Mota-Engil new prospects of growth: Overcoming the financial crisis

The 2008 global financial crisis caused the collapse of business key sectors, declines in consumer wealth and a fall in economic activity resulting in a global recession. In some European countries, the 2008 crisis contributed to a sovereign-debt crisis which had a strong impact in Southern European countries. The construction sector was particularly affected, with budget cuts disturbing public investment and no financing available for private constructors. This report intends to explain how Mota-Engil, faced this situation of low growth, and which strategies were adopted by the management to overcome the difficult economic conjecture, mainly in its domestic market: Portugal. The report is organized as a case-study. The first part, the case narrative, is subdivided into 6 parts, and the second part is the teaching note. The teaching note is constituted by the four questions and their respective responses.

How bank business models relate with risk?: The case of Portugal in times of financial crisis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on the recovering from the financial crisis: Equity returns of the banking sector

This paper analyses, through a dynamic panel data model, the impact of the Financial and the European Debt crisis on the equity returns of the banking system. The model is also extended to specifically investigate the impact on countries who received rescue packages. The sample under analysis considers eleven countries from January 2006 to June 2013. The main conclusion is that there was in fact a structural change in banks’ excess returns due to the outbreak of the European Debt Crisis, when stock markets were still recovering from the Financial Crisis of 2008.

The role of deposit insurance and bank’s asset size in the 2008 financial crisis

In this paper we analyze the role of deposit insurance in providing the market with liquidity in times of financial turmoil. To do so, we look at the variation in insured and uninsured deposits between 2005Q3 and 2011Q3, controlling for liquidity, solvency and capital adequacy indicators, and find evidence that deposit insurance does provide some confidence in keeping funds in banks in times of turmoil. Additionally we follow an event study methodology to assess the impact of deposit insurance oriented policies on bank holding companies stock market returns, and find a TBTF effect.

Consumer perception of CSR in Portugal: The aftermath of the financial crisis

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) literature has largely neglected consumers’ perceptions in the debate regarding the role of CSR in the aftermath of the financial crisis. In that context, this study aims to test the possibility that consumers’ perceptions of CSR level, firm reputation and brand trust, might depend on the type of industry sector of a firm, the level of fit of an initiative or both. By conducting a survey on Portuguese consumers and running a two-way analysis of variance, it suggests that solely the type of industry sector has an effect on consumer perception and that consumers are less tolerable of controversial industries.

Shiva's dance: Crisis, local institutions and private firms

The uneven spatial distribution of start-ups and their respective survival may reflect comparative advantages resulting from the local institutional background. For the first time, we explore this idea using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to assess the relative efficiency of Portuguese municipalities in this specific context. We depart from the related literature where expenditure is perceived as a desirable input by choosing a measure of fiscal responsibility and infrastructural variables in the first stage. Comparing results for 2006 and 2010, we find that mean performance decreased substantially 1) with the effects of the Global Financial Crisis, 2) as municipal population increases and 3) as financial independence decreases. A second stage is then performed employing a double-bootstrap procedure to evaluate how the regional context outside the control of local authorities (e.g. demographic characteristics and political preferences) impacts on efficiency.

The optimization of the complaints management system

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Search-for-yield in Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds and monetary policy

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy on mutual fund risk taking using a sample of Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds in the 2000-2012 period. Firstly I estimate time-varying measures of risk exposure (betas) for the individual funds, for the benchmark portfolio, as well as for a representative equally-weighted portfolio, through 24-month rolling regressions of a two-factor model with two systematic risk factors: interest rate risk (TERM) and default risk (DEF). Next, in the second phase, using the estimated betas, I try to understand what portion of the risk exposure is in excess of the benchmark (active risk) and how it relates to monetary policy proxies (one-month rate, Taylor residual, real rate and first principal component of a cross-section of government yields and rates). Using this methodology, I provide empirical evidence that Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds respond to accommodative monetary policy by significantly increasing exposure, in excess of their benchmarks, to default risk rate and slightly to interest risk rate as well. I also find that the increase in funds’ risk exposure to gain a boost in return (search-for-yield) is more pronounced following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, indicating that the current historic low interest rates may incentivize excessive risk taking. My results suggest that monetary policy affects the risk appetite of non-bank financial intermediaries.

Management consulting Winning

A few decades ago, global management consulting was considered to be one of the most attractive industries due to its abnormal high profit margins and above-average growth rates. However, after the dot-com bubble in 2000 and the last global financial crisis, firms folded and growth rates declined sharply. In an attempt to overcome the uncertainty and information volatility, internationalization is commonly cited as a good strategy. WMC, a Portuguese SME founded in 2012, has now decided to expand its management consulting services. Therefore, a scoring model was created to assess selected European countries’ attractiveness taking into consideration macro and microeconomic data. Results show that Spain is the best option at the moment, mainly because it is where the company has the larger number of projects already developed and is more likely to leverage its network.

Continuidade e mudança. O sistema internacional no post‐Guerra Fria

O fim da Guerra Fria é um caso inédito de mudança pacífica da estrutura internacional, em que os Estados Unidos e a União Soviética transcendem a divisão bipolar para decidir os termos da paz no quadro das instituições que definem o modelo de ordenamento multilateral, consolidando a sua legitimidade. Nesse contexto, ao contrário dos casos precedentes de reconstrução internacional no fim de uma guerra hegemónica, o novo sistema do post-Guerra Fria, caracterizado pela unipolaridade, pela regionalização e pela homogeneização, forma-se num quadro de continuidade institucional. A ordem política do post-Guerra Fria é um sistema misto em que as tensões entre a hierarquia unipolar e a anarquia multipolar, a integração global e a fragmentação regional e a homogeneidade e a heterogeneidade política, ideológica e cultural condicionam as estratégias das potências. As crises internacionais vão pôr à prova a estabilidade da nova ordem e a sua capacidade para garantir mudanças pacíficas. A primeira década do post-Guerra Fria mostra a preponderância dos Estados Unidos e a sua confiança crescente, patente nas Guerras do Golfo Pérsico e dos Balcãs, bem como na crise dos Estreitos da Formosa. A reacção aos atentados do "11 de Setembro" revela uma tentação imperial da potência unipolar, nomeadamente com a invasão do Iraque, que provoca uma crise profunda da comunidade de segurança ocidental. A vulnerabilidade do centro da ordem internacional é confirmada pela crise constitucional europeia e pela crise financeira global. Essas crises não alteram a estrutura de poder mas aceleram a erosão da ordem multilateral e criam um novo quadro de possibilidades para a evolução internacional, que inclui uma escalada dos conflitos num quadro de multipolaridade regional, uma nova polarização entre as potências democráticas conservadoras e uma coligação revisionista autoritária, bem como a restauração de um concerto entre as principais potências internacionais.

Mental health and the crisis: Evidence from share

Mental health constitutes a significant share of the global burden of disease. It is shaped to a great extent by socioeconomic factors and is vulnerable to external shocks. The recent financial crisis brought about stressors prone to trigger and aggravate mental illnesses. This project presents a micro analysis of the effect of the economic crisis on mental health in eleven European countries, through the estimation of individual health production functions accounting for socioeconomic controls and macroeconomic indicators. We find that mental health has deteriorated since 2007, even though the development of depression episodes is unchanged. Additionally, his variation can be partially attributed to economic recession and budgetary cuts in health spending.

Rethinking the Portuguese banking sector in a post-crisis context

As the financial crisis hit the Portuguese banks, the profitability of the whole sector squeezed to historical minimums. Reinventing the banking business model in the post-crisis context is an overriding issue to achieve sustainable profits and a low cost-to-income ratio. We propose banks to adopt a true multichannel approach, proceeding to a branch network reformatting and a relocation of services to online channels; adopt a true customer-centric approach and reduce the product and services portfolio complexity; finally, industrialize operations and rationalize the structure. With these measures in place, Portuguese banks will become leaner and more efficient, aspiring to a cost-to-income ratio below 45%.

Health systems efficiency after the crisis in the OECD

This work evaluates the efficiency position of the health system of each OECD country. It identifies whether, or not, health systems changed in terms of quality and performance after the financial crisis. The health systems performance was calculated by fixed-effects estimator and by stochastic frontier analysis. The results suggest that many of those countries that the crisis affected the most are more efficient than the OECD average. In addition, some of those countries even managed to reach the top decile in the efficiency ranking. Finally, we analyze the stochastic frontier efficiency scores together with other health indicators to evaluate the health systems’ overall adjustments derived from the crisis.

Stops and bonanzas in the EU: Does being part of the Euro Area make a difference?

In this paper, we investigate whether being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza of capital flows. Our sample period is from 1995 until 2014. We identify these two phenomena and we evaluate which push and pull factors help predict the conditional probability of experiencing one of them. We find that most countries had significant capital inflows until 2008 and that there were more sudden stops during the recent financial crisis than in any other moment in our sample. The factors that better help forecast the conditional probability of a sudden stop are global uncertainty (represented by the push factor “Volatility Index”), and the domestic economic activity (pull factors “GDP growth” and “consumer confidence”). An indicator of country risk (pull factor “change in credit rating”) is the most significant one for predicting bonanzas. Ultimately, we find no evidence that being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza.

An equity wealth preservation strategy: Following the macro trend

Financial crisis have happened in the past and will continue to do so in the future. In the most recent 2008 crisis, global equities (as measured by the MSCI ACWI index) lost a staggering 54.2% in USD, on the year. During those periods wealth preservation becomes at the top of most investor’s concerns. The purpose of this paper is to develop a strategy that protects the investment during bear markets and significant market corrections, generates capital appreciation, and that can support Millennium BCP’s Wealth Management Unit on their asset allocation procedures. This strategy extends the Dual Momentum approach introduced by Gary Antonacci (2014) in two ways. First, the investable set of securities in the equities space increases from two to four. Besides the US it will comprise the Japanese, European (excl. UK) and EM equity indices. Secondly, it adds a volatility filter as well as three indicators related to the business cycle and the state of the economy, which are relevant to decide on the strategy’s exposure to equities. Overall the results attest the resiliency of the strategy before, during and after historical financial crashes, as it drastically reduces the downside exposure and consistently outperforms the benchmark index by providing higher mean returns with lower variance.