cement & Concrete Composites 45 (2014) 264–271

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I construct a model in which money and bond holdings are consistent with individual decisions and aggregate variables such as production and interest rates. The agents are infinitely-lived, have constant-elasticity preferences, and receive a fraction of their income in money. Each agent solves a Baumol-Tobin money management problem. Markets are segmented because financial frictions make agents trade bonds for money at different times. Trading frequency, consumption, government decisions and prices are mutually consistent. An increase in inflation, for example, implies higher trading frequency, more bonds sold to account for seigniorage, and lower real balances.

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It is well known that, unless worker-firm match quality is controlled for, returns to firm tenure (RTT) estimated directly via reduced form wage (Mincer) equations will be biased. In this paper we show that even if match quality is properly controlled for there is a further pervasive source of bias, namely the co-movement of firm employment and firm wages. In a simple mechanical model where human capital is absent and separation is exogenous we show that positively covarying shocks (either aggregate or firm level) to firms employment and wages cause downward bias in OLS regression estimates of RTT. We show that the long established procedures for dealing with "traditional" RTT bias do not circumvent the additional problem we have identified. We argue that if a reduced form estimation of RTT is undertaken, firm-year fixed effects must be added in order to eliminate this bias. Estimates from two large panel datasets from Portugal and Germany show that the bias is empirically important. Adding firm-year fixed effects to the regression increases estimates of RTT in the two respective countries by between 3.5% and 4.5% of wages at 20 years of tenure over 80% (50%) of the estimated RTT level itself. The results extend to tenure correlates used in macroeconomics such as the minimum unemployment rate since joining the firm. Adding firm-year fixed effects changes estimates of these effects also.

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Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Química, especialidade em Química-Física, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

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In this paper, the determinants of growth of aggregate health expenditures are investigated. The study departs from previous literature in that it looks at differences across countries in growth (and not levels) of health care expenditures. Estimation is made for 24 OECD countries. Health system characteristics usually believed to influence health expenditures growth, like population ageing, the type of health system (public reimbursement, public contract or integrate) and existence of gatekeepers, are found to be non-significant. Nevertheless, there is evidence that health expenditures experienced a clear slower growth in the last decade. The explanation for this slowdown could not be found in the proposed model and should stimulate further research.

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Thesis for the Degree of Master of Science in Biotechnology Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

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Trabalho apresentado no âmbito do Mestrado em Engenharia Informática, como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática.

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Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Biológica – especialidade Engenharia Genética, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

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Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em BioOrgânica

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Thesis submitted to Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia of the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master in Computer Science

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Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores