Stops and bonanzas in the EU: Does being part of the Euro Area make a difference?

In this paper, we investigate whether being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza of capital flows. Our sample period is from 1995 until 2014. We identify these two phenomena and we evaluate which push and pull factors help predict the conditional probability of experiencing one of them. We find that most countries had significant capital inflows until 2008 and that there were more sudden stops during the recent financial crisis than in any other moment in our sample. The factors that better help forecast the conditional probability of a sudden stop are global uncertainty (represented by the push factor “Volatility Index”), and the domestic economic activity (pull factors “GDP growth” and “consumer confidence”). An indicator of country risk (pull factor “change in credit rating”) is the most significant one for predicting bonanzas. Ultimately, we find no evidence that being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza.

Escalation of conflict in FMCG industry: A negotiation case

This work project develops a case-study to be used in Negotiation courses, both in Masters programs and in executive education workshops. The case-study is based on a real-life negotiating situation in Belgium between Unilever, the second largest Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) company in the world, and Delhaize, one of the most important Belgium’s retailers, with a significant international presence. We also present an analysis of the negotiation based on relevant literature. First, a brief literature review is presented about how to deal with multiple-issue negotiations and how to deal with processes of escalation of conflict. These concepts are then applied to the analysis of the case-study.