The establishment mode choice of German multinational enterprises in Brazil: A comparative approach

We examine the drivers behind the establishment mode choice of German multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the sectors of Automotive, Chemicals and Mechanical Engineering in Brazil for the years 1993-2013 using a novel sample of primary data obtained directly from German MNEs. Based on prevalent theories found in the literature, we test the most common hypotheses on our sample. Firms with high R&D activities and firms with prior market knowledge in Brazil in from of previous sales offices are more likely to enter Brazil by a Greenfield investment. We also show that it is the specific private ownership of the German so-called hidden champions that drive those specific SMEs to enter Brazil by Greenfield, a sneaking suspicion that has been made before. Finally, we show that the establishment mode choice between Brazil and the USA only deviates to a low extent, with German MNEs preferring to enter Brazil by Greenfield and the USA by M&A. Thereby, we provide valuable insights for future research in this field.

The Portuguese contemporary art as an investment

In this paper we investigate what drives the prices of Portuguese contemporary art at auction and explore the potential of art as an asset. Based on a hedonic prices model we construct an Art Price Index as a proxy for the Portuguese contemporary art market over the period of 1994 to 2014. A performance analysis suggests that art underperforms the S&P500 but overperforms the Portuguese stock market and American Government bonds. However, It does it at the cost of higher risk. Results also show that art as low correlation with financial markets, evidencing some potential in risk mitigation when added to traditional equity portfolios.

Doenças raras na Ilha de S. Miguel : caracterização epidemiológica

RESUMO:O conceito de doenças raras como entidade própria começou a ser divulgado na comunidade médica no início deste século. A perspectiva de congregar múltiplas patologias, com características diferentes, valorizando a baixa frequência com que ocorrem na população interessou a comunidade científica, famílias, indústria e serviços de saúde. Esperava-se encontrar estratégias para melhorar a qualidade dos cuidados de saúde prestados a estes doentes. Uma vez que a informação científica sobre doenças raras está dispersa por diversas fontes o primeiro grande desafio foi sistematizar de forma a obter o “estado da arte”. A investigação que decorreu entre 2001 e 2010 teve como objectivo principal a caracterização dos doentes e das doenças raras numa população com características restritas mas não fechada como é o caso da ilha de S. Miguel nos Açores. Foram identificados 467 doentes a partir de várias fontes e monitorizado o nascimento de recém-nascidos com doença rara durante 10 anos. A prevalência das doenças raras encontrada na ilha de S. Miguel foi de 0,34% e a inerente à definição de doença rara foi de 6 % a 8 % da população na União Europeia. A diferença encontrada poderá decorrer de se ter sobrestimado o verdadeiro valor da prevalência das doenças raras na União Europeia. A incidência de doenças raras determinada na amostra foi de 0,1% e a taxa de mortalidade por causa específica foi de 0,14‰. O diagnóstico foi confirmado por técnicas laboratoriais de citogenética ou genética molecular em 43% dos doentes da amostra. Não foi identificado nenhum agregado populacional com doença rara para além do já conhecido para a DMJ. A criação de uma metodologia de estudo implicou a construção de um registo de doentes. Para tal foi utilizado o conhecimento adquirido anteriormente sobre uma doença rara que serviu de paradigma: a doença de Machado-Joseph. Na sequência dos resultados obtidos foi considerado útil a introdução de variáveis como a figura do cuidador, o cônjuge, o número de filhos do casal, a data da primeira consulta de Genética, o tempo decorrido entre o início dos sintomas e o acesso à consulta de Genética e entre esta actividade e dispor do diagnóstico para melhor compreender o contexto de vida destes doentes na perspectiva de poderem vir a ser incorporadas como indicadores. ----------- ABSTRACT: The concept of rare diseases as a condition began to be disclosed in the medical community at the beginning of this century.The prospect of bringing together multiple pathologies, with different features, enhancing the low frequency with which they occur in the population interested the scientific community, families, industry and health care services. The aim was to find strategies to improve the quality of care provided to these patients. Given that the scientific information on rare diseases is spread out across several sources the first major challenge was to systematize in order to get the "state of the art". The research took place between 2001 and 2010 and had as its main objective the characterization of patients and rare diseases in a population with specific features, but not confined, like in the case of the São Miguel Island in Azores. During 10 years were identified 467 patients from multiple sources and were observed the newborns with rare diseases. Prevalence of rare diseases found in the São Miguel Island was 0,34% compared to the 6% to 8% by definition of rare disease in the population in European Union. This discrepancy may be explained by a likely frequency of overrated rare diseases in European Union. The incidence of rare diseases in the sample was 0,1% and the specific mortality rate was 0,14 ‰. This diagnosis was confirmed by cytogenetic or molecular genetics analysis in 43% of patients in the sample. No population cluster was identified with rare disease besides the already known for Machado-Joseph Disease. The methodology for the study involved the construction of a database of patients. For such purpose it was used previously acquired knowledge on a rare disease paradigm: the Machado-Joseph disease. It was useful to introduce the following variables to properly establish the results: caregiver, spouse, number of children, date of first Genetics appointment, elapsed time between onset of symptoms and access to first appointment as well as this and the final diagnosis to better understand the context of life of these patients in order to incorporate them as rates.

Desigualdades na diabetes mellitus e hipertensão arterial: um estudo ao nível de freguesia

RESUMO - Introdução: A diabetes mellitus e a hipertensão arterial são problemas de saúde de elevada prevalência em Portugal. A sua distribuição geográfica e social é pouco conhecida, comprometendo o desenho e implementação de políticas de saúde. Assim, este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar a existência das desigualdades socioeconómicas na prevalência de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 e de hipertensão arterial, na população residente na região Norte de Portugal, no ano de 2013. Métodos: Foi realizado um estudo ecológico que analisou as 2028 freguesias da região Norte. Os dados foram obtidos através do Sistema de Informação das Administrações Regionais de Saúde e do Censos 2011. A associação entre os indicadores socioeconómicos e a prevalência destas doenças foi medida através da diferença de prevalências, do risco atribuível populacional, do índice relativo de desigualdades e pelo coeficiente de regressão. Resultados: A prevalência de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 e hipertensão arterial foi de 6,16% e 19,35%, respetivamente, e apresentou uma distribuição heterogénea entre freguesias (variando entre 0%-23,7% para a diabetes e 2,8%-66,7% para a hipertensão). A prevalência de ambas as doenças estava significativamente associada com o baixo nível educacional, baixa atividade em sector terciário, desemprego e baixo rendimento (com diferença de prevalências entre decis opostos de até 1,3% na diabetes e até 5,3% na hipertensão). Os determinantes socioeconómicos foram responsáveis até 20% da prevalência destas doenças na população. Conclusão: Estes resultados demonstram a existência de uma distribuição socioeconómica e geográfica heterogéneas e a necessidade de criação de políticas de saúde que atuem nas freguesias menos favorecidas.

Carry and trend-following strategies

Recent research has shown that carry and trend strategies when combined lead to significant risk-adjusted returns that can be very attractive to investors, at a low cost with small and positive skewness. This study proposes to combine both carry and trend-following, considering a data set of ten years (09/2005-09/2015), within a portfolio composed by three major asset classes: currencies, commodities and equity indices. Following a futures-based methodology, the obtained results show that, indeed, the strategy results inevitably in higher returns and greater sharpe ratios for every asset class in study. This outcome results from the fact that trend proved to provide a significant hedge to the downside risk that carry is exposed to.

Assessment of NDVI, land surface temperature and precipitation anomalies for drought monitoring in Bayankhongor province, Mongolia

During the last decade Mongolia’s region was characterized by a rapid increase of both severity and frequency of drought events, leading to pasture reduction. Drought monitoring and assessment plays an important role in the region’s early warning systems as a way to mitigate the negative impacts in social, economic and environmental sectors. Nowadays it is possible to access information related to the hydrologic cycle through remote sensing, which provides a continuous monitoring of variables over very large areas where the weather stations are sparse. The present thesis aimed to explore the possibility of using NDVI as a potential drought indicator by studying anomaly patterns and correlations with other two climate variables, LST and precipitation. The study covered the growing season (March to September) of a fifteen year period, between 2000 and 2014, for Bayankhongor province in southwest Mongolia. The datasets used were MODIS NDVI, LST and TRMM Precipitation, which processing and analysis was supported by QGIS software and Python programming language. Monthly anomaly correlations between NDVI-LST and NDVI-Precipitation were generated as well as temporal correlations for the growing season for known drought years (2001, 2002 and 2009). The results show that the three variables follow a seasonal pattern expected for a northern hemisphere region, with occurrence of the rainy season in the summer months. The values of both NDVI and precipitation are remarkably low while LST values are high, which is explained by the region’s climate and ecosystems. The NDVI average, generally, reached higher values with high precipitation values and low LST values. The year of 2001 was the driest year of the time-series, while 2003 was the wet year with healthier vegetation. Monthly correlations registered weak results with low significance, with exception of NDVI-LST and NDVI-Precipitation correlations for June, July and August of 2002. The temporal correlations for the growing season also revealed weak results. The overall relationship between the variables anomalies showed weak correlation results with low significance, which suggests that an accurate answer for predicting drought using the relation between NDVI, LST and Precipitation cannot be given. Additional research should take place in order to achieve more conclusive results. However the NDVI anomaly images show that NDVI is a suitable drought index for Bayankhongor province.