Luta Armada em Portugal (1970-1974)

A problemática do recurso à luta armada para derrubar a ditadura em Portugal gerou discussões, debates e rupturas no seio da oposição portuguesa muito antes de terem surgido as primeiras organizações que realizaram acções armadas. Foi no rescaldo da campanha para as eleições presidenciais de 1958, perante o apoio popular à campanha de Humberto Delgado, candidato da oposição, e a constatação da dimensão da fraude eleitoral, que ocorreram as primeiras discussões acerca da inevitabilidade recorrer à violência armada para derrubar a ditadura. Porém, apenas na década de 70 as circunstâncias políticas, económicas e sociais no país favorecem o aparecimento de outras organizações armadas. Os quase dez anos de guerra colonial tinham desgastado o regime e as manifestações contra a guerra eram cada vez maiores, com o numero de desertores e refractários a crescer de ano para ano. Ao mesmo tempo, o pais ia-se industrializando e terciarizando; assistia-se ao crescimento da classe média, da escolarização, da emigração e a uma mudança de mentalidade, trazida pelo acesso cada vez maior ao que se passava no mundo. Seria neste contexto que as formas tradicionais de oposição, baseadas em manifestações pacíficas e abaixo-assinados, são sentidas como ultrapassadas e ineficazes e começam a proliferar as organizações marxistas-leninistas que teorizavam sobre a luta armada e concebiam planos de acções armadas contra o regime, aumentando o número daqueles que defendiam que o regime só cairia com o recurso à violência. Em 1967, a LUAR, levava a cabo a primeira acção armada contra o regime, o assalto à agência do Banco de Portugal na Figueira da Foz, para obter dinheiro que seria utilizado no financiamento de futuras acções armadas. Em 1970, o Partido Comunista Português, depois de um prolongadíssimo período de maturação, avançava com a ARA que levou a cabo a primeira acção em Outubro desse ano, a sabotagem ao navio Cunene que participa da logística de apoio à guerra colonial. Em 1971, foram as Brigadas Revolucionárias que desencadearam a primeira acção, um atentado bombista contra o Quartel da Nato na Fonte da Telha. Até ao 25 de Abril de 1974, várias acções armadas seriam cometidas por estas organizações, com a particularidade de apenas atingirem o aparelho repressivo e militar do regime, e de seguirem o princípio irredutível de não fazer vítimas mortais entre os civis. O 25 de Abril de 1974, corresponderia ao epílogo de um processo de contestação armada ao Estado Novo que foi acelerando nos seus derradeiros anos.

Health expenditures in the OECD: A political economy analysis using structural breaks

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Res Publica: Citizenship and Political Representation in Portugal, 1820-1926

The term res publica (literally “thing of the people”) was coined by the Romans to translate the Greek word politeia, which, as we know, referred to a political community organised in accordance with certain principles, amongst which the notion of the “good life” (as against exclusively private interests) was paramount. This ideal also came to be known as political virtue. To achieve it, it was necessary to combine the best of each “constitutional” type and avoid their worst aspects (tyranny, oligarchy and ochlocracy). Hence, the term acquired from the Greeks a sense of being a “mixed” and “balanced” system. Anyone that was entitled to citizenship could participate in the governance of the “public thing”. This implied the institutionalization of open debate and confrontation between interested parties as a way of achieving the consensus necessary to ensure that man the political animal, who fought with words and reason, prevailed over his “natural” counterpart. These premises lie at the heart of the project which is now being presented under the title of Res Publica: Citizenship and Political Representation in Portugal, 1820-1926. The fact that it is integrated into the centenary commemorations of the establishment of the Republic in Portugal is significant, as it was the idea of revolution – with its promise of rupture and change – that inspired it. However, it has also sought to explore events that could be considered the precursor of democratization in the history of Portugal, namely the vintista, setembrista and patuleia revolutions. It is true that the republican regime was opposed to the monarchic. However, although the thesis that monarchy would inevitably lead to tyranny had held sway for centuries, it had also been long believed that the monarchic system could be as “politically virtuous” as a republic (in the strict sense of the word) provided that power was not concentrated in the hands of a single individual. Moreover, various historical experiments had shown that republics could also degenerate into Caesarism and different kinds of despotism. Thus, when absolutism began to be overturned in continental Europe in the name of the natural rights of man and the new social pact theories, initiating the difficult process of (written) constitutionalization, the monarchic principle began to be qualified as a “monarchy hedged by republican institutions”, a situation in which not even the king was exempt from isonomy. This context justifies the time frame chosen here, as it captures the various changes and continuities that run through it. Having rejected the imperative mandate and the reinstatement of the model of corporative representation (which did not mean that, in new contexts, this might not be revived, or that the second chamber established by the Constitutional Charter of 1826 might not be given another lease of life), a new power base was convened: national sovereignty, a precept that would be shared by the monarchic constitutions of 1822 and 1838, and by the republican one of 1911. This followed the French example (manifested in the monarchic constitution of 1791 and in the Spanish constitution of 1812), as not even republicans entertained a tradition of republicanism based upon popular sovereignty. This enables us to better understand the rejection of direct democracy and universal suffrage, and also the long incapacitation (concerning voting and standing for office) of the vast body of “passive” citizens, justified by “enlightened”, property- and gender-based criteria. Although the republicans had promised in the propaganda phase to alter this situation, they ultimately failed to do so. Indeed, throughout the whole period under analysis, the realisation of the potential of national sovereignty was mediated above all by the individual citizen through his choice of representatives. However, this representation was indirect and took place at national level, in the hope that action would be motivated not by particular local interests but by the common good, as dictated by reason. This was considered the only way for the law to be virtuous, a requirement that was also manifested in the separation and balance of powers. As sovereignty was postulated as single and indivisible, so would be the nation that gave it soul and the State that embodied it. Although these characteristics were common to foreign paradigms of reference, in Portugal, the constitutionalization process also sought to nationalise the idea of Empire. Indeed, this had been the overriding purpose of the 1822 Constitution, and it persisted, even after the loss of Brazil, until decolonization. Then, the dream of a single nation stretching from the Minho to Timor finally came to an end.

Politicization of non-political events

Spatial analysis and social network analysis typically take into consideration social processes in specific contexts of geographical or network space. The research in political science increasingly strives to model heterogeneity and spatial dependence. To better understand and geographically model the relationship between “non-political” events, streaming data from social networks, and political climate was the primary objective of the current study. Geographic information systems (GIS) are useful tools in the organization and analysis of streaming data from social networks. In this study, geographical and statistical analysis were combined in order to define the temporal and spatial nature of the data eminating from the popular social network Twitter during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The study spans the entire globe because Twitter’s geotagging function, the fundamental data that makes this study possible, is not limited to a geographic area. By examining the public reactions to an inherenlty non-political event, this study serves to illuminate broader questions about social behavior and spatial dependence. From a practical perspective, the analyses demonstrate how the discussion of political topics fluсtuate according to football matches. Tableau and Rapidminer, in addition to a set basic statistical methods, were applied to find patterns in the social behavior in space and time in different geographic regions. It was found some insight into the relationship between an ostensibly non-political event – the World Cup - and public opinion transmitted by social media. The methodology could serve as a prototype for future studies and guide policy makers in governmental and non-governmental organizations in gauging the public opinion in certain geographic locations.

Correlates of intergenerational mobility and political violence

This work project aims at exploring the role of intergenerational immobility in political violence. A cross-country macro-level analysis is done where no significant results are found. Additionally, an individual micro-level analysis is done where intergenerational mobility (measured through a proxy variable) has a negative significant effect in political violence

US fiscal dynamics in political perspective

Given the importance of fiscal balance for ensuring a sustainable fiscal policy, we conduct an empirical examination of fiscal dynamics in the United States in response to unsustainable budget deviations. We concentrate on the role of political factors, namely the Republican - Democrat presidential divide, in determining the fiscal response to budget disequilibria. Making use of an asymmetric cointegration framework, we explore politically motivated fiscal asymmetries in the US, from Eisenhower to Obama. We conclude that political factors such as the government’s political quadrant and the timing of elections are important determinants of the fiscal response to unsustainable budget deviations.

Work ethic and the legacies of political regimes

This article studies the cross-country differences in work ethic and claims that different political regimes transmitted different work ethics that still persist today. Using the World Values Survey and starting our political regime analysis in 1900, we find that Democratic regimes promote more effectively work relevance and competitiveness than Autocratic and Anocratic regimes, and that the political regime history of the country is more important than the present level of democracy. Moreover, we prove that this differences were transmitted through generations by parents, who optimally choose what work ethic to transmit taking into account their own values.

Do Comandante Supremo das Forças Armadas

The President of the Portuguese Republic’s relation with the Armed Forces in the current political system is not confined to the vast legislative and constitutional set. As Chief of State and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, the President holds different powers. We develop an approach through the main concepts and themes that regulate the Armed Forces and National Defense, focusing the relations that involve the President directly. The attribution by inherence of the Supreme Command of the Armed Forces to the Chief of State, imposes a peculiar relation with the remainder sovereign institutions. The need to analyze the intermediate services as far as military and defense issues are concerned becomes necessary, in particular the role of the Military Cabinet – as a structure of direct support – and the High Council of National Defense – as an advisory body.