Predicting GDP growth in the Euro Area

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Stops and bonanzas in the EU: Does being part of the Euro Area make a difference?

In this paper, we investigate whether being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza of capital flows. Our sample period is from 1995 until 2014. We identify these two phenomena and we evaluate which push and pull factors help predict the conditional probability of experiencing one of them. We find that most countries had significant capital inflows until 2008 and that there were more sudden stops during the recent financial crisis than in any other moment in our sample. The factors that better help forecast the conditional probability of a sudden stop are global uncertainty (represented by the push factor “Volatility Index”), and the domestic economic activity (pull factors “GDP growth” and “consumer confidence”). An indicator of country risk (pull factor “change in credit rating”) is the most significant one for predicting bonanzas. Ultimately, we find no evidence that being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza.

Optimization of export support systems: How to promote exports from Portugal to Germany in the area of information technology and electronics

This work project focuses on developing new approaches which enhance Portuguese exports towards a defined German industry sector within the information technology and electronics fields. Firstly and foremost, information was collected and a set of expert and top managers’ interviews were performed in order to acknowledge the demand of the German market while identifying compatible Portuguese supply capabilities. Among the main findings, Industry 4.0 presents itself as a valuable opportunity in the German market for Portuguese medium sized companies in the embedded systems area of expertise for machinery and equipment companies. In order to achieve the purpose of the work project, an embedded systems platform targeting machinery and equipment companies was suggested as well as it was developed several recommendations on how to implement it. An alternative approach for this platform was also considered within the German market namely the eHealth sector having the purpose of enhancing the current healthcare service provision.

Deflation and monetary policy: A look into Japan and the Euro Area

With more than two decades of weak economic performance since the bubble burst in the ‘90s, the Japanese deflationary scenario has become the economic fate every developed economy fears to become. As the euro area continues to experience sustained low inflation, studying the Japanese monetary policy may shed light on how to prevent persistent deflation. Using an SVAR methodology to understand the monetary transmission mechanism, we find some evidence that the euro area may possess characteristics that would eventually lead to a deflationary scenario. The extent of whether it would suffer the same Japanese fate would depend on how macroeconomic policies are timely coordinated as a response to its liquidity problem and increasing public debt across member states.