Predicting market direction with hidden Markov models

This paper develops the model of Bicego, Grosso, and Otranto (2008) and applies Hidden Markov Models to predict market direction. The paper draws an analogy between financial markets and speech recognition, seeking inspiration from the latter to solve common issues in quantitative investing. Whereas previous works focus mostly on very complex modifications of the original hidden markov model algorithm, the current paper provides an innovative methodology by drawing inspiration from thoroughly tested, yet simple, speech recognition methodologies. By grouping returns into sequences, Hidden Markov Models can then predict market direction the same way they are used to identify phonemes in speech recognition. The model proves highly successful in identifying market direction but fails to consistently identify whether a trend is in place. All in all, the current paper seeks to bridge the gap between speech recognition and quantitative finance and, even though the model is not fully successful, several refinements are suggested and the room for improvement is significant.

The World Health Organization Multi-Professional Patient Safety Curriculum : implementation of key modules and its impact on patient safety knowledge, skills, and attitudes of medical students at the University of Algarve

ABSTRACT - Objectives: We attempted to show how the implementation of the key elements of the World Health Organization Patient Safety Curriculum Guide Multi-professional Edition in an undergraduate curriculum affected the knowledge, skills, and attitudes towards patient safety in a graduate entry Portuguese Medical School. Methods: After receiving formal recognition by the WHO as a Complementary Test Site and approval of the organizational ethics committee , the validated pre-course questionnaires measuring the knowledge, skills, and attitudes to patient safety were administered to the 2nd and3rd year students pursuing a four-year course (N = 46). The key modules of the curriculum were implemented over the academic year by employing a variety of learning strategies including expert lecturers, small group problem-based teaching sessions, and Simulation Laboratory sessions. The identical questionnaires were then administered and the impact was measured. The Curriculum Guide was evaluated as a health education tool in this context. Results: A significant number of the respondents, 47 % (n = 22), reported having received some form of prior patient safety training. The effect on Patient Safety Knowledge was assessed by using the percentage of correct pre- and post-course answers to construct 2 × 2 contingency tables and by applying Fishers’ test (two-tailed). No significant differences were detected (p < 0.05). To assess the effect of the intervention on Patient Safety skills and attitudes, the mean and standard deviation were calculated for the pre and post-course responses, and independent samples were subjected to Mann-Whitney’s test. The attitudinal survey indicated a very high baseline incidence of desirable attitudes and skills toward patient safety. Significant changes were detected (p < 0.05) regarding what should happen if an error is made (p = 0.016), the role of healthcare organizations in error reporting (p = 0.006), and the extent of medical error (p = 0.005). Conclusions: The implementation of selected modules of the WHO Patient Safety Curriculum was associated with a number of positive changes regarding patient safety skills and attitudes, with a baseline incidence of highly desirable patient safety attitudes, but no measureable change on the patient safety knowledge, at the University of Algarve Medical School. The significance of these results is discussed along with implications and suggestions for future research.

Finding the hidden influencers

This thesis is a first step in the search for the characteristics of funders, and the underlying motivation that drives them to participate in crowdfunding. The purpose of the study is to identify demographics and psychographics that influence a funder’s willingness to financially support a crowdfunding project (WFS). Crowdfunding, crowdsourcing and donation literature are combined to create a conceptual model in which age, gender, altruism and income, together with several control variables, are expected to have an influence on a funder’s WFS. Primary data collection was conducted using a survey, and a dataset of 175 potential crowdfunders was created. The data is analysed using a multiple regression and provided several interesting results. First of all, age and gender have a significant effect on WFS, males and young adults until the age of 30 have a higher intention to give money to crowdfunding projects. Second, altruism is significantly positively related to WFS, meaning that the funders do not just care about the potential rewards they could receive, but also about the benefits that they create for the entrepreneur and the people affected by the crowdfunding project. Third, the moderation effect of income was found to be insignificant in this model. It shows that income does not affect the strength of the relationship between the age, gender and altruism, and WFS. This study provides important theoretical contributions by, to the best of my knowledge, being the first study to quantitatively investigate the characteristics of funders and using the funder as the unit of analysis. Moreover, the study provides important insights for entrepreneurs who wish to target the crowd better in order to attract and retain more funders, thereby increasing the chance of success of their project.