Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution and conservation of endemic forest land snails of Madeira Island

Climate change is emerging as one of the major threats to natural communities of the world’s ecosystems; and biodiversity hotspots, such as Madeira Island, might face a challenging future in the conservation of endangered land snails’ species. With this thesis, progresses have been made in order to properly understand the impact of climate on these vulnerable taxa; and species distribution models coupled with GIS and climate change scenarios have become crucial to understand the relations between species distribution and environmental conditions, identifying threats and determining biodiversity vulnerability. With the use of MaxEnt, important changes in the species suitable areas were obtained. Laurel forest species, highly dependent on precipitation and relative humidity, may face major losses on their future suitable areas, leading to the possible extinction of several endangered species, such as Leiostyla heterodon. Despite the complexity of the biological systems, the intrinsic uncertainty of species distribution models and the lack of information about land snails’ functional traits, this analysis contributed to a pioneer study on the impacts of climate change on endemic species of Madeira Island. The future inclusion of predictions of the effect of climate change on species distribution as part of IUCN assessments could contribute to species prioritizing, promoting specific management actions and maximizing conservation investment.

Comparing global land cover datasets through the Eagle matrix land cover components for continental Portugal

Global land cover maps play an important role in the understanding of the Earth's ecosystem dynamic. Several global land cover maps have been produced recently namely, Global Land Cover Share (GLC-Share) and GlobeLand30. These datasets are very useful sources of land cover information and potential users and producers are many times interested in comparing these datasets. However these global land cover maps are produced based on different techniques and using different classification schemes making their interoperability in a standardized way a challenge. The Environmental Information and Observation Network (EIONET) Action Group on Land Monitoring in Europe (EAGLE) concept was developed in order to translate the differences in the classification schemes into a standardized format which allows a comparison between class definitions. This is done by elaborating an EAGLE matrix for each classification scheme, where a bar code is assigned to each class definition that compose a certain land cover class. Ahlqvist (2005) developed an overlap metric to cope with semantic uncertainty of geographical concepts, providing this way a measure of how geographical concepts are more related to each other. In this paper, the comparison of global land cover datasets is done by translating each land cover legend into the EAGLE bar coding for the Land Cover Components of the EAGLE matrix. The bar coding values assigned to each class definition are transformed in a fuzzy function that is used to compute the overlap metric proposed by Ahlqvist (2005) and overlap matrices between land cover legends are elaborated. The overlap matrices allow the semantic comparison between the classification schemes of each global land cover map. The proposed methodology is tested on a case study where the overlap metric proposed by Ahlqvist (2005) is computed in the comparison of two global land cover maps for Continental Portugal. The study resulted with the overlap spatial distribution among the two global land cover maps, Globeland30 and GLC-Share. These results shows that Globeland30 product overlap with a degree of 77% with GLC-Share product in Continental Portugal.

Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.