Three essays on economics of predictability of stock returns

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

Microstructural changes befor macroeconomic announcements: Predictability of economic surprises in the U.S. market

Flow of new information is what produces price changes, understanding if the market is unbalanced is fundamental to know how much inventory market makers should keep during an important economic release. After identifying which economic indicators impact the S&P and 10 year Treasuries. The Volume Synchronized Probability of Information-Based Trading (VPIN) will be used as a predictability measure. The results point to some predictability power over economic surprises of the VPIN metric, mainly when calculated using the S&P. This finding appears to be supported when analysing depth imbalance before economic releases. Inferior results were achieved when using treasuries. The final aim of this study is to fill the gap between microstructural changes and macroeconomic events.

Brazilian equity risk premium analysis: A macroeconomic approach

Double Degree Masters in Economics Program from Insper and NOVA School of Business and Economics

A equidade na indeminização dos danos não patrimoniais

This study examines the quantification of compensation for non-pecuniary damage, awarded by means of judicial decisions based on equity, and seeks to verify whether such calculation safeguards legal certainty and predictability when applying the law, as well as whether it observes the principles of proportionality and equality. Firstly, the limits for discretionary judgment permitted to the judge were determined, by evaluating the criteria established under the law. Then, by examining the grounds of the judicial decisions in cases that had been selected beforehand, this study sought to detect operation modes in concrete considerations of equity used by judges. The examination of the grounds on which these judicial decisions are based permitted the comprehension of the calculation method used in each case and the observation that the criteria of compensatory nature, such as the extent of the damage and the respective consequences, assumed a primary role. Despite discrepancies in viewpoints with regard to certain issues of law, the jurisprudence examined reveals that great care is taken to consider the solutions reached in similar cases, in an attempt to ensure that the different criteria applied in the quantification of compensation are given uniform relevance. The comparison of decisions, reported to cases with similar legal contours, did not reveal relevant discrepancies in the calculation criteria used, nor are they disproportionate regarding the amount of compensation awarded, which means that resorting to equity, in determining the compensation to be awarded due to nonpecuniary damage, does not jeopardize legal certainty or predictability when applying the law, and observes the principle of proportionality, which is anchored in the constitutional principle of equality. The study performed, led to the conclusion that the grounds on which judicial decisions are based, by itemising the elements which are taken into account and the criteria adopted by the judge, allow these to be taken into consideration in similar cases, contributing towards uniform interpretation and application of the law, ensuring legal certainty and predictability when resorting to equity while quantifying compensation.

MarketOpolis: A market simulation based on investors decisions

This study aims to replicate Apple’s stock market movement by modeling major investment profiles and investors. The present model recreates a live exchange to forecast any predictability in stock price variation, knowing how investors act when it concerns investment decisions. This methodology is particularly relevant if, just by observing historical prices and knowing the tendencies in other players’ behavior, risk-adjusted profits can be made. Empirical research made in the academia shows that abnormal returns are hardly consistent without a clear idea of who is in the market in a given moment and the correspondent market shares. Therefore, even when knowing investors’ individual investment profiles, it is not clear how they affect aggregate markets.

Understanding impact readiness in Portugal’s social sector and designing a framework for capacity-building for social impact

This project is based on the theme of capacity-building in social organisations to improve their impact readiness, which is the predictability of delivering intended outcomes. All organisations which have a social mission, non-profit or for-profit, will be considered to fall within the social sector for the purpose of this work. The thesis will look at (i) what is impact readiness and what are the considerations for building impact readiness in social organisations, (ii) what is the international benchmark in measuring and building impact readiness, (iii) understand the impact readiness of Portuguese social organisations and the supply of capacity building for social impact in Portugal currently, and (iv) provide recommendations on the design of a framework for capacity building for impact readiness adapted to the Portuguese context. This work is of particular relevance to the Social Investment Laboratory, which is a sponsor of this project, in its policy work as part of the Portuguese Social Investment Taskforce (the “Taskforce”). This in turn will inform its contribution to the set-up of Portugal Inovação Social, a wholesaler catalyst entity of social innovation and social investment in the country, launched in early 2015. Whilst the output of this work will be set a recommendations for wider application for capacity-building programmes in Portugal, Portugal Inovação Social will also clearly have a role in coordinating the efforts of market players – foundations, corporations, public sector and social organisations – in implementing these recommendations. In addition, the findings of this report could have relevance to other countries seeking to design capacity building frameworks in their local markets and to any impact-driven organisations with an interest in enhancing the delivery of impact within their work.