Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.

Derivation and consistency checking of models in early software product line engineering

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Informática

Three essays in risky behaviors

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Testing for volatility persistence change: The effect of the credit crisis on the Portuguese banks

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Caraterização da tomada de decisão em organizações hospitalares : impacto do estatuto jurídico

RESUMO - O decisor hospitalar tem como função decidir os recursos de uma organização de saúde, sejam estes financeiros, materiais ou humanos, sendo decisivo o conhecimento e informação que o apoiem na aplicabilidade nas tomadas de decisão e na solução dos problemas. As tomadas de decisão suportam-se em modelos reproduzidos pelos decisores, em processos, modelos, e em princípios, que podem ou não assumir intuição, objetividade, racionalidade e ética, bem como de técnicas várias que podem ser limitativas ou condicionadas, por força de fatores vários, como: a falta de informação inerente de uma multidisciplinaridade do processo; de condicionalismos organizacionais, internos ou externos, associados à envolvente e cultura organizacional e influências políticas e macroeconómicas; ao fator tempo; a tecnologia; a estrutura e desenho organizacional; a autoridade/poder e a autonomia para decidir; a liderança, e do estatuto jurídico que o hospital possui. Este último ponto será esmiuçado, mais profundamente, neste estudo. Iremos, através do estudo, compreender se os elementos componentes das decisões tomadas nos hospitais, são ou não adaptadas em consonância com diferentes políticas de governação hospitalar, em contextos e dinâmicas organizacionais diferenciadas, por diferentes Estatutos Jurídicos Hospitalares - EPE, SPA, PPP e Privados. Foi realizado um estudo de caráter exploratório, descritivo-correlacional e transversal, baseou-se num questionário aplicado a decisores hospitalares, incidindo nos dois vetores centrais do estudo, na tomada de decisão e no estatuto jurídico hospitalar. A decisão é então, um valiosíssimo veículo na persecução das estratégias e planos formulados pelo hospital, esperando-se destes produzir consequentes resultados eficientes, eficazes e efetivos na sua aplicação.

Cellular reprogramming strategies for degenerative disorders involving the retinal pigment epithelium

RESUMO: A reprogramação celular permite que uma célula somática seja reprogramada para outra célula diferente através da expressão forçada de factores de transcrição (FTs) específicos de determinada linhagem celular, e constitui uma área de investigação emergente nos últimos anos. As células somáticas podem ser experimentalmente manipuladas de modo a obter células estaminais pluripotentes induzidas (CEPi), ou convertidas directamente noutro tipo de célula somática. Estas descobertas inovadoras oferecem oportunidades promissoras para o desenvolvimento de novas terapias de substituição celular e modelos de doença, funcionando também como ferramentas valiosas para o estudo dos mecanismos moleculares que estabelecem a identidade celular e regulam os processos de desenvolvimento. Existem várias doenças degenerativas hereditárias e adquiridas da retina que causam deficiência visual devido a uma disfunção no tecido de suporte da retina, o epitélio pigmentar da retina (EPR). Uma destas doenças é a Coroideremia (CHM), uma doença hereditária monogénica ligada ao cromossoma X causada por mutações que implicam a perda de função duma proteína com funções importantes na regulação do tráfico intracelular. A CHM é caracterizada pela degenerescência progressiva do EPR, assim como dos foto-receptores e da coróide. Resultados experimentais sugerem que o EPR desempenha um papel importante na patogénese da CHM, o que parece indicar uma possível vantagem terapêutica na substituição do EPR nos doentes com CHM. Por outro lado, existe uma lacuna em termos de modelos in vitro de EPR para estudar a CHM, o que pode explicar o ainda desconhecimento dos mecanismos moleculares que explicam a patogénese desta doença. Assim, este trabalho focou-se principalmente na exploração das potencialidades das técnicas de reprogramação celular no contexto das doenças de degenerescência da retina, em particular no caso da CHM. Células de murganho de estirpe selvagem, bem como células derivadas de um ratinho modelo de knockout condicional de Chm, foram convertidos com sucesso em CEPi recorrendo a um sistema lentiviral induzido que permite a expressão forçada dos 4 factores clássicos de reprogramação, a saber Oct4, Sox2, Klf4 e c-Myc. Estas células mostraram ter equivalência morfológica, molecular e funcional a células estaminais embrionárias (CES). As CEPi obtidas foram seguidamente submetidas a protocolos de diferenciação com o objectivo final de obter células do EPR. Os resultados promissores obtidos revelam a possibilidade de gerar um valioso modelo de EPR-CHM para estudos in vitro. Em alternativa, a conversão directa de linhagens partindo de fibroblastos para obter células do EPR foi também abordada. Uma vasta gama de ferramentas moleculares foi gerada de modo a implementar uma estratégia mediada por FTs-chave, seleccionados devido ao seu papel fundamental no desenvolvimento embrionário e especificação do EPR. Conjuntos de 10 ou menos FTs foram usados para transduzir fibroblastos, que adquiriram morfologia pigmentada e expressão de alguns marcadores específicos do EPR. Adicionalmente, observou-se a activação de regiões promotoras de genes específicos de EPR, indicando que a identidade transcricional das células foi alterada no sentido pretendido. Em conclusão, avanços significativos foram atingidos no sentido da implementação de tecnologias de reprogramação celular já estabelecidas, bem como na concepção de novas estratégias inovadoras. Metodologias de reprogramação, quer para pluripotência, quer via conversão directa, foram aplicadas com o objectivo final de gerar células do EPR. O trabalho aqui descrito abre novos caminhos para o estabelecimento de terapias de substituição celular e, de uma maneira mais directa, levanta a possibilidade de modelar doenças degenerativas da retina com disfunção do EPR numa placa de petri, em particular no caso da CHM.---------------ABSTRACT: Cellular reprogramming is an emerging research field in which a somatic cell is reprogrammed into a different cell type by forcing the expression of lineage-specific transcription factors (TFs). Cellular identities can be manipulated using experimental techniques with the attainment of pluripotency properties and the generation of induced Pluripotent Stem (iPS) cells, or the direct conversion of one somatic cell into another somatic cell type. These pioneering discoveries offer new unprecedented opportunities for the establishment of novel cell-based therapies and disease models, as well as serving as valuable tools for the study of molecular mechanisms governing cell fate establishment and developmental processes. Several retinal degenerative disorders, inherited and acquired, lead to visual impairment due to an underlying dysfunction of the support cells of the retina, the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE). Choroideremia (CHM), an X-linked monogenic disease caused by a loss of function mutation in a key regulator of intracellular trafficking, is characterized by a progressive degeneration of the RPE and other components of the retina, such as the photoreceptors and the choroid. Evidence suggest that RPE plays an important role in CHM pathogenesis, thus implying that regenerative approaches aiming at rescuing RPE function may be of great benefit for CHM patients. Additionally, lack of appropriate in vitro models has contributed to the still poorly-characterized molecular events in the base of CHM degenerative process. Therefore, the main focus of this work was to explore the potential applications of cellular reprogramming technology in the context of RPE-related retinal degenerations. The generation of mouse iPS cells was established and optimized using an inducible lentiviral system to force the expression of the classic set of TFs, namely Oct4, Sox2, Klf4 and c-Myc. Wild-type cells, as well as cells derived from a conditional knockout (KO) mouse model of Chm, were successfully converted into a pluripotent state, that displayed morphology, molecular and functional equivalence to Embryonic Stem (ES) cells. Generated iPS cells were then subjected to differentiation protocols towards the attainment of a RPE cell fate, with promising results highlighting the possibility of generating a valuable Chm-RPE in vitro model. In alternative, direct lineage conversion of fibroblasts into RPE-like cells was also tackled. A TF-mediated approach was implemented after the generation of a panoply of molecular tools needed for such studies. After transduction with pools of 10 or less TFs, selected for their key role on RPE developmental process and specification, fibroblasts acquired a pigmented morphology and expression of some RPE-specific markers. Additionally, promoter regions of RPE-specific genes were activated indicating that the transcriptional identity of the cells was being altered into the pursued cell fate. In conclusion, highly significant progress was made towards the implementation of already established cellular reprogramming technologies, as well as the designing of new innovative ones. Reprogramming into pluripotency and lineage conversion methodologies were applied to ultimately generate RPE cells. These studies open new avenues for the establishment of cell replacement therapies and, more straightforwardly,raise the possibility of modelling retinal degenerations with underlying RPE defects in apetri dish, particularly CHM.

Compensating variation and the young Portuguese emigrants: A study on how to keep our own

Emigration has been a very present word in Portugal. Due to the effects of the Economic Crisis and the Memorandum of Understanding policies, we have witnessed a significant yearly migration outflow of people searching for better conditions. This study aims to measure the factors affecting this flow as well as how much the probability of emigrating has evolved during the years bridging 2006 to 2012. I shall consider the decision of emigrating as Discrete Choice Random Utility maximization use a conditional Logit framework to model the probability choice for 31 OECD countries of destination. Moreover I will ascertain the compensating variation required such that the probability of choice in 2012 is adjusted back to 2007 values, keeping all other variables constant. I replicate this exercise using the unemployment rate instead of income. The most likely country of destination is Luxembourg throughout the years analyzed and the values obtained for the CV is of circa 1.700€ in terms of Income per capita and -11% in terms of the unemployment rate adjustment.

What hides behind the fixed-term contracts wage gap?

In Portugal, about 20% of full-time workers are employed under a fixed-term contract. Using a rich longitudinal matched employer-employee dataset for Portugal, with more than 20 million observations and covering the 2002-2012 period, we confirm the common idea that fixed-term contracts are not desirable when compared to permanent ones, by estimating a conditional wage gap of -1.7 log points. Then, we evaluate the sources of that wage penalty by combining a three way high-dimensional fixed effects model with the decomposition of Gelbach (2014), in which the three dimensions considered are the worker’s unobserved ability, the firm’s compensation wage policy and the job title effect. It is shown that the average worker with a fixed-term contract is less productive than his/her permanent counterparts, explaining -3.92 log points of the FTC wage penalty. Additionally, the sorting of workers into lower-paid job titles is also responsible for -0.59 log points of the wage gap. Surprisingly, we found that the allocation of workers among firms mitigates the existing wage penalty (in 4.23 log points), as fixed-term workers are concentrated into firms with a more generous compensation policy. Finally, following Figueiredo et al. (2014), we further control for the worker-firm match characteristics and reach the conclusion that fixed-term employment relationships have an overrepresentation of low quality worker-firm matches, explaining 0.65 log points of the FTC wage penalty.

Modeling and forecasting value-at-risk for the Portuguese stock market

The aim of this work project is to find a model that is able to accurately forecast the daily Value-at-Risk for PSI-20 Index, independently of the market conditions, in order to expand empirical literature for the Portuguese stock market. Hence, two subsamples, representing more and less volatile periods, were modeled through unconditional and conditional volatility models (because it is what drives returns). All models were evaluated through Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s tests, by comparing forecasts with actual results. Using an out-of-sample of 204 observations, it was found that a GARCH(1,1) is an accurate model for our purposes.

Banking crises: The impact of financial liberalization

This paper intends to study whether financial liberalization tends to increase the likelihood of systemic banking crises. I used a sample of 79 countries with data spanning from 1973 to 2005 to run a panel probit model. I found that, if anything, financial liberalization as measured across seven different dimensions tends to decrease the probability of occurrence of a systemic banking crisis. I went further and did several robustness tests – used a conditional probit model, tested for different durations of liberalization impact and reduced the sample by considering only the first crisis event for each country. Main results still verified, proving the results’ robustness.

Stops and bonanzas in the EU: Does being part of the Euro Area make a difference?

In this paper, we investigate whether being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza of capital flows. Our sample period is from 1995 until 2014. We identify these two phenomena and we evaluate which push and pull factors help predict the conditional probability of experiencing one of them. We find that most countries had significant capital inflows until 2008 and that there were more sudden stops during the recent financial crisis than in any other moment in our sample. The factors that better help forecast the conditional probability of a sudden stop are global uncertainty (represented by the push factor “Volatility Index”), and the domestic economic activity (pull factors “GDP growth” and “consumer confidence”). An indicator of country risk (pull factor “change in credit rating”) is the most significant one for predicting bonanzas. Ultimately, we find no evidence that being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza.