Search-for-yield in Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds and monetary policy

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy on mutual fund risk taking using a sample of Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds in the 2000-2012 period. Firstly I estimate time-varying measures of risk exposure (betas) for the individual funds, for the benchmark portfolio, as well as for a representative equally-weighted portfolio, through 24-month rolling regressions of a two-factor model with two systematic risk factors: interest rate risk (TERM) and default risk (DEF). Next, in the second phase, using the estimated betas, I try to understand what portion of the risk exposure is in excess of the benchmark (active risk) and how it relates to monetary policy proxies (one-month rate, Taylor residual, real rate and first principal component of a cross-section of government yields and rates). Using this methodology, I provide empirical evidence that Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds respond to accommodative monetary policy by significantly increasing exposure, in excess of their benchmarks, to default risk rate and slightly to interest risk rate as well. I also find that the increase in funds’ risk exposure to gain a boost in return (search-for-yield) is more pronounced following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, indicating that the current historic low interest rates may incentivize excessive risk taking. My results suggest that monetary policy affects the risk appetite of non-bank financial intermediaries.

Exposição de profissionais de saúde a radiações ionizantes : confiança dos profissionais nas leituras de dosimetria individual

Resumo - O avanço tecnológico e científico no campo da Medicina tem favorecido a aplicação das radiações ionizantes nas áreas da Medicina Nuclear, Radiologia, Radioterapia e noutras especialidades relacionadas com a medicina de intervenção, como a Cardiologia. As Organizações de Saúde, com profissionais com risco de exposição a radiações ionizantes, são responsáveis, legislativamente, por assegurar a sua vigilância. Certificando a observação controlada das doses de exposição, os profissionais são monitorizados com dosímetros individuais e submetidos a vigilância médica. As leituras de dosímetria individual destes profissionais, originam por vezes, nos próprios, desconfianças e incertezas quanto aos valores medidos. Objectivo: avaliar o grau de confiança dos profissionais de saúde, expostos a radiações ionizantes, no sistema de monitorização individual. Metodologia: estudo observacional do tipo analítico- transversal, por questionário. Amostra de 190 Técnicos de Diagnóstico e Terapêutica de Cardiopneumologia, Medicina Nuclear, Radiologia, Radioterapia, expostos a radiações ionizantes, que exercem a sua actividade profissional em hospitais do concelho de Lisboa. Resultados: 51,1% dos Técnicos de Diagnóstico e Terapêutica não confiam nas leituras dos dosímetros, não se determinou uma relação estatisticamente significativa entre essa confiança, o tipo de dosímetro e a empresa que realiza as leituras. A confiança é maior nos que exercem em Organizações de Saúde públicas. 40,2% das Organizações de Saúde apresentam plano de vigilância médica, constatando-se uma falta de conformidade entre os Técnicos de Diagnóstico e Terapêutica, nalguns hospitais, relativamente à existência desse plano no respectivo hospital. A margem de erro associado ao estudo é de 5,09%, com um nível de confiança de 95%. -----------Abstract - The technological and scientific advances in the field of medicine has encouraged the application of ionizing radiation with a considerable positive contribution in the areas of Nuclear Medicine, Radiology, Radiotherapy and other specialties related to medical intervention like Cardiology. The Health Organizations that arise the risk of occupational exposure to ionizing radiation and is their responsibility to ensure monitoring, according the law. To ensure the monitoring of controlled doses of exposure, the exposed works use an individual dosimeter and undergo medical supervision. The individual dosimetry readings of health-care professionals, is sometimes questionable for themselves, arising distrust and uncertainty about the values measured. Objective: evaluate the degree of confidence of health professionals, exposed to radiation, on the system of individual monitoring. Methods: Observational study of cross-type analysis by questionnaire. Sample of 190 of technologists of Cardiopneumology, Nuclear Medicine, Radiology, Radiotherapy, exposed to ionizing radiation, which work in hospitals on the region of Lisbon. Results: 51.1% of technologists does not rely on the readings of their dosimeters, and wasn’t determined a statistically significant relationship between this trust, the type of dosimeter and the company that makes the readings(s) of their(s) dosimeter(s). The confidence in the readings is higher in public Health Organizations. 40.2% of the Health Organizations have medical monitoring plan and there is a disagreement between technologists, in some hospitals, relatively to the existence of this plan in their hospital. It was estimated that the u

PROTECÇÃO INDIVIDUAL À PICADA DE MOSQUITOS: Avaliação Laboratorial e no Campo do Efeito Repelente de Vestuário Tratado com Insecticidas ou Repelentes

RESUMO O controlo vectorial representa uma parte importante da estratégia global actual para a prevenção das principais doenças transmitidas por insectos, como a malária, a febre de dengue ou do West Nile. Uma das vertentes do controlo vectorial é aquela que se associa à protecção individual dos hospedeiros contra a picada de insectos. É no âmbito desta problemática que surge o estudo aqui apresentado. Este teve como um dos objectivos testar em laboratório a eficácia de três compostos diferentes (permetrina, DEET e citronela) contra a picada de mosquitos Anopheles stephensi Liston, 1901, quando aplicados a tecidos de algodão. Com base neste estudo laboratorial, seleccionaram-se os tecidos mais eficientes que foram testados no terreno, na área da Comporta, em ensaios simuladores de uma situação real. Os resultados foram complementados com alguns ensaios preliminares efectuados em laboratório com a espécie Culex theileri Teobald, 1903. Nos primeiros ensaios laboratoriais, tecidos impregnados com permetrina mostraram induzir uma repelência mais eficaz do que tecidos com DEET e citronela micro-encapsulados. O efeito de repelência dos tecidos com permetrina manteve-se, mesmo quando estes foram sujeitos a vários ciclos de lavagem. No entanto, os ensaios de repelência/protecção efectuados no campo demonstraram que a eficácia do tecido impregnado com permetrina é afectada pelo número de lavagens. Testes laboratoriais realizados com Cx. theileri, a espécie mais abundante da área da Comporta, apontam para que a discrepância observada entre os resultados das experiências laboratoriais e de campo possa estar associada a um comportamento diferencial das espécies envolvidas nos dois tipos de ensaio. Em conclusão, embora o uso de vestuário tratado com microcápsulas de repelentes seja um método promissor na protecção contra as picadas de insectos, este terá de beneficiar de algum investimento futuro para que possa vir a ser considerado uma estratégia válida no controlo vectorial a larga escala. Há que melhorar o modo de incorporação e apresentação do composto activo nos tecidos de modo a obter-se um efeito repelente mais efectivo e prolongado e a procura de repelentes naturais, indutores de menor toxicidade e mais repelência, deve ser continuada.

E-Health individual adoption - empirical model based on UTAUT 2.

The future of health care delivery is becoming more citizen-centred, as today’s user is more active, better informed and more demanding. The European Commission is promoting online health services and, therefore, member states will need to boost deployment and use of online services. This makes e-health adoption an important field to be studied and understood. This study applied the extended unified theory of acceptance and usage technology (UTAUT2) to explain patients’ individual adoption of e-health. An online questionnaire was administrated Portugal using mostly the same instrument used in UTAUT2 adapted to e-health context. We collected 386 valid answers. Performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, and habit had the most significant explanatory power over behavioural intention and habit and behavioural intention over technology use. The model explained 52% of the variance in behavioural intention and 32% of the variance in technology use. Our research helps to understand the desired technology characteristics of ehealth. By testing an information technology acceptance model, we are able to determine what is more valued by patients when it comes to deciding whether to adopt e-health systems or not.

Desigualdades socioeconómicas na utilização de cuidados de saúde na população com 65 ou mais anos de idade em Portugal : dados do 4.º Inquérito Nacional de Saúde 2005-2006

RESUMO - INTRODUÇÃO: A equidade em cuidados de saúde constitui uma prioridade das políticas de saúde, tendo vários estudos descrito uma iniquidade que geralmente favorece os indivíduos com maior rendimento e nível educacional. Este estudo visa caracterizar as desigualdades socioeconómicas na utilização de cuidados de saúde na população com 65 ou mais anos de idade, dadas as suas características, maior vulnerabilidade e crescente peso demográfico na população. METODOLOGIA: Através de dados do INS, procedeu-se à análise univariada e multivariada por regressão linear múltipla para avaliação das desigualdades socioeconómicas na utilização de cuidados de saúde em 8698 indivíduos. RESULTADOS: Identifica-se um padrão de desigualdade na utilização de cuidados de saúde – indivíduos com maior rendimento e nível de escolaridade utilizam em média mais consultas de especialidade; ocorrendo o inverso nas consultas de CSP. Com ajustamento pela necessidade, através do estado de saúde auto-reportado, observa-se um padrão de iniquidade no sexo masculino relativamente às consultas em geral e consultas de CSP. DISCUSSÃO E CONCLUSÕES: A iniquidade na utilização de cuidados de saúde, apesar de não constituir a única causa, pode determinar maior iniquidade em saúde, pelo que é relevante o seu estudo. Os resultados alcançados podem ser justificados pelas características do SNS, assim como pelas isenções de taxas moderadoras, rede social, outros indicadores económicos, ou ainda pelo próprio contexto de vida do individuo. Torna-se fundamental prosseguir a investigação acerca da equidade, assim como promover uma ampla reflexão sobre os desafios futuros do sistema de saúde, que permitam preservar a sua sustentabilidade e princípios fundadores.

O transporte como determinante social de saúde : mobilidade e utilização de transportes públicos na perceção das pessoas idosas : um estudo de caso numa comunidade urbana

RESUMO - O crescimento da população idosa constitui um dos principais desafios para as atuais e futuras sociedades. A possibilidade de as pessoas permanecerem na sua comunidade de forma saudável e ativa, à medida que envelhecem, elevam a importância da questão da mobilidade e da forma como se deslocam, na saúde e qualidade de vida desta população. O presente trabalho propôs-se perceber de que forma o acesso a transporte influencia a saúde e qualidade de vida, na perspetiva das pessoas idosas e identificar fatores que atuassem como barreiras ao acesso e utilização de transportes, principalmente transportes públicos. A metodologia utilizada foi estudo de caso, com base no modelo PRECEDEPROCEED, desenvolvido na Ameixoeira, Lisboa. Os dados resultaram de um questionário aplicado a 24 pessoas idosas, da análise documental e da realização de entrevistas. A análise dos dados sugere que, é ao nível da autonomia e independência que o acesso a transporte influencia a saúde e a qualidade de vida da amostra, e a mobilidade e utilização de transporte, por sua vez, é influenciada por fatores individuais, como a idade, o género, o rendimento e as condições de saúde, e fatores ambientais envolvendo características dos transportes e da zona de residência. Tendo-se focado o trabalho na identificação das barreiras percecionadas pelas pessoas idosas na utilização de transportes públicos, sugere-se o elevado preço, a insuficiente distribuição do serviço, a distância às paragens e os horários inadequados como os principais constrangimentos identificados. Embora os resultados não possam ser extrapolados, devem ser encarados como um ponto de partida para futuras investigações.

The role of income inequality on fiscal multipliers

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Double Degree in Economics from the Nova School of Business and Economics and University of Maastricht

The Impact of income support programs on transitions to employment

The income support programs are created with the purpose of fighting both, the poverty trap and the inactivity trap. The balance between both is fragile and hard to find. Thus, the goal of this work is to contribute to solve this issue by finding how income support programs, particularly the Portuguese RSI, affect transitions to employment. This is made through duration analysis, namely using Cox and Competing Risks models. A particular feature is introduced in this work as it incorporates the possibility of Defective Risks. The estimated hazard elasticity with respect to the amount of RSI received for individuals who move to employment is -0,41. More than a half of RSI receivers stays for more than a year and the probability of never leaving to employment is 44%. The results appear to indicate that RSI has affected negatively transitions to employment.

Reporting Income Taxes in the Banking Sector In Angola - Accounting, Tax Regulation and Financial Reporting Evidences

This research provides an insight into income taxes reporting in Angola, based on hand collected data from the annual reports of banks. Empirical studies on Angolan companies are scarce, in part due to the limited access to data. The results show that income taxes’ reporting has improved over the years 2010-2013, becoming more reliable and understandable. The Angolan Government is boosting the economic growth through tax benefits in the investment in public debt, which cause a reduction in the banks’ effective tax rate. The new income tax law will reduce the statutory tax rate from 2015 onwards and change the taxable income, resulting in shifting the focus to promoting private investment.

Comprehensive income: evidence from Portuguese listed companies on reporting choices and value relevance

This work project aims at analysing choices related to Comprehensive income (CI) of Portuguese listed firms and understanding the reasons behind them. Additionally, it studies the relevance of CI versus Net Income (NI). It was found that firm’s size and volume of Other comprehensive income (OCI) are positively related with the choice for separate statements while smaller firms with positive NI and negative OCI tend to disclose less information about taxes. The value relevance of CI proved to be superior to that of NI but OCI seems to have no incremental value relevance.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

The role of individual ability and structural embeddedness on entrepreneurial success

In the present thesis I analyse the roles of individual ability and structural embeddedness on entrepreneurial success. The results retrieved from a matched employer-employee longitudinal data set show prior worker productivities and environmental embeddedness to have a persistent positive impact on the size and growth rates of new firms. What is more, embeddedness facilitates the impact of ability on start-up performance with outsiders of comparable abilities starting smaller and slower growing firms. Those in higher ability categories are more likely to transfer and also, albeit to a lesser extent, close their ventures, an effect attributed to the higher opportunity costs associated with the group. Firms managed by embedded agents enjoy longer longevities and have better chances of finding a new owner after the departure of the previous one. Finally, higher ability types show evidence of specialisation in serial entrepreneurship.

Progressivity in the Portuguese personal income tax system

This Work Project analyzes the evolution of the Portuguese personal income tax system’s progressivity over the period of 2005 through 2013. It presents the first computation of cardinal progressivity measures using administrative tax data for Portugal. We compute several progressivity indices and find that progressivity has had very modest variations from 2005 to 2012, whilst from 2012 to 2013 there has been a relatively stronger decrease, excluding the impact of the income tax surcharge of the years 2012 and 2013. When this latter is included, progressivity of 2012 and 2013 decreases considerably. Analyzing the effective average tax rates of the top income percentiles in the income scale, we find that these rates have increased over the period 2010–2013, suggesting that an analysis of effective tax rates is insufficient to assess progressivity in the whole tax scheme.

Banco invest: Understanding how to grow in the portuguese individual clients segment

Field lab: Business project