Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Exposição profissional a chumbo : utilização da protoporfirina-zinco (PPZ) na vigilância de saúde de trabalhadores ex

Resumo Uma estratégia de avaliação e prevenção de riscos na exposição a agentes químicos deve ter sempre em conta que a vigilância do ambiente de trabalho e a da saúde dos trabalhadores são aspectos complementares de uma mesma realidade – os riscos resultantes da interacção entre um agente químico e os trabalhadores a ele expostos. Se à Vigilância Ambiental compete apreciar o risco, pela caracterização do agente no ambiente de trabalho, a Vigilância Biológica pronuncia-se sobre a interacção entre o tóxico e o organismo, avaliando a resposta à agressão química e a evolução das reacções de adaptação ou de desajuste face à absorção do tóxico. Os Indicadores Biológicos, deste modo, assumem um estatuto de instrumento privilegiado na vigilância da saúde dos trabalhadores expostos, na medida em que medem a quantidade de tóxico que efectivamente penetrou e foi absorvido, ou o resultado (efeito) determinado por essa mesma dose. O presente estudo procura contribuir para a definição de um quadro metodológico de utilização dos Indicadores Biológicos na avaliação/gestão da exposição profissional ao chumbo, designadamente apreciando a variação da protoporfirina-zinco (PPZ), indicador até ao presente ainda não utilizado em Portugal. O chumbo é um metal de ocorrência natural, cujos níveis nos diversos ecossistemas resultam, principalmente, das actividades antropogénicas de natureza doméstica e industrial. A sua capacidade poluente é assinalável, representando uma fonte de exposição permanente para o homem, demonstrável pela sua constante presença no organismo apesar de não desempenhar qualquer tipo de função fisiológica. São actualmente inúmeras as suas aplicações, tornando a exposição profissional ao chumbo uma realidade vasta: indústrias de acumuladores eléctricos, de vidros, de plásticos e de munições, construção civil, manutenção e reparação automóvel e de navios, fabrico de tintas, indústrias electrónicas, fundições e actividades de soldadura são, entre outras, situações onde é uma realidade a ter em conta. A penetração dos compostos inorgânicos de chumbo no organismo efectua-se principalmente por via respiratória, não sendo, no entanto, desprezável, a sua penetração por via digestiva. As partículas absorvidas são transportadas pelo sangue principalmente ligadas aos eritrocitos (95%), distribuem-se pelos tecidos moles e depositam-se essencialmente no tecido ósseo, onde representam mais de 90% da carga corporal do total absorvido e tendo aí um elevado tempo de semi-vida (mais de 20 anos). Não é metabolizado no organismo e a sua eliminação efectua-se essencialmente por via renal,sendo igualmente excretado, em menor escala, através das fezes, do suor, da saliva, das faneras e do leite materno. O conhecimento científico evidencia que concentrações sanguíneas de chumbo entre 20 e 50 mg/dL são susceptíveis de determinar efeitos adversos no homem, podendo ser afectados o sistema hematopoiético, o sistema nervoso, o sistema cardiovascular, o sistema reprodutor e o sistema imunitário. Contudo, ainda muito há a clarificar no âmbito da toxicidade do chumbo. Os níveis de exposição a que correspondem as alterações nos diversos órgãos e sistemas continuam a ser motivo de alguma controvérsia. As características carcinogénicas e mutagénicas do chumbo são, ainda, um campo de vasta exigência de investigação. A intoxicação por chumbo e seus sais (Saturnismo) de origem ocupacional é reconhecida em Portugal como doença profissional (grupo 1 - Doenças Provocadas por Agentes Químicos, da Lista das Doenças Profissionais). É uma intoxicação do tipo crónico, fruto da absorção contínua de doses relativamente pequenas durante longo período, evidenciando-se no seu início por sinais e sintomas vagos e difusos de grande inespecificidade, que podem incluir, nomeadamente, perda de apetite, sabor metálico na boca, palidez, mal-estar e fadiga, cefaleias, mialgias e artralgias, irritabilidade, tremores finos, obstipação, cólicas abdominais, insónias, déficit da memória de curto prazo e da capacidade de concentração. Um importante conjunto de indicadores biológicos pode ser utilizado na vigilância periódica da saúde de trabalhadores nestas condições de exposição. Tais indicadores (de dose ou de efeito), encerram diferentes significados e comportam distintas exigências, competindo ao Médico do Trabalho, no âmbito dos programas de prevenção dos efeitos adversos relacionados com a exposição profissional a chumbo, seleccionar a sua utilização e interpretar a sua informação, de modo a avaliar a interacção do tóxico com o organismo numa fase de reversibilidade. O presente estudo envolveu 180 trabalhadores dos quais 110 apresentavam plumbémias (Pb-S) iguais ou superiores a 40 mg/dL. Além da Pb-S, a todos foi doseada a protoporfirina-zinco (PPZ) e efectuado o Hemograma e a cerca de 25% foi determinada a concentração do ácido d-aminolevulínico urinário (ALA-U). Os doseamentos da PPZ efectuados em amostra de sangue capilar através de um hematofluorímetro portátil revelaram-se de total fiabilidade, dando significado a uma técnica de fácil execução e baixo custo. A avaliação do tipo de colheita urinária para doseamento do ALA-U concluiu pela necessidade de recurso a urinas de 24 horas.Os resultados do estudo evidenciaram uma elevada associação entre a PPZ e a Pb-S, com uma maior magnitude e de início mais precoce do que o que registado na associação da Pb-S com o ALA-U. Revelaram, ainda, fracos níveis de associação da hemoglobina (e outros parâmetros hematológicos) com a Pb-S. E demonstraram para um cut-off de 100 mg/ dL de PPZ, taxa de falsos negativos e falsos positivos, para plumbémias a partir de 70 mg/dL, inferiores a 20%. Assim, concluiu-se que, nos protocolos de vigilância de saúde de trabalhadores expostos a chumbo, o doseamento da PPZ por hematofluorímetro, em sangue de colheita capilar, é adequado, fiável e de realização preferencial em relação ao do ALA-U. Concluiu-se, também, que a realização do hemograma apenas se justifica em situações individuais que clinicamente o tornem aconselhável. E que estes protocolos devem incluir a realização da Pb-S e da PPZ, podendo, em situações de controlo rigoroso (ambiental, biológico e clínico), basear-se apenas na determinação da PPZ reservando os outros indicadores para aprofundar a investigação médica nos casos de taxas elevadas desta ou de situações limitantes. ■ Résumée Une stratégie d’évaluation et de prévention des risques d’exposition aux agents chimiques doit toujours tenir en considération que la vigilance du lieu de travail et de la santé des travailleurs sont des aspects complémentaires d’une même réalité – les risques résultant d’une interaction entre l’agent chimique et les travailleurs exposés. Si c’est à la Vigilance Ambiantale de juger le risque, par la caractérisation de l’agent dans le lieu de travail, la Vigilance Biologique, elle, se prononce sur l’interaction entre le toxique et l’organisme, évaluant la réponse à l’agression chimique et l’évolution des réactions d’adaptation ou de rupture face à l’absorption du toxique. Les Indicateurs Biologiques assument ainsi un statut d’instrument privilégié de vigilance de la santé des travailleurs exposés, dans la mesure où ils déterminent la quantité de toxique qui a effectivement été pénétré et absorbé, ou le résultat (effet) déterminé par cette dose. Cette étude-ci cherche à contribuer à la définition d’un cadre méthodologique d’utilisation des Indicateurs Biologiques dans l’évaluation/ gestion de l’exposition professionnelle au plomb inorganique, évaluant spécialement le comportement de la protoporphirine-zinc (PPZ), indicateur pas encore utilisé au Portugal.Le plomb est un métal d’occurrence naturelle dont les niveaux dans les différents écosystèmes en résultent, principalement, des activités anthropogéniques de nature domestique et industrielle. Sa capacité polluante peut être signalée, représentant une source d’exposition permanente pour l’homme, celle-ci démontrable par sa présence continue dans l’organisme, même si elle n’y accomplit aucune fonction physiologique. Actuellement ses applications sont innombrables, faisant de l’exposition professionnelle au plomb une réalité de grande ampleur : industries d’accumulateurs électriques, de verre, de plastique et de munitions, bâtiments, manutention et réparation automobile et navale, fabrication d’encres, industries électroniques, fontes et activités de soudure sont, entre autres, des situations réelles a en tenir compte. La pénétration du plomb inorganique dans l’organisme se fait principalement par voie respiratoire, pouvant se faire également par voie digestive. Les particules absorbées sont transportées par le sang, surtout liées aux érythrocytes (95%), se repartent à travers les tissus mous et se déposent essentiellement dans le tissu osseux, où elles représentent plus de 90% de la charge corporelle de ce qui a été absorbé et ont un temps de demi-vie élevé (plus de 20 ans). Le plomb n’est pas métabolisé dans l’organisme et son élimination se fait essentiellement par voie rénale, pouvant tout de même, à une moindre échelle, être excrété dans les fèces, de la sueur, de la salive, des ongles, des cheveux et du lait maternel. La connaissance scientifique met en évidence que des concentrations sanguines de plomb entre 20 et 50 mg/dL sont susceptibles de déterminer des effets adverses dans l’homme, pouvant les systèmes hématopoïétique, nerveux, cardiovasculaire, reproducteur et immunitaire en être affectés. Cependant, il en reste beaucoup à éclaircir dans le domaine de la toxicité du plomb. Les niveaux d’exposition auxquels correspondent les modifications des divers organes et systèmes, demeurent toujours sujet de quelque controverse. Les caractéristiques carcinogèniques et mutagèniques du plomb restent toujours un champ d’investigation d’une grande exigence. L’intoxication par le plomb et ses sels (Saturnisme) d’origine occupationnelle est reconnue, au Portugal, comme une maladie professionnelle (groupe 1- Maladies Provoquées par des Agents Chimiques, de la Liste des Maladies Professionnelles). C’est une intoxication du tipe chronique, due à l’absorption continue de doses relativement petites pendant une longue période, mise en évidence à travers des signes et des symptômes vagues et diffus sans grande spécificité, lesquels peuvent inclure, particulièrement, le manque d’appétit, goût métallique dans la bouche, pâleur, malaise et fatigue, céphalées, myalgies et arthralgies, irritabilité, tremblements fins, constipation, coliques abdominales, insomnies, déficit de la mémoire à court terme et de la capacité de concentration.Un ensemble important d’indicateurs biologiques peut être employé dans la vigilance périodique de la santé des travailleurs dans ces conditions d’exposition. Ces indicateurs (de dose ou d’effet) renferment différentes significations et comportent diverses exigences, devant le Médecin de Travail, dans le domaine des programmes de prévention des effets adverses qui sont en relation avec l’exposition professionnelle au plomb, sélectionner son utilisation et interpréter son information de façon à évaluer l’interaction de l’élément toxique avec l’organisme à un stade de réversibilité. L’étude ci-présent engloba 180 travailleurs desquels 110 présentaient des plombémies (Pb-S) égales ou supérieures à 40 mg/dL. À part la Pb-S, la protoporphyrine-zinc (PPZ) leur a été prise en dosage et un Hémogramme fut effectué et fut déterminé l’acide d- aminolévulinique urinaire (ALA-U) sur environ 25% des travailleurs. Le dosage de la PPZ efectué en échantillon de sang capillaire par un fluorimètre portable, s’est accomplit d’une fiabilité total, donnant du sgnificat à une téchnique de facile execution et bas prix. L’évaluation de la prise urinaire par dosage du ALA-U conclut au besoin d’un recours aux urines de 24 heures Les résultats de l’étude ont mis en évidence une association élevée entre la PPZ et la Pb- S, avec une intensité majeure et de début plus précoce par rapport à celui qui fut registré lors de l’association de la Pb-S avec la ALA-U. Ces résultats ont également montré de faibles niveaux d’association entre l’hémoglobine (et autres paramètres hématologiques) et la Pb-S. Ils ont démontré aussi, une valeur de cut-off de 100 mg/dL de PPZ, des taux de faux négatifs et faux positifs, pour des plombémies de 70 mg/dL, inférieurs à 20%. On peut donc conclure que dans les protocoles de vigilance de la santé des travailleurs exposés au plomb, le dosage de la PPZ par fluorimetrie dans le sang capillaire est adéquat, fiable et de réalisation préférentielle par rapport à celui du ALA-U. On peut également conclure que la réalisation de l’hémogramme ne se justifie que dans les cas individuels où, cliniquement, celui-ci est conseillé. De plus, ces protocoles doivent inclure la réalisation de la Pb-S et de la PPZ, pouvant, en cas de contrôle rigoureux (ambiantal, biologique et clinique), s’appuyer que dans la détermination de la PPZ réservant les autres indicateurs pour approfondir l’investigation médicale dans les cas où les taux de celle-ci sont élevés ou dans les cas de situations limitantes. ■ Summary Any strategy to evaluate and prevent the risks of chemical agents exposure must always regard the work environment and workers health as complementary aspects of one reality - the resulting risks from the interaction between the chemical agent and the exposed workers. It is the responsibility of Environmental Monitoring to evaluate the risks of exposure by the characterization of the chemical agent in the work environment. Biological Monitoring, on the other hand, pronounces itself over the toxin and body interaction, evaluating human response to the chemical aggression and the body adaptations to the toxic absorption. Biological Exposure Indices (BEI) assume, therefore, a privileged status among exposed workers' health monitoring instruments, as they measure the actual penetrated and absorbed toxic quantity and the effect it produces. This research study aims to contribute to the definition of a methodological strategy on the utilization of BEI’s in evaluating inorganic lead's occupational exposure, more specifically appreciating the zinc protoporphyrin (ZPP) variation, an index that has never been taken under consideration in Portugal until now. Lead is a natural metal whose ecosystem’s levels are mainly due to domestic and industrial anthropogenic activities. Its pollutant capacity is notable, representing a permanent exposure risk shown by its constant presence in the human body, although it has no physiologic function. Nowadays, lead's applications are countless, turning its professional exposure a huge reality: storage batteries industries, glass industries, plasterers and munitions industries, building construction, ships and motor car maintenance and repairing, ink manufacture, electronics industries, foundries and other soldering activities are, among so many other, realities to attend to. Respiration is the main cause of human body's inorganic lead absorption, although digestive pathway must not to be ignored. The absorbed particles are transported by blood, essentially bounded to erythrocytes (95%). It is distributed by soft tissues and settled mainly on bone tissues, where it represents approximately 90% of the total body charge and has a high half-life time (more than 20 years). It is not metabolized by the organism, its elimination being effectuated by renal activity and, in smaller scale, through lees, sweat, saliva, nails, hair and maternal milk.Scientific knowledge shows that concentrations of lead in blood between 20 e 50 mg/dL are susceptible to determine adverse effects in man and able to affect the hematopoietic system, the nervous system, the cardiovascular system, the reproductive system and the immunological system. Nevertheless, there's still much to be learned and clarified about lead's toxicity. The correlation between exposure levels and human's systems and organs alteration levels continues to be a centre of controversies. Still, lead's carcinogenic and mutagenic characteristics continue to be a high demanding research field. Intoxication by lead and its compounds (saturnism), from occupational origin, is recognized in Portugal as an occupational disease, included in Group 1 - Chemical Agents Caused Diseases, on the Occupational Diseases List. It is a chronic intoxication caused by a continuous absorption of small doses, throughout a long period of time. Its signs and symptoms are diffuse and imprecise, of great unspecificity, such as loss of appetite, metallic flavor in the mouth, paleness, ailment and fatigue, headaches, myalgia and arthralgia, irritability, thin tremors, constipation, abdominal pain, insomnias, short memory loses and inability to concentrate. A considered number of BEI’s can be used in Periodic Health Monitoring of workers in such exposure conditions. Such BEI (dose indices or effect indices) provide different meanings and imply different procedures, being Occupational Doctors responsibility, in the context of lead related adverse effects preventive programmes, to select and interpret its information, in order to evaluate the interaction between toxic and organism in a reversible phase of the toxic action. The present research study involved 180 workers, 110 of which presented blood lead levels (PbB) above or equal to 40 mg/dL. Besides PbB, all workers has been evaluated for zinc protoporphyrin levels (PPZ) and submitted to a haemogram. About 25% of the workers were selected for d-aminolevulinic urinary acid (ALA-U) determination. The evaluation of PPZ, by a portable hematofluorometer using capillary blood samples, turned out to be an easy procedure with low costs and total warrantability. As in regard for ALA- U procedure, it was concluded the necessity of 24 hours urine samples. This research results underlined a strong connection between ZPP and PbB, which was found to to be stringer and to begin earlier than it was registered for PbB and ALA-U association. The same study also revealed a low association level between PbB and hemoglobin or other hematological indices. It was also verified less than 20% of false negatives and false positives cases when admitted a ZPP 100 mg/dL cut off value for PbB³ 70 mg/dL. As in result it was concluded that in Health Monit