Cost-to-serve customers’ optimization: Macro project Unilever – Jerónimo Martins

The objective of this work project is to analyse and discuss the importance of the “Cost to Serve” as a differentiation key factor, by accessing cost to serve customers of a Portuguese subsidiary of a multinational company, which is operating in the sector of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) – Unilever – Jerónimo Martins (UJM). I will also suggest and quantify key proposals to decrease costs and increase customers’ value. Hence, the scope of this work project is focused on logistics and distribution processes of the company supply chain.

Macro determinants of nonperforming loans in Portugal

This study uses a VAR methodology to evaluate the impact of the macroeconomic conditions and money supply in the fluctuation of nonperforming loans for the Portuguese economy. Additionally, the feedback effect of nonperforming loans growth to the economy and specially to the credit supply is analised. The study is motived by the hypothesis that loan quality is procyclical and that the fast growth of credit supply has a positive relation with the growth of nonperforming loans. The hypothesis that nonperforming loans reinforce economic fragilities and credit market frictions is also tested. Empirical results corroborate both hypothesis presented. Hence, it was possible to establish that the macroeconomic conditions measured by GDP and unemployment and the fast growth of credit supply contribute to the development of nonperforming loans. Furthermore, the growth of nonperforming loans reinforces the economic cycle, as it contributes to the deterioration of macroeconomic conditions and creates frictions in the credit market that may results in a credit crunch.

An analog model for global macro investing

This study proposes a systematic model that is able to fit the Global Macro Investing universe. The Analog Model tests the possibility of capturing the likelihood of an optimal investment allocation based on similarity across different periods in history. Instead of observing Macroeconomic data, the model uses financial markets’ variables to classify unknown short-term regimes. This methodology is particularly relevant considering that asset classes and investment strategies react differently to specific macro environment shifts.

A bet on macro

Equity research report

An equity wealth preservation strategy: Following the macro trend

Financial crisis have happened in the past and will continue to do so in the future. In the most recent 2008 crisis, global equities (as measured by the MSCI ACWI index) lost a staggering 54.2% in USD, on the year. During those periods wealth preservation becomes at the top of most investor’s concerns. The purpose of this paper is to develop a strategy that protects the investment during bear markets and significant market corrections, generates capital appreciation, and that can support Millennium BCP’s Wealth Management Unit on their asset allocation procedures. This strategy extends the Dual Momentum approach introduced by Gary Antonacci (2014) in two ways. First, the investable set of securities in the equities space increases from two to four. Besides the US it will comprise the Japanese, European (excl. UK) and EM equity indices. Secondly, it adds a volatility filter as well as three indicators related to the business cycle and the state of the economy, which are relevant to decide on the strategy’s exposure to equities. Overall the results attest the resiliency of the strategy before, during and after historical financial crashes, as it drastically reduces the downside exposure and consistently outperforms the benchmark index by providing higher mean returns with lower variance.