Evaluation of the welfare impact of regulating mobile termination rates in Portugal

Following the European Commission’s 2009 Recommendation on the Regulatory Treatment of Fixed and Mobile Termination Rates in the EU, the Portuguese regulatory authority (ANACOM) decided to reduce termination prices in mobile networks to their long-run incremental cost (LRIC). Nevertheless, no serious quantitative assessment of the potential effects of this decision was carried out. In this paper, we adapt and calibrate the Harbord and Hoernig (2014) model of the UK mobile telephony market to the Portuguese reality, and simulate the likely impact on consumer surplus, profits and welfare of four different regulatory approaches: pure LRIC, reciprocal termination charges with fixed networks, “bill & keep”, and asymmetric termination rates. Our results show that reducing MTRs does increase social welfare, profits and consumer surplus in the fixed market, but mobile subscribers are seriously harmed by this decision.

Buy, sell and chatter: A case analysis of a Lisbon flea market

This thesis aims explore the sociocultural as well as economic significance of the modern-day flea market, as a form of alternative marketplace system. More specifically, the main goal of the research is to determine the motivation for participation in flea markets of different participants, from vendors to consumers, using an interactionist perspective. By studying these groups in details, I seek to explore the embeddedness of social aspects in economic activity and vice versa. The basic assumption is to put aside the previous notions of the flea market as a second-order system with implied inferiority, and to explore the potential of the flea market to both challenge and complement more formal marketplace systems, by comparing and contrasting the flea market with market venues that belong to the formal sector. Feira da Ladra in Lisbon, Portugal, the oldest a hugely successful flea market in Europe, was chosen to be the research site, where its economic participants were studied in details in various exchanges, using naturalistic observations, semi-structured interviews and a sociocultural perspective.

How to monitor and improve Unilever JM Supply Chain processes to become the best of Portugal’s sector in 2015?

Unilever Jerónimo Martins is a Portuguese joint-venture leading firm in what concerns the supply chain industry of fast-moving consumer goods in Portugal. The scope of analysis of this Work Project is focusing on Unilever-JM operations and services in the Portuguese market regarding quality, efficiency and effectiveness over B2B customers. It will be analysed the possibility of development and implementation of a performance measurement system, Tableau de Bord, which will be crucial for the identification of potential opportunities of improvement with impact in the supply chain processes. This will be completed through the establishment of KPI’s to monitor and manage periodically logistics, planning and customer service processes’ performance, which are the ones where the bottlenecks are impacting more in the supply chain. In this work project the nexus causality for the problems will also be discussed and some recommendations will be prepared to tackle the inefficiencies found through the monitoring of the previous core processes, in order to improve efficacy and quality service of the supply chain.

Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

As práticas comerciais desleais

The following study aims to examine a controversial and relatively unexplored subject within our system: the legal framework on unfair business-to-consumer commercial practices. Given the fact that this subject is based on the Directive 2005/29/EC, we considered to be appropriate to explore, firstly, the background and origin of such normative instrument. Nevertheless, we have centered our analysis on the interpretation of the set rules established by the Portuguese legal system (Law nr 57/2008, March 26th). For this dissertation, we have proposed a model of tripartite approach. Chapter V seeks to shed light on the general clause by analyzing a set of open concepts such as professional diligence, honest market practice, good faith or material distortion of the consumer’s economic behavior. In chapter VI, we will focus on two common types of unfair commercial practices: misleading and aggressive practices. Finally, due to the fact that chapter VII deals with the black list, we have illustrated the listed practices by giving real life examples. Taking into account the indefinite concepts used in the general prohibition and in the misleading and aggressive clauses, it is particularly difficult to demonstrate the unfairness of the professional’s behavior. In the light of this information, we have concluded that the regime fails on achieving its main goal: it does not protect proper and effectively the consumer’s interests.

Empirically testing the dimensions of consumer trust in e-commerce

In the fields of marketing and general management, many are the contributions of literature relating trust and e‐commerce. Trust is perceived as an issue that concerns the consumers’ intention to purchase. As so, in this research, a path model is empirically tested in order to develop solutions for Internet vendors on how to deal with consumers and increase their trust. The path model measures how the dimensions of trust, named as competence, integrity and benevolence positively influence the overall trust of the consumers and at the same time how the sources of trust – consumer characteristics, firm characteristics, website infrastructure and interactions influence those dimensions. The data used to test the model was collected in Portugal, through 365 valid cases. Findings revealed that consumers, which have high level of overall trust, are more likely to intent to purchase online.

Market risk charge of the trading book: a comparison of the Basel II and Basel III

This paper aims to investigate if the market capital charge of the trading book increased in Basel III compared to Basel II. I showed that the capital charge rises by 232% and 182% under the standardized and internal model, respectively. The varying liquidity horizons, the calibration to a stress period, the introduction of credit spread risk, the restrictions on correlations across risk categories and the incremental default charge boost Basel III requirements. Nevertheless, the impact of Expected shortfall at 97.5% is low and long term shocks decrease the charge. The standardized approach presents advantages and disadvantages relative to internal models.

Evidence of market anomalies in the Eurozone: A practical implementation

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Master’s Double Degree in Finance and Financial Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics and Maastricht University

Modeling and forecasting value-at-risk for the Portuguese stock market

The aim of this work project is to find a model that is able to accurately forecast the daily Value-at-Risk for PSI-20 Index, independently of the market conditions, in order to expand empirical literature for the Portuguese stock market. Hence, two subsamples, representing more and less volatile periods, were modeled through unconditional and conditional volatility models (because it is what drives returns). All models were evaluated through Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s tests, by comparing forecasts with actual results. Using an out-of-sample of 204 observations, it was found that a GARCH(1,1) is an accurate model for our purposes.

Predicting market direction with hidden Markov models

This paper develops the model of Bicego, Grosso, and Otranto (2008) and applies Hidden Markov Models to predict market direction. The paper draws an analogy between financial markets and speech recognition, seeking inspiration from the latter to solve common issues in quantitative investing. Whereas previous works focus mostly on very complex modifications of the original hidden markov model algorithm, the current paper provides an innovative methodology by drawing inspiration from thoroughly tested, yet simple, speech recognition methodologies. By grouping returns into sequences, Hidden Markov Models can then predict market direction the same way they are used to identify phonemes in speech recognition. The model proves highly successful in identifying market direction but fails to consistently identify whether a trend is in place. All in all, the current paper seeks to bridge the gap between speech recognition and quantitative finance and, even though the model is not fully successful, several refinements are suggested and the room for improvement is significant.

The financial system in Mozambique: Opportunities, barriers and market potential

This research is empirical and exploratory intending to analyse the attractiveness of banking in Mozambique, considering its positive outlook. To identify the opportunities and barriers, the methods adopted were elite interviews with banking executives, complemented by secondary data. The opportunities for new entrants seem to include bankarization and the emergence of micro and smallmedium enterprises; other avenues seem to include investment banking, support of mega-projects (e.g. energy, infrastructures) through syndicates and cooperation with multilaterals, and the participation in developing capital markets. Conversely, the main barriers include shortage of talent, inadequate infrastructures, poverty, unsophisticated entrepreneurial culture (e.g. informal economy, inadequate financial reporting), burdensome bureaucracy (e.g. visas), foreign exchange regulation, as well as low liquidity and high funding costs for banks. The key conclusions suggest a window of opportunity for niche markets, and new products and services in retail and investment banking.

Impact of corporate social responsibility in the European pharmaceutical market

The objective of this master thesis is to evaluate the impact of CSR measures in the financial performance of the European pharmaceutical industry. By definition, CSR measures is quantified as corporate social disclosure considering the published CSR keywords on the annual reports of the selected companies, over four fiscal years (2010-2013). The financial performance of the companies were measured as return on assets (ROA) and Tobin’s Q. In order to defend the hypothesis developed, a multivariate regression is performed. The results obtained show no significant impact on the financial performance of a company nor in the short-time, nor in the long-time. Moreover, by comparison with other studies, it was possible to conclude that the financial performance is differently affected when considering different industries.

Market value of corruption

This paper studies the impact of the Brazilian anticorruption legislation, PL 6826/2010, on stock returns. I show that, around the law approval date, the greater the link between the corporate and political worlds, the worse is the companies’ performance. Companies awarded with public contracts in 2012 suffer more with the new legislation approval. Firms with above median contract values have 2.9% lower returns than its peers. The negative effect is more pronounced for bigger and more complex entities, associated with higher levels of Corporate Responsibility and Governance and not subject to the US FCPA.

An internationalisation research project into the German market for the Portuguese canned seafood company COFACO.

This project is aimed to analyse the German market of canned fish, in order to find out if there is potential of entering the market for the Portuguese canned seafood company named COFACO. The purpose of this foreign market research, carried out for COFACO, is to highlight the main key aspects of the current German seafood market, founded out through a deep analysis. Moreover, the work project is also aimed to give the company suggestions regarding the Brand, the Product and the Distribution strategy to implement in order to succeed, once considered the opportunity to enter the market.