Municipal solid waste management system: decision support through systems analysis

Thesis submitted to the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Engineering

Analysis and simulation of social unrest in Europe: towards understanding social unrest in Europe

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Stochastic simulation of the morphology of fluvial sand channels reservoirs

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Geológica (Georrecursos)

Reliability analysis of a timber truss system subjected to decay

Assessing the safety of existing timber structures is of paramount importance for taking reliable decisions on repair actions and their extent. The results obtained through semi-probabilistic methods are unrealistic, as the partial safety factors present in codes are calibrated considering the uncertainty present in new structures. In order to overcome these limitations, and also to include the effects of decay in the safety analysis, probabilistic methods, based on Monte-Carlo simulation are applied here to assess the safety of existing timber structures. In particular, the impact of decay on structural safety is analyzed and discussed, using a simple structural model, similar to that used for current semi-probabilistic analysis.

Spatial analysis and investigation of fire events occurrences in the Valencian Community, Spain

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Stochastic modeling of the thermal and catalytic degradation of polyethylene using simultaneous DSC/TG analysis

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica

Urban land use and land cover change analysis and modeling a case study area Malatya, Turkey

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

The effect of demand information sharing in a supply chain under demand uncertainty: a simulation study

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

A simulation model for lean, agile, resilient and green supply chain management: practices and interoperability assessment

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

Numerical simulation of blast effects on fibre grout RC panels

The main purpose of the present dissertation is the simulation of the response of fibre grout strengthened RC panels when subjected to blast effects using the Applied Element Method, in order to validate and verify its applicability. Therefore, four experimental models, three of which were strengthened with a cement-based grout, each reinforced by one type of steel reinforcement, were tested against blast effects. After the calibration of the experimental set-up, it was possible to obtain and compare the response to the blast effects of the model without strengthening (reference model), and a fibre grout strengthened RC panel (strengthened model). Afterwards, a numerical model of the reference model was created in the commercial software Extreme Loading for Structures, which is based on the Applied Element Method, and calibrated to the obtained experimental results, namely to the residual displacement obtained by the experimental monitoring system. With the calibration verified, it is possible to assume that the numerical model correctly predicts the response of fibre grout RC panels when subjected to blast effects. In order to verify this assumption, the strengthened model was modelled and subjected to the blast effects of the corresponding experimental set-up. The comparison between the residual and maximum displacements and the bottom surface’s cracking obtained in the experimental and the numerical tests yields a difference of 4 % for the maximum displacements of the reference model, and a difference of 4 and 10 % for the residual and maximum displacements of the strengthened model, respectively. Additionally, the cracking on the bottom surface of the models was similar in both methods. Therefore, one can conclude that the Applied ElementMethod can correctly predict and simulate the response of fibre grout strengthened RC panels when subjected to blast effects.

Analysis and design of sinusoidal quadrature RC-oscillators

Modern telecommunication equipment requires components that operate in many different frequency bands and support multiple communication standards, to cope with the growing demand for higher data rate. Also, a growing number of standards are adopting the use of spectrum efficient digital modulations, such as quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM). These modulation schemes require accurate quadrature oscillators, which makes the quadrature oscillator a key block in modern radio frequency (RF) transceivers. The wide tuning range characteristics of inductorless quadrature oscillators make them natural candidates, despite their higher phase noise, in comparison with LC-oscillators. This thesis presents a detailed study of inductorless sinusoidal quadrature oscillators. Three quadrature oscillators are investigated: the active coupling RC-oscillator, the novel capacitive coupling RCoscillator, and the two-integrator oscillator. The thesis includes a detailed analysis of the Van der Pol oscillator (VDPO). This is used as a base model oscillator for the analysis of the coupled oscillators. Hence, the three oscillators are approximated by the VDPO. From the nonlinear Van der Pol equations, the oscillators’ key parameters are obtained. It is analysed first the case without component mismatches and then the case with mismatches. The research is focused on determining the impact of the components’ mismatches on the oscillator key parameters: frequency, amplitude-, and quadrature-errors. Furthermore, the minimization of the errors by adjusting the circuit parameters is addressed. A novel quadrature RC-oscillator using capacitive coupling is proposed. The advantages of using the capacitive coupling are that it is noiseless, requires a small area, and has low power dissipation. The equations of the oscillation amplitude, frequency, quadrature-error, and amplitude mismatch are derived. The theoretical results are confirmed by simulation and by measurement of two prototypes fabricated in 130 nm standard complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) technology. The measurements reveal that the power increase due to the coupling is marginal, leading to a figure-of-merit of -154.8 dBc/Hz. These results are consistent with the noiseless feature of this coupling and are comparable to those of the best state-of-the-art RC-oscillators, in the GHz range, but with the lowest power consumption (about 9 mW). The results for the three oscillators show that the amplitude- and the quadrature-errors are proportional to the component mismatches and inversely proportional to the coupling strength. Thus, increasing the coupling strength decreases both the amplitude- and quadrature-errors. With proper coupling strength, a quadrature error below 1° and amplitude imbalance below 1% are obtained. Furthermore, the simulations show that increasing the coupling strength reduces the phase noise. Hence, there is no trade-off between phase noise and quadrature error. In the twointegrator oscillator study, it was found that the quadrature error can be eliminated by adjusting the transconductances to compensate the capacitance mismatch. However, to obtain outputs in perfect quadrature one must allow some amplitude error.