MarketOpolis: A market simulation based on investors decisions

This study aims to replicate Apple’s stock market movement by modeling major investment profiles and investors. The present model recreates a live exchange to forecast any predictability in stock price variation, knowing how investors act when it concerns investment decisions. This methodology is particularly relevant if, just by observing historical prices and knowing the tendencies in other players’ behavior, risk-adjusted profits can be made. Empirical research made in the academia shows that abnormal returns are hardly consistent without a clear idea of who is in the market in a given moment and the correspondent market shares. Therefore, even when knowing investors’ individual investment profiles, it is not clear how they affect aggregate markets.

Predicting market movement with Artificial Neural Networks

This paper presents an application of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to the prediction of stock market direction in the US. Using a multilayer perceptron neural network and a backpropagation algorithm for the training process, the model aims at learning the hidden patterns in the daily movement of the S&P500 to correctly identify if the market will be in a Trend Following or Mean Reversion behavior. The ANN is able to produce a successful investment strategy which outperforms the buy and hold strategy, but presents instability in its overall results which compromises its practical application in real life investment decisions.

Portuguese investor profile in Poland, a managerial approach

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

EDP Renováveis (EDPR): Renewable Energy: Equity Investment Report

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Codeship: Financing growth: Case study and Teaching note

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Application of different heuristic classes in memory-based and stimulus-based decisions

This paper studies the drivers of heuristic application in different decision types. The study compares differences in frequencies of heuristic classes' such as recognition, one-reason choice and trade-off applied in, respectively, memory-based and stimulus-based choices as well as in high and low involvement decisions. The study has been conducted online among 205 participants from 28 countries.

The influence of price changes on consumers' purchase decisions

The development of an effective pricing strategy requires the acquaintance of consumers’ price perception as well as the range of elements that influence the price sensitivity. This paper analyses the relationships between product features, individual characteristics and the level of price increase/decrease that induces the consumers to change their purchase decisions. The results of a dedicated survey show, that price sensitivity, individual preferences, type of product and direction of price change and individual characteristics of consumers (gender, age, professional situation) have a significant impact on a threshold at which people are willing to choose the less attractive, but cheaper alternative to their favorite product or give up the variety in consumption. From a consumer behavior perspective, these findings play a fundamental role in pricing.

The Portuguese contemporary art as an investment

In this paper we investigate what drives the prices of Portuguese contemporary art at auction and explore the potential of art as an asset. Based on a hedonic prices model we construct an Art Price Index as a proxy for the Portuguese contemporary art market over the period of 1994 to 2014. A performance analysis suggests that art underperforms the S&P500 but overperforms the Portuguese stock market and American Government bonds. However, It does it at the cost of higher risk. Results also show that art as low correlation with financial markets, evidencing some potential in risk mitigation when added to traditional equity portfolios.

Graph usage in financial reports: Evidence from Portuguese listed companies

When assessing investment options, investors focus on the graphs of annual reports, despite lack of auditing. If poorly constructed, graphs distort perceptions and lead to inaccurate decisions. This study examines graph usage in all the companies listed on Euronext Lisbon in 2013. The findings suggest that graphs are common in the annual reports of Portuguese companies and that, while there is no evidence of Selectivity Distortion, both Measurement and Orientation Distortions are pervasive. The study recommends the auditing of financial graphs, and urges preparers and users of annual reports to be wary of the possibility of graph distortion.

Impact of mobile app user acquisition on managerial decisions: Evidence from empirical experiment

In this research we conducted a mixed research, using qualitative and quantitative analysis to study the relationship and impact between mobile advertisement and mobile app user acquisition and the conclusions companies can derive from it. Data was gathered from management of mobile advertisement campaigns of a portfolio of three different mobile apps. We found that a number of implications can be extracted from this intersection, namely to product development, internationalisation and management of marketing budget. We propose further research on alternative app users sources, impact of revenue on apps and exploitation of product segments: wearable technology and Internet of Things.

Value creation in the nursing home real estate investment market - A case study

The underlying thesis examines the value drivers of direct investments in nursing home real estate in Germany. A survey among investors and operators is conducted in order to identify significant value drivers. Moreover, based on survey results, a framework for assessing German nursing home real estate is developed. This is applied in a case-study about the set-up of a nursing home value-add fund which will demonstrate the value creation process of redeveloping an existing nursing home real estate portfolio. Through a concluding analysis the sources of value creation, sensitivities and future prospects of direct investing into German nursing home real estate are concluded.

O abuso de informação privilegiada (insider trading)

In the stock market, information takes on special relevance, due to the market’s permanent updating and the great fluidity of information existent therein. Just as in any other negotiations, the party with the better information has a bargaining advantage, as it is able to make more advantageous business decisions. However, unlike most other markets, the proper functioning of the stock market is greatly dependent on investors’ trust in the market itself. As such, if there are investors who, due to any condition they possess or office they hold, have access to relevant information which is not accessible to the general public, distrust is bred within the market and, consequently, investment is lessened. Thus, there is a need to prevent those who hold privileged information from using it in abusive ways. In Portugal, abuse of privileged information is set out and punished criminally in Article 378. of the Portuguese Securities Code (‘Código dos Valores Mobiliários’). In this dissertation, I have set out, firstly, to analyze the inherent conditions for there to be a crime of abuse of privileged information; secondly, to analyze two well-known cases, which took place and were decided in other jurisdictions, and attempt to understand how these cases would fall under Article 378. of the Portuguese Securities Code. Whereas the first case, Chiarella v. United States, was scrutinize under Article 378 of the Portuguese Securities Code, in the second, Lafonta v. AMF, the conclusion arrived at was that the crime taken place was different. This analysis allowed, on one hand, the application to a particular case of prerequisites and concepts which were explained, at a first approach, from a more theoretical perspective; on the other hand, it also allowed the further development of specific aspects of the regime, namely the difference between an insider and a tipee, as well as to more clearly set out the limits to the precise character of the information at hand.

The effect of energy and traffic light labeling on parents purchasing decisions of cereals for their children

Objective: Nutritional labeling systems are considered a tool to fight obesity since they aim to contribute for more informed food choices as well as assist consumers to make healthier nutrition options and in this manner, contribute to a decrease in the obesity rate. This study intends to analyze the effect of different types of labeling systems on parents’ purchasing decisions for their children on a specific product: breakfast cereals. More precisely, how labels affect parents’ perception of healthiness regarding cereals and if the nutritional information has an effect on intended purchases for their children. Participants and methods: We conducted a study with 135 Portuguese parents of children aged 4 to12 years. Parents answered a questionnaire with one of three hypothetical cereals menus. Menus only differed in their nutritional labeling technique: no labels (control group), reference intake labels or traffic light labels. In addition, we conducted 20 face-to-face interviews to a different group of parents in order to perform a recall task. Findings: This paper provides no evidence to suggest that energy labeling or traffic light labeling systems alone were successful in helping parents making healthy purchases of cereals for their children. Therefore, there is the need to promote supplementary policies to encourage the consumption of healthier food and help fight obesity.

The role of guarantees in pension plan design: Pension saving decisions

This study centers on the assessment of psychological value of guarantees in pension products and the behavior biases associated with choice. When a guarantee on a product increases from 99% to 99,5% less than half of respondents show willingness to pay in contrast with 73% when going from 99,5% to 100%. Out of 105 respondents, 55 show that their choices concerning pension products are inconsistent with classic utility theory. Financial background proves insignificant thus pointing to behavioral biases. As individuals make choices that leave them worse-off, we argue that pension plan design would highly benefit from public policy interventions.