Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Contribution to drug discovery and development for tauopathies using yeast as a model

This work aimed to contribute to drug discovery and development (DDD) for tauopathies, while expanding our knowledge on this group of neurodegenerative disorders, including Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Using yeast, a recognized model for neurodegeneration studies, useful models were produced for the study of tau interaction with beta-amyloid (Aβ), both AD hallmark proteins. The characterization of these models suggests that these proteins co-localize and that Aβ1-42, which is toxic to yeast, is involved in tau40 phosphorylation (Ser396/404) via the GSK-3β yeast orthologue, whereas tau seems to facilitate Aβ1-42 oligomerization. The mapping of tau’s interactome in yeast, achieved with a tau toxicity enhancer screen using the yeast deletion collection, provided a novel framework, composed of 31 genes, to identify new mechanisms associated with tau pathology, as well as to identify new drug targets or biomarkers. This genomic screen also allowed to select the yeast strain mir1Δ-tau40 for development of a new GPSD2TM drug discovery screening system. A library of unique 138 marine bacteria extracts, obtained from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge hydrothermal vents, was screened with mir1Δ-tau40. Three extracts were identified as suppressors of tau toxicity and constitute good starting points for DDD programs. mir1Δ strain was sensitive to tau toxicity, relating tau pathology with mitochondrial function. SLC25A3, the human homologue of MIR1, codes for the mitochondrial phosphate carrier protein (PiC). Resorting to iRNA, SLC25A3 expression was silenced in human neuroglioma cells, as a first step towards the engineering of a neural model for replicating the results obtained in yeast. This model is essential to understand the mechanisms of tau toxicity at the mitochondrial level and to validate PiC as a relevant drug target. The set of DDD tools here presented will foster the development of innovative and efficacious therapies, urgently needed to cope with tau-related disorders of high human and social-economic impact.