Application of different heuristic classes in memory-based and stimulus-based decisions

This paper studies the drivers of heuristic application in different decision types. The study compares differences in frequencies of heuristic classes' such as recognition, one-reason choice and trade-off applied in, respectively, memory-based and stimulus-based choices as well as in high and low involvement decisions. The study has been conducted online among 205 participants from 28 countries.

Comparative analysis of Spanish Banks’ Standalone credit profile

The paper studies the relationship between four differently rated bank’s financial profile and their standalone credit rating issued by Moody’s. The comparative analysis shows an example that despite their pricing power and geographical coverage, larger banks do not necessarily have better credit ratings. Instead, business model and risk appetite seem to be the defining factors of banks’ vulnerability to shocks, such as the Spanish real estate crisis. The risk-return relationship is also identified in the banks’ fundamentals meaning that while expansionary strategy in riskier asset classes enhances margins, it also potentially distorts the credit risk profile.

Derivation and consistency checking of models in early software product line engineering

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Informática

An analog model for global macro investing

This study proposes a systematic model that is able to fit the Global Macro Investing universe. The Analog Model tests the possibility of capturing the likelihood of an optimal investment allocation based on similarity across different periods in history. Instead of observing Macroeconomic data, the model uses financial markets’ variables to classify unknown short-term regimes. This methodology is particularly relevant considering that asset classes and investment strategies react differently to specific macro environment shifts.

Managing marginal capital requirements in solvency II: Analysis of a real insurance portfolio

This thesis provides a complete analysis of the Standard Capital Requirements given by Solvency II for a real insurance portfolio. We analyze the investment portfolio of BPI Vida e Pensões, an insurance company affiliated with a Portuguese bank BPI, both at security, sub-portfolio and asset class levels. By using the Standard Formula from EIOPA, Total SCR amounts to 239M€. This value is mostly explained by Market and Default Risk whereas the former is driven by Spread and Concentration Risks. Following the methodology of Leblanc (2011), we examine the Marginal Contribution of an asset to the SCR which allows for the evaluation of the risks of each security given its characteristics and interactions in the portfolio. The top contributors to the SCR are Corporate Bonds and Term Deposits. By exploring further the composition of the portfolio, our results show that slight changes in allocation of Term and Cash Deposits have severe impacts on the total Concentration and Default Risks, respectively. Also, diversification effects are very relevant by representing savings of 122M€. Finally, Solvency II represents an opportunity for the portfolio optimization. By constructing efficient frontiers, we find that as the target expected return increases, a shift from Term Deposits/ Commercial Papers to Eurozone/Peripheral and finally Equities occurs.

Carry and trend-following strategies

Recent research has shown that carry and trend strategies when combined lead to significant risk-adjusted returns that can be very attractive to investors, at a low cost with small and positive skewness. This study proposes to combine both carry and trend-following, considering a data set of ten years (09/2005-09/2015), within a portfolio composed by three major asset classes: currencies, commodities and equity indices. Following a futures-based methodology, the obtained results show that, indeed, the strategy results inevitably in higher returns and greater sharpe ratios for every asset class in study. This outcome results from the fact that trend proved to provide a significant hedge to the downside risk that carry is exposed to.