Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

Business concept design of an innovative product: Partnership between Nmusic and Rovio Entertainment Ltd.

Field Lab in Entrepreneurial Innovative Ventures

A technology diffusion perspective of Enterprise Resource Planning across European Small and Medium Enterprises: from determinants to Use to Value

Tese apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Gestão de Informação

The influence of sludge characteristics from fullscale MBR in membrane filterability

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente,perfil Sanitária

Employment of the side product of biodiesel production in the formation of surfactant like molecules

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica

Production of ellagitannins concentrate by UF-NF from tropical highland blackberries

Dissertation presented to Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa for obtaining the master degree in Membrane Engineering

Novel ready-to-eat mango product using gellan gum as gelling agent: physico-chemical, microbial and sensory characteristics

Este trabalho foi efectuado com o apoio da Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Superior de Agronomia com o Centro de Engenharia dos Biossistemas (CEER

Analysis and Treatment of a male portrait in oil and a study of the size layer with reconstructions from Vibert’s recipe (1892)

This thesis project concentrated on both the study and treatment of an early 20th century male portrait in oil from Colecção Caixa Geral de Depósitos, Lisbon, Portugal. The portrait of Januário Correia de Almeida, exhibits a tear (approximately 4.0 cm by 2.3 cm) associated with paint loss on the right upper side, where it is possible to observe an unusually thick size layer (approximately 50 microns) and an open weave mesh canvas. Size layers made from animal glue remain subject to severe dimensional changes due to changes in relative humidity (RH), thereby affecting the stability of the painting. In this case, the response to moisture of the size layer is minimal and the painting is largely uncracked with very little active flaking. This suggests that the size layer has undergone pre-treatment to render it unresponsive to moisture or water. Reconstructions based on late nineteenth century recipes using historically appropriate materials are used to explore various options for modifying the characteristics of gelatine, some of which may relate to the Portrait’s size layer. The thesis is separated into two parts: Part 1: Describes the history, condition, materials and techniques of the painting. It also details the treatment of Januário Correia de Almeida as well as the choices made and problems encountered during the treatment. Part 2: Discusses the history of commercial gelatine production, the choice of the appropriate animal source to extract the collagen to produce reconstructions of the portrait’s size layer as well as the characterization of selected reconstructions. The execution of a shallow textured infill led to one publication and one presentation: Abstract accepted for presentation and publication, International Meeting on Retouching of Cultural Heritage (RECH3), Francisco Brites, Leslie Carlyle and Raquel Marques, ‘’Hand building a Low Profile Textured Fill for a Large Loss’’.

Bio-valorization of crude glycerol through polyhydroxyalkanoates production

Due to the prospective partial replacement of fossil fuels by biodiesel, its production has continuously grown in the last decade. The increase in global biodiesel production demands the development of sustainable applications of its main by-product, crude glycerol. In this thesis the feasibility of producing polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) by a mixed microbial community using crude glycerol as feedstock was investigated. Several incubation conditions were studied in order to maximize PHA production. The microbial population selected under aerobic dynamic feeding conditions had the ability to consume both major carbon fractions present in the crude, glycerol and methanol. Two biopolymers were stored, poly-3-hydroxybutyrate (PHB) and glucose biopolymer (GB), apparently using glycerol as the only carbon source for their production. The microbial enrichment obtained was able to accumulate up to 47% PHB of cell dry weight with a productivity of 0.24 g HA/L d. The overall PHA yield on total substrate consumed (0.32 g COD HB/g COD crude glycerol) was in the middle range of those reported in literature (0.08–0.58 g COD PHA/g COD real waste). The increase of temperature from 23ºC to 30ºC favored the culture fraction that accumulates glucose biopolymer with a maximum accumulation value of 25% of cell dry weight, which is an interesting value but not the main goal of this thesis. The fact that crude glycerol can be used to produce PHA without any pre-treatment step, makes the overall production process economically more competitive, reducing polymer final cost. This was the first study that demonstrates the valorization of the glycerol fraction present in the crude glycerol into PHA using an aerobic mixed microbial consortium.