Rating corporate groups a modelling experience

This paper aims to provide a model that allows BPI to measure the credit risk, through its rating scale, of the subsidiaries included in the corporate groups who are their clients. This model should be simple enough to be applied in practice, accurate, and must give consistent results in comparison to what have been the ratings given by the bank. The model proposed includes operational, strategic, and financial factors and ends up giving one of three results: no support, partial support, or full support from the holding to the subsidiary, and each of them translates in adjustments in each subsidiary’s credit rating. As it would be expectable, most of the subsidiaries should have the same credit rating of its parent company.

Enhancement of an implemented rating model and impact on existing risk management processes: A hands-on approach from financial supplier risk management within the automotive industry

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a methodical drawback analysis of a financial supplier risk management approach which is currently implemented in the automotive industry. Based on identified methodical flaws, the risk assessment model is further developed by introducing a malus system which incorporates hidden risks into the model and by revising the derivation of the most central risk measure in the current model. Both methodical changes lead to significant enhancements in terms of risk assessment accuracy, supplier identification and workload efficiency.

Effect of European Sovereign debt crisis on banks’ stock market performances: application to Portuguese data

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Needs assessment of people with severe mental illnesses and their families in Azerbaijan

RESUMO: Os indivíduos com doença mental grave, assim como os seus familiares, podem ser caracterizados como uma população em que ocorre uma combinação complexa de necessidades médicas e psicossociais, nomeadamente a nível do diagnóstico e do acesso aos serviços de saúde mental. A avaliação de necessidades pode fornecer informações importantes para o desenvolvimento de intervenções eficazes, tanto a nível da população como a nível individual. Este estudo teve como objetivo determinar as diferentes necessidades reportadas pelos pacientes com doença mental grave e seus familiares , assim como investigar as possíveis relações entre o estado de necessidades e as variáveis sócio-demográficas e clínicas. Simultaneamente, o estudo teve como objetivo avaliar a sobrecarga familiar e a satisfação dos utentes com os serviços de saúde mental. Foi elaborado um estudo transversal, realizado numa amostra de conveniência de cinquenta díades de paciente/membro da família, seguidos em regime de ambulatório no Centro Nacional de Saúde Mental. Foram utilizados como instrumentos de avaliação um questionário sociodemográfico, a Escala Breve de Avaliação Psiquiátrica (BPRS), o questionário de Avaliação de Necessidades de Camberwell (CAN), o Questionário de Avaliação do Envolvimento (IEQ) e a Escala de Verona de Satisfação com os Serviços (VSSS). As mais frequentes necessidades não-satisfeitas foram o ‘sofrimento psicológico’, as ‘atividades sociais’ e os ‘benefícios sociais’. O estudo mostrou uma sobrecarga significativa nas famílias que cuidam de pessoas com doença mental grave, que se correlacionou com as suas opiniões sobre as necessidades dos pacientes e teve um impacto negativo sobre o bem-estar psicológico. Os três mais importantes predictores de sofrimento psíquico em familiares foram o sexo, a situação laboral e a relação com o paciente. A avaliação da satisfação com os serviços revelou a existência de um hiato significativo entre os serviços prestados e os serviços desejados, reportados pelos pacientes e seus familiares. A maioria dos participantes do estudo desejavam ter um trabalho protegido, ou receber ajuda para encontrar emprego. Os resultados deste estudo poderão ser usados para fins de planeamento desenvolvimento e avaliação de serviços de saúde mental no Azerbeijão. Algumas recomendações sobre a melhoria dos serviços de saúde mental para pacientes com doença mental grave e suas famílias são feitas na secção final do trabalho.----------ABSTRACT: Patients suffering from severe mental illness, in addition to their family members, may be characterized as a population with a complex combination of medical and psychosocial needs, which are under-recognized and under-addressed by mental health services. At the same time, needs assessment provides important information necessary for developing effective interventions at both population and individual level. The study was aimed to determine various needs perceived by patients with SMI and their family members, as well as to find out possible relations between the needs and socio-demographic and clinical variables. Similarly the study was intended to evaluate family burden and users’ satisfaction with services. This was a cross-sectional study conducted on a convenience sample. Fifty dyads of a patient and family member applying for out-patient services to the National Mental Health Centre participated in the study. Sociodemographic questionnaire, Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale, Camberwell Assessment of Need, Involvement Evaluation Questionnaire, and Verona Service Satisfaction Scale were used as assessment tools. The most prominent unmet needs reported by people with SMI and their relatives were psychological distress, social activities and welfare benefits. The study showed significant burden in families caring for people with SMI, which correlated with their views about patients’ needs and had a negative impact on the psychological well-being. The three most important predictors of psychological distress in family members were gender, employment status and relationship to patient. Evaluation of satisfaction with services pointed out the gap between provided and desired services reported by patients and their relatives. Most of study participants wished to have sheltered work, or receive help in finding employment. The results of this study may be used for the purposes of mental health service planning, development and evaluation in our country. Some recommendations on improvement of mental health services for patients with SMI and their families have been made in the conclusion.

Stops and bonanzas in the EU: Does being part of the Euro Area make a difference?

In this paper, we investigate whether being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza of capital flows. Our sample period is from 1995 until 2014. We identify these two phenomena and we evaluate which push and pull factors help predict the conditional probability of experiencing one of them. We find that most countries had significant capital inflows until 2008 and that there were more sudden stops during the recent financial crisis than in any other moment in our sample. The factors that better help forecast the conditional probability of a sudden stop are global uncertainty (represented by the push factor “Volatility Index”), and the domestic economic activity (pull factors “GDP growth” and “consumer confidence”). An indicator of country risk (pull factor “change in credit rating”) is the most significant one for predicting bonanzas. Ultimately, we find no evidence that being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza.

Comparative analysis of Spanish Banks’ Standalone credit profile

The paper studies the relationship between four differently rated bank’s financial profile and their standalone credit rating issued by Moody’s. The comparative analysis shows an example that despite their pricing power and geographical coverage, larger banks do not necessarily have better credit ratings. Instead, business model and risk appetite seem to be the defining factors of banks’ vulnerability to shocks, such as the Spanish real estate crisis. The risk-return relationship is also identified in the banks’ fundamentals meaning that while expansionary strategy in riskier asset classes enhances margins, it also potentially distorts the credit risk profile.