Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Evaluation of outpatient child-adolescent mental health services (CAMHS) in Attica-Greece

ABSTRACT: Background: Childhood is a critical time for social and emotional development, educational progress and mental health prevention. Mental health for children and adolescents is defined by the achievement of expected developmental, cognitive, social and emotional skills. The development of child-adolescent mental health services (CAMHS) is a necessity for each country, not only as a prevention measure for the wellbeing of people, but also as an investment to the future of countries. Qualitative evaluation of services is the only way to ensure whether services function under quality standards and increase the possibility of better outcomes for their patients. This study examines the greek outpatient CAMHS against the British Standards of National Institute of Excellence for community CAMHS. The Standards assessed refer to the areas of Assessment, Care and Intervention. Objectives: The main objectives of the study are 1) to evaluate Greek outpatient CAMHS in the Attica region 2) to promote the evaluation process for mental health services in Greece. Methods: Due to the fact that Greek services are based on the British model, the tool used was the British self-review questionnaire of Quality Network for Community CAMHS(QNCC).The tool was translated, adapted and posted to services. Twelve out of twenty outpatient CAMHS of Attica (including Athens) responded. Data was collected and performed by the Statistical Package for Social Sciences SPSS. Results: The study resulted that the CAMHS examined, meet moderately the British Standards of 1) Referral and Access, 2) Assessment & Care planning, 3) Care & Intervention. Two out of twelve services examined, meet the standards of "Assessment and Care" in a higher percentage between 75% and 100%. Conclusions: The paper describes a satisfactory function of CAMHS in Attica prefecture taking into consideration the extremely difficult political situation of Greece at the time of the research. Strong and weak domains are identified. Also the translation and adaptation of British tools promote the evaluation process and quality assurance of Greek CAMHS.