The Future of services: Uncovering latent needs through trend analysis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

An equity wealth preservation strategy: Following the macro trend

Financial crisis have happened in the past and will continue to do so in the future. In the most recent 2008 crisis, global equities (as measured by the MSCI ACWI index) lost a staggering 54.2% in USD, on the year. During those periods wealth preservation becomes at the top of most investor’s concerns. The purpose of this paper is to develop a strategy that protects the investment during bear markets and significant market corrections, generates capital appreciation, and that can support Millennium BCP’s Wealth Management Unit on their asset allocation procedures. This strategy extends the Dual Momentum approach introduced by Gary Antonacci (2014) in two ways. First, the investable set of securities in the equities space increases from two to four. Besides the US it will comprise the Japanese, European (excl. UK) and EM equity indices. Secondly, it adds a volatility filter as well as three indicators related to the business cycle and the state of the economy, which are relevant to decide on the strategy’s exposure to equities. Overall the results attest the resiliency of the strategy before, during and after historical financial crashes, as it drastically reduces the downside exposure and consistently outperforms the benchmark index by providing higher mean returns with lower variance.

Carry and trend-following strategies

Recent research has shown that carry and trend strategies when combined lead to significant risk-adjusted returns that can be very attractive to investors, at a low cost with small and positive skewness. This study proposes to combine both carry and trend-following, considering a data set of ten years (09/2005-09/2015), within a portfolio composed by three major asset classes: currencies, commodities and equity indices. Following a futures-based methodology, the obtained results show that, indeed, the strategy results inevitably in higher returns and greater sharpe ratios for every asset class in study. This outcome results from the fact that trend proved to provide a significant hedge to the downside risk that carry is exposed to.

Breaking the Pattern and Creating New Paths – Feminist Mizrahi Women Artists in Israel

This article addresses the work of Mizrahi women artists, i.e., Israeli-Jewish women of Asian or African ethnic origin, using the artist Vered Nissim as a case study. Nissim seeks to affirm the politics of identity and recognition, as well as feminism in order to create a paradigm shift with regards to the local regime of cultural representations in the Israeli art scene. Endeavouring to find ways of undermining the rigid imbalances between different social groups, she calls for a comprehensive reform of the status quo through artistic activism. Nissim employs a style, content, and medium that disrupts the accepted social order, using humour and irony as unique weapons with which she takes liberties with conventional moral, social, and economic values. Placing issues of race, class and gender at the centre of her work, she seeks to undermine and problematize essentialist attitudes, highlighting the political intersections of different identity categories as the critical analysis of intersectionality unfolds.

O financiamento hospitalar e a definição de preços

RESUMO - Inseridos num contexto onde as unidades prestadoras de cuidados de saúde não possuem autonomia para fixar os seus próprios preços, estuda-se através do presente documento o processo de definição de preços do internamento hospitalar português entre 1993 e 2001, no sentido de aferir o grau de sinalização proporcionado ao mercado, uma vez que, na sua essência, um sistema de preços constitui um sistema de incentivos influenciador de comportamentos produtivos ao nível prestador. Utilizou-se a base de dados nacionais do sistema de classificação de doentes Grupos de Diagnóstico Homogéneos e foi caracterizada a evolução e tendência dos pesos relativos dos produtos do internamento hospitalar português. Foi também avaliada a relação da estrutura de preços com a quantidade produzida, a eficiência técnica e as necessidades em saúde da população portuguesa durante o período considerado. Apesar de existir alguma instabilidade durante o período analisado, o ponto de partida e de chegada não diferiu significativamente. Não foi encontrado nenhum padrão de variação que explicasse a instabilidade encontrada entre os produtos mais complexos, mais produzidos ou os que apresentaram maior/menor variação ao longo da década de 90. A hipótese relativa à correlação entre a evolução de preços e as variáveis quantidade, eficiência e necessidades também foi infirmada. Conclui-se que a utilização do sistema de preços constituiu na sua essência um sistema de incentivos neutro, não foi sinalizador para os prestadores e possuiu uma forte correlação com o nível de reposição de custos históricos dos hospitais portugueses.

A negociação no mercado a prazo do MIBEL

This master thesis has been developed during the internship in the Supervision Department of Supervision of the Intermediation and Market Structures of CMVM. My collaboration in such department was mainly focused on the derivatives market of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL). MIBEL embodies two organized markets – the derivatives market in Portugal and the spot market in Spain The trading activity in the derivatives market of MIBEL is processed through the trading platform of the regulated market managed by OMIP, however, much of the negotiation is over-the-counter. The aim of this work is to describe the market from a legal and economic perspective and to analyse the evolution of the negotiation, namely the impact of OTC in the regulated market trading. To achieve this, I propose to analyse also MiFID and EMIR rules over derivative contracts and the role of central counterparties, as they both are important to the discussion. In parallel, we found that OTC transactions are considerably higher than those traded in the regulated market managed by OMIP, those findings can be justified by the contractual relationships based on trust already established between the partiesarties. Nevertheless, since 2011 this trend changed by an increase of the registered OTC. Thereafter, although the parties continued to trade bilaterally, these transactions were registered in a central counterparty in order to eliminate the inherent risks related to the OTC derivatives transactions. This change in the negotiation pattern may also be influenced by the mandatory reporting of transactions imposed by EMIR, that requires for some classes of derivatives the centralized clearing and for all other requires the implementation of risk mitigation techniques.