Is the Basel III Leverage Ratio countercyclical? A study for Portuguese banks

This work analyses how the leverage ratio behaves through the cycle, vis-à-vis other capital ratios. For a sample of the largest Portuguese banks, the Basel III leverage ratio is indeed countercyclical. This result is relevant from a regulatory perspective, since the introduction of a limit on the leverage ratio will function as a restriction in the banks’ balance sheet size, reducing the economic costs associated with the excessive growth of leverage in periods of economic expansion followed by aggressive deleveraging in the downturn. However, one cannot exclude that restrictions on banks’ leverage incentivize its transference to less regulated intermediaries.

Leverage instability and persistence: Evidence from the United States and Europe

We find that leverage behavior both in level and time-series variation is very similar between the United States and Europe throughout the 1990-2013 period. Leverage regimes are simultaneously unstable and persistent for both regions. We define instability as the extent to which firms largely deviate from their long-term leverage mean, while persistence as the extent to which today’s leverage influences its future levels. We then show that this simultaneous evidence imply a mean-reversion behavior of leverage and discuss some of its implications for future research on this field.

CEO overconfidence and leverage ratio: Evidence from the founder members of Mila

The study investigates the impact of the managerial overconfidence bias on the capital structure of a sample of 78 firms from Chile, Peru and Colombia, during the years 1996-2014. We infer that there is a positive relation between the leverage ratio and a) the overconfidence; b) the experience and c) the male gender of the executive. Overconfidence is measured according to the status of the CEO (entrepreneur or not-entrepreneur) and the hypotheses are tested through dynamic panel data model. The empirical results show a highly significant positive correlation between overconfidence and leverage ratio and between gender and leverage ratio while, in contrast, the relation between experience and leverage ratio is negative.

Strategic marketing plan for Sant'Anna

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Dimensão internacional da democratização chilena: a influência da Argentina (1983-1990)

A vaga de democratizações que teve lugar na América Latina na década de 1980 e 1990 alterou profundamente a paisagem política do Cone Sul, pondo fim a diversos regimes autoritários naquela região. O Chile, dirigido de forma autoritária pelo general Augusto Pinochet desde 1973, foi um dos últimos países onde a transição democrática aconteceu. O processo que teve início com o plebiscito de 1988 culminou com a eleição de Patricio Aylwin, a 11 de Março de 1990 e não foi resultado apenas de esforços internos. Este estudo centra-se na dimensão internacional desse processo. Uma vez que as escassas investigações sobre esta vertente se focam no papel de grandes potências, como os Estados Unidos, e considerando a relação histórica entre Argentina e Chile, por questões também de proximidade fronteiriça, optámos por analisar, nesta dissertação, o papel da Argentina na mudança de regime no Chile. Não se trata apenas de compreender a influência argentina no processo, mas também analisar o impacto da própria democratização no país num processo semelhante no Chile. É, também, por este motivo que este estudo abarca um período temporal que se inicia em 1983 (democratização da Argentina) e termina em 1990 (ano em que o Chile muda de regime, deixando para trás o autoritarismo). Tendo por base o modelo de Levitsky & Way e os conceitos desenvolvidos por Whitehead & Schmitter, esta dissertação baseia-se num quadro analítico que parte do trabalho destes quatro autores. De Levitsky & Way, bebe duas noções-chave: o conceito de leverage (grau de vulnerabilidade de um país à influência externa) e linkage (densidade de laços transfronteiriços). De Whitehead & Schmitter recorre a três conceitos (contágio, consentimento e condicionalidade) que permitem caracterizar, de certo modo, o tipo de influência externa. Além da operacionalização do modelo, este trabalho inclui, também, um capítulo mais descritivo sobre a democratização chilena e os seus antecedentes e uma parte, também ela de cariz mais descritivo, dedicada à dimensão internacional do processo. Este estudo procura, assim, mostrar a importância do contexto internacional na democratização do Chile, alertando para a necessidade de não centrar o estudo das democratizações apenas em factores de ordem interna.

Management consulting Winning

A few decades ago, global management consulting was considered to be one of the most attractive industries due to its abnormal high profit margins and above-average growth rates. However, after the dot-com bubble in 2000 and the last global financial crisis, firms folded and growth rates declined sharply. In an attempt to overcome the uncertainty and information volatility, internationalization is commonly cited as a good strategy. WMC, a Portuguese SME founded in 2012, has now decided to expand its management consulting services. Therefore, a scoring model was created to assess selected European countries’ attractiveness taking into consideration macro and microeconomic data. Results show that Spain is the best option at the moment, mainly because it is where the company has the larger number of projects already developed and is more likely to leverage its network.

Basel III new capital requirements, impacts and bank behavior

For some years, researchers could not find a clear effect of capital adequacy on the risk profile of banks, as shareholders could increase the riskiness of the assets (qualitative effect), crowding-out the effect of reduced leverage (volume effect). Some shareholders might have the will to increase the riskiness of the assets, but they may lack the power to do so. Considering only ”powerful” shareholders, definitive conclusions were drawn but with constant ownership profile. In this paper I investigate whether there is a significant change in the type of shareholders in response to regulatory capital shocks and, if so, will the banking system be in the hands of more “desired” shareholders. I find that ownership profile responds to a regulatory shock, changing the risk appetite of the ruling power at the bank. I find more banks and the government in the ownership of undercapitalised banks and much less institutional shareholders and free float. I claim that these new shareholders may not the desired ones, given the objective of the regulatory change, as they are associated with a preference for more leverage. One possible explanation for this crowding-out effect is that regulators are trying to contain idiosyncratic risk (more linked to the riskiness of the assets) with a rule that contains systematic risk (capital adequacy). This has a distorting effect on ownership. Another insight can be drawn from the tests: supervisors should be aware of significant ownership movements that cause the crowding-out.

A new credit monitoring framework for agents' networks

The purpose of this work is to develop a practicable approach for Telecom firms to manage the credit risk exposition to their commercial agents’ network. Particularly it will try to approach the problem of credit concession to clients’ from a corporation perspective and explore the particular scenario of agents that are part of the commercial chain of the corporation and therefore are not end-users. The agents’ network that served as a model for the presented study is composed by companies that, at the same time, are both clients and suppliers of the Telecommunication Company. In that sense the credit exposition analysis must took into consideration all financial fluxes, both inbound and outbound. The current strain on the Financial Sector in Portugal, and other peripheral European economies, combined with the high leverage situation of most companies, generates an environment prone to credit default risk. Due to these circumstances managing credit risk exposure is becoming increasingly a critical function for every company Financial Department. The approach designed in the current study combined two traditional risk monitoring tools: credit risk scoring and credit limitation policies. The objective was to design a new credit monitoring framework that is more flexible, uses both external and internal relationship history to assess risk and takes into consideration commercial objectives inside the agents’ network. Although not explored at length, the blueprint of a Credit Governance model was created for implementing the new credit monitoring framework inside the telecom firm. The Telecom Company that served as a model for the present work decided to implement the new Credit Monitoring framework after this was presented to its Executive Commission.

How to invest as a private equity

This work project presents a road map for making deals under the umbrella support of a private equity investor. Fundraising, investment analysis, asset monitoring, and divestment are stages in the process that are covered in-depth and clarified in terms of action plan and procedures. Moreover, private equity brings tangible and intangible efficiency to the economy and companies, not only by providing finance to grow and expand but also by forcing superior organizational organics that foster sustainable business positions. In a world domain, Europe as been a second liner as compared to US in terms of size within the private equity sector, but it is quickly maturing and converging to US numbers. In this sense, Portugal has been improving in both numbers and regulations in order to leverage on its strategic location and position itself as a key player to address future business challenges coming from emerging markets such as Africa and Latin America.

Research study for an entrepreneurship practical guide

This thesis is a research study, which is aimed to be published later, in the form of a practical guide for those who have an idea and plan to go one step forward on the creation of a brand and/or a business. The main questions addressed are regarding the main concerns of an entrepreneur, identifiying the main topics that an entrepreneur's practical guide must approach. This work aims to provide relevant and important insights for those who want to start a business, taking in consideration some best practices, advises from entrepreneurs that have already started their own businesses and shared their experience. It means to provide a strong contribution to the Portuguese ecosystem, more specifically, startups, small companies, projects or ideas at seed or startup stage, brands, clubs, and every initiative which is starting from nothing, or almost nothing. Apart from books and online researches, primary information and testimonials were collected through an online survey, from a target audience of entrepreneurs, leading to the main findings of this study. The conclusion of this thesis is the gross index of the future startuper's practical guide, which will be divided in 4 different stages: Preparation, Implementation, Leverage and Closure.