Social impact bond feasibility study

Youth unemployment is one of the most pressing social issues in Portugal, often associated to a lack of skills. Faz-Te Forward (FFWD), a Portuguese employability programme, has demonstrated great potential for impact in solving this issue, especially amongst a neglected segment of the population – those belonging to “sandwich families”. The present thesis, integrated in the SIB Research Programme from the Social Investment Lab, evaluates the feasibility of this programme to be financed through a Social Impact Bond, an innovative outcomes-based financing model. From a data analysis undertaken to FFWD’s historical information, a business case for a SIB was developed.

Social impact bond feasibility study: Children and youth at risk: the Projecto Família program

Social impact bonds are an increasingly popular method of unlocking typical social investment barriers and fuelling social innovation. This feasibility study aims to understand whether a social impact bond is a suitable tool for decreasing unnecessary foster care placements in Portugal, which have been proven to cause significant social and financial damage to societies. This research question is answered through a financial model which combines the costs of this social problem with Projecto Família’s intervention model, a leading intensive family preservation service. Main findings suggest using SIB funding for a 5-year project with the goal of generating the proper impact measurement metrics lacking in the field.

Social impact bond feasibility study AEIPS intervention

AEIPS is a Portuguese social organization promoting the integration of people with mental health illnesses and/or substance abuse in the community through the intervention model Housing First. The philosophy of Housing First aims at lifting people out of their homelessness status by providing instant access to individualized and permanent housing as well as support services. Housing First projects from all over the world have proved very positive results in terms of residential stability and community integration of its participants. This feasibility study evaluates the suitability of using a Social Impact Bond to fund the Housing First intervention of AEIPS in Portugal.

The Course of Conflict. A Study in the Thought of Paul Ricoeur

Esta tese leva a cabo uma clarificação conceptual e uma reconstrução histórica da noção de conflito, tal como ela aparece na filosofia. Num primeiro momento, analisa-se o fenómeno do conflito na fonte Grega (em Homero, Heraclito, Platão, nas tragédias gregas e nas formas de interação agonística no espaço público) e na filosofia moderna (principalmente em Kant, Hegel e Marx). Num segundo momento, estabelece-se, nos seus traços gerais, uma cartografia da recuperação desta noção na contemporaneidade através da discussão das contribuições provenientes da teoria crítica (Habermas, Honneth, Hunyadi), da sociologia pragmática (Boltanski, Thévenot) e da filosofia política anglo-saxónica (Rawls, Walzer, Taylor), entre outras. Estas partes iniciais da tese desembocam numa análise aprofundada da obra do filósofo francês Paul Ricoeur e das muitas instanciações do conflito nessa obra, naquilo a que chamo o “percurso do conflito” no pensamento de Ricoeur. Neste “percurso do conflito” o objetivo é duplo: por um lado, provar que o conflito é a pedra de toque não só da filosofia de Ricoeur, mas também de um grande conjunto de outros autores; por outro lado, que é necessário reavaliar o papel desta noção no debate contemporâneo e que nesse contexto a filosofia de Ricoeur e as suas análises finas e plurais podem ser de uma grande utilidade. Assim sendo, este “percurso do conflito” divide-se em três partes, as quais lidam com diferentes tipos de conflito: conflitos “existenciais”, “hermenêuticos” e “práticos”. Ao longo destas partes, várias disciplinas são chamadas à colação, como a hermenêutica, a psicanálise e a filosofia prática (ética, filosofia política e filosofia social), numa tentativa de esclarecer os diferentes fenómenos em causa. Em última instância, chega-se à conclusão que o conflito é inevitável em filosofia, tal como na vida, mas que este não é (pelo menos não em todas as suas formas e instanciações) um fenómeno estritamente negativo; por vezes, os conflitos podem ser criativos e positivos. Porém, aceitar este facto implica igualmente consentir que o reconhecimento dos conflitos está intrinsecamente ligado à busca de soluções para eles, formas de lidar com eles e torná-los criativos e positivos. Para que possa ser compreendido, em traços gerais, como é que estes procedimentos funcionam, esta tese elabora uma tipologia de diferentes tipos de conflito e respetivas formas de lidar com eles, mediando-os, conciliando-os ou, nalguns casos, apenas aceitando a sua existência e mesmo multiplicando-os. A busca da melhor solução tem sempre de ser operada caso a caso. Nas partes finais da tese, e partindo das análises de Ricoeur e dos outro autores apresentadas ao longo da mesma, delineia-se o projeto de uma filosofia social hermenêutica e argumenta-se que aquilo de que precisamos hoje em dia é de uma nova crítica da razão, uma “crítica da razão miserável” que possa repensar o mundo social em novos termos e que, ao fazê-lo, possa evitar os perigos do reducionismo nas suas múltiplas formas.

The accuracy of the escrowed dividend model on the value of European options on a stock paying discrete dividend

This project characterizes the accuracy of the escrowed dividend model on the value of European options on a stock paying discrete dividend. A description of the escrowed dividend model is provided, and a comparison between this model and the benchmark model is realized. It is concluded that options on stocks with either low volatility, low dividend yield, low ex-dividend to maturity ratio or that are deep in or out of the money are reasonably priced with the escrowed dividend model.

Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.

Shared lives social impact bond feasibility study

Loneliness and isolation among the elderly is an enormous problem in Portugal. Interventions to tackle loneliness worldwide have had limited success, and new approaches are needed. Shared Lives is an adult foster placement service in the UK that shows significant promise in tackling both loneliness, isolation and other societal challenges linked with ageing. This feasibility study suggests that replicating a Shared Lives service in Portugal, using a Social Impact Bond (SIB), is viable and likely to create both social and financial value for all stakeholders involved. This study provides recommendations for how a Shared Lives SIB could be designed and implemented.