Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Validação e aplicação clínica de uma escala de cognição social na esquizofrenia = Validation and clinical use of a measure of social cognition in schizophrenia

RESUMO: A cognição social encontra-se frequentemente alterada na esquizofrenia. Esta alteração relaciona-se com a diminuição do funcionamento social,caracterizando-se quer por défices quer por vieses cognitivos sociais. No entanto, existem poucos instrumentos fiáveis e válidos para avaliar a cognição social na esquizofrenia, nomeadamente capazes de medir os vieses cognitivos sociais e a cognição social auto-relevante. Adicionalmente, as bases biológicas da disfunção social não estão totalmente esclarecidas. Evidências recentes sugerem que o peptídeo oxitocina (OXT) influencia o funcionamento social, e que esta relação poderá ser mediada pela cognição social. Este Trabalho de Projecto descreve a contribuição do autor para o desenvolvimento e avaliação psicométrica inicial de um novo instrumento de avaliação da cognição social, e a utilidade desta escala na investigação das associações entre a OXT e a capacidade e vieses cognitivos sociais. A Waiting Room Task (WRT), uma escala constituída por 26 vídeos sequenciais que simulam a experiência de observar outra pessoa numa sala de espera, foi administrada num estudo transversal com 61 doentes com esquizofrenia e 20 controlos saudáveis. Observou-se uma menor capacidade cognitiva social e um aumento dos vieses cognitivos sociais nos doentes com esquizofrenia, comparativamente aos controlos. Nos controlos e doentes com delírios, o desempenho na WRT correlacionou-se significativamente com os níveis de OXT. Esta correlação não se observou nos doentes sem delírios, sugerindo que o papel da OXT na cognição social poderá encontrar-se atenuado neste grupo. Estes achados fornecem suporte inicial para a adequação da WRT como instrumento de avaliação da cognição social na esquizofrenia, podendo ainda ser útil na investigação da sua base biológica. ------------ ABSTRACT: Social cognition is often impaired in schizophrenia. This impairment is related to poor social functioning and is characterized by both social cognitive deficits and biases. However, there are few reliable and valid measures of social cognition in schizophrenia, particularly measures of social cognitive bias and of self-relevant social cognition. Also, the biological bases of social dysfunction are not well understood. Emerging evidence suggests that the peptide oxytocin (OXT) influences social functioning, and that this relationship may be mediated by social cognition. This Research Project describes the author’s contribution to the development and initial psychometric testing of a new measure of social cognition, and the utility of this instrument to examine associations between OXT and social cognitive capacity and bias. The Waiting Room Task WRT), a video-based test comprising 26 sequential videos simulating the experience of facing another person in a waiting room, was administered in a cross-sectional study involving 61 patients with schizophrenia and 20 healthy controls. Social cognitive capacity was lower and social cognitive bias was increased in patients with schizophrenia compared with controls. Among controls and patients with delusions, performance on the WRT was significantly correlated with OXT level. This correlation was not found in patients without delusions suggesting that OXT’s role in social cognition may be blunted in this group. These findings provide initial support for the adequacy of the WRT as a measure for assessing social cognition in schizophrenia that may also be useful in understanding its biological underpinnings.

Exploring the experience of stigma in severe mental illness : a Portuguese contribution to the validation of a psychometric instrument

RESUMO: Fizemos uma análise da evolução do conceito de estigma, das suas correlações e das suas consequências e analisámos os instrumentos psicométricos utilizados para estudar experiências pessoais de estigma. Revimos os principais estudos de investigação sobre estigma em Portugal. Revimos, igualmente, os estudos relevantes utilizando o “Consumer Experiences of Stigma Questionnaire” (CESQ) e as propriedades psicométricas já documentadas. O nosso estudo teve como objetivos: explorar as experiências de estigma numa amostra portuguesa de pessoas com perturbação mental grave e contribuir para a documentação das propriedades psicométricas do “Consumer Experiences of Stigma Questionnaire” e para a validação da sua versão portuguesa. Fizemos um estudo transversal, descritivo e analítico, recolhemos dados sociodemográficos e clínicos e medimos as experiências de estigma e o funcionamento global. A frequência das respostas da secção de estigma foi semelhante à dos restantes estudos utilizando a CESQ. A frequência das respostas na secção de discriminação foi ligeiramente inferior à reportada noutros estudos. Verificámos a existência de uma associação entre a pontuação da subescala de discriminação, o sexo masculino e o facto de se viver na comunidade. A pontuação da subescala de discriminação está também correlacionada de forma positiva com o funcionamento global. Os alfas de Cronbach para a CESQ e para as suas subescalas foram considerados bons. Os coeficientes de correlação intraclasse foram igualmente considerados igualmente bons. Utilizando técnicas de análise fatorial, verificámos que a maior parte dos itens da CESQ se enquadrava em dois fatores, correspondendo sensivelmente às subescalas definidas previamente. Concluímos que o presente estudo explorou com sucesso a questão do estigma em Portugal, contribuindo em simultâneo para a validação do “Consumer Experiences of Stigma Questionnaire.--------------ABSTRACT: We reviewed the evolution of concept of stigma, its correlates and consequences, and analysed psychometric instruments that were used to study personal experiences of stigma. We provided an insight over research of stigma in Portugal. We reviewed relevant studies that use Consumer Experiences of Stigma Questionnaire and documented psychometric properties of this instrument. Our study aimed both to explore experiences of stigma in a Portuguese sample of people with severe mental illness and to contribute to the assessment of the psychometric properties of Consumer Experiences of Stigma Questionnaire and to the validation of its Portuguese translation. We performed a cross sectional descriptive and analytic study, collected socio-demographic data and measured experiences of stigma and global functioning. Frequency of responses regarding stigma section of CESQ matched previous studies using that scale. Frequency of responses in discrimination section was slightly lower than previously reported studies. We found an association between the discrimination score of CESQ and both male gender and living in the community. The discrimination score also positively correlated with global functioning. Cronbach alphas for CESQ and its subscales were good. Intraclass correlation coefficients for CESQ and stigma subscale were also good. Using factor analysis we found most of the items in CESQ would fit 2 factors, grossly corresponding to the previously defined subscales. We conclude that this study successfully explored stigma in Portugal, contributing in simultaneous to the validation of Consumer Experiences Questionnaire.

Fx swaps and outright forward validation

UNL - NSBE

Code name

The present case-study concerns about the analysis of the sale of Banif Mais, the sub-holding of Banif Group for specialized credit activity, taking into account the bank’s financial situation in 2014. In 2011, Portugal was submitted to an external finance programme carried out by troika which imposed very restricted measures to the financial sector. Subsequently, Banif was not able to accomplish the required results having to appeal to Government financing, being under a recapitalization plan since 2012.