Using artificial neural networks to generate trading signals for crude oil, copper and gold futures

In this thesis, a feed-forward, back-propagating Artificial Neural Network using the gradient descent algorithm is developed to forecast the directional movement of daily returns for WTI, gold and copper futures. Out-of-sample back-test results vary, with some predictive abilities for copper futures but none for either WTI or gold. The best statistically significant hit rate achieved was 57% for copper with an absolute return Sharpe Ratio of 1.25 and a benchmarked Information Ratio of 2.11.

The perfect paint in modern art conservation: a comparative study of 21st century vinyl emulsions

Contemporary painting places, and will continue to place, several questions about its meaning, its chemical nature, its durability and the best way to preserve it. This research aims at putting together comprehensive data on vinyl based paints, including their components, their properties, their aging behavior and their response to selected cleaning products. In this project degradation mechanisms of vinyl binders and formulations used in the 20th and 21st century were studied. Stability over time of selected vinyl polymers was assessed through natural indoor and artificially aging. The objective was to enhance knowledge and understanding of vinyl emulsion formulations and their performance over time. Overall conservation state of pictorial layers namely, adhesion, cohesion and discoloration of selected case studies from the Portuguese artist Julião Sarmento (b.1948) was correlated with the observed molecular level changes studied in laboratory experiments. Sarmento’s paintings were chosen due to conservation concerns (discoloration) on some of his works from the 90’s. Besides, research was carried out to start increasing the knowledge of what can be expected of PVAc based paints in terms of response to conservation treatments namely, surface cleaning. Artificial aging showed that the most recent formulations which are based on a poly(vinyl acetate), poly(vinyl chloride) and polyethylene terpolymer are less stable when compared to some homopolymer formulations. From the four pigments studied, titanium dioxide rutile and a carbon based black proved to be stabilizers for both types of polymer. The mixture lithopone plus calcium carbonate has showed to have a photocatalytic effect on the binders. The studied paintings showed to be in an overall good state of conservation except for the paintings created in the 90’s with white glue and a mixture of white lithoponeand calcium carbonate. Discoloration of this white paint seems to be irreversible and ongoing and is still a major concern. The disapearance of the plasticizer was the only change detected. The current works created by Sarmento are expected to be more stable as they were painted using the rutile titanium dioxide. Immersion/cleaning tests showed that vinyl based paints can be susceptible to water and organic solvents like ethanol as some evidences point to the removal/diffusion of additives from the paint. The observations made point to the need to further proceed in this research field.

Empowerment and intentions to resist future change: the moderating effect organization-based self-esteem

Nowadays, organizations face a constant need for adaptability, increasing the importance of change management. Our study focuses of how empowering leadership influences intentions to resist future changes, mediated by the effects of psychological and structural empowerment. From the responses of the two questionnaires (N1=230; Ntf=113), we found that empowering leadership fosters psychological and structural empowerment. Structural empowerment was the main driver in reducing intentions to resist future change when an employee has high organization-based self-esteem. Our findings add to the literature by examining how we can anticipate and manage change under an empowering context, building on social exchange and uncertainty reduction theories

Contributions towards smart cities : exploring block level census data for the characterization of change in Lisbon

The interest in using information to improve the quality of living in large urban areas and its governance efficiency has been around for decades. Nevertheless, the improvements in Information and Communications Technology has sparked a new dynamic in academic research, usually under the umbrella term of Smart Cities. This concept of Smart City can probably be translated, in a simplified version, into cities that are lived, managed and developed in an information-saturated environment. While it makes perfect sense and we can easily foresee the benefits of such a concept, presently there are still several significant challenges that need to be tackled before we can materialize this vision. In this work we aim at providing a small contribution in this direction, which maximizes the relevancy of the available information resources. One of the most detailed and geographically relevant information resource available, for the study of cities, is the census, more specifically the data available at block level (Subsecção Estatística). In this work, we use Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) and the variant Geo-SOM to explore the block level data from the Portuguese census of Lisbon city, for the years of 2001 and 2011. We focus on gauging change, proposing ways that allow the comparison of the two time periods, which have two different underlying geographical bases. We proceed with the analysis of the data using different SOM variants, aiming at producing a two-fold portrait: one, of the evolution of Lisbon during the first decade of the XXI century, another, of how the census dataset and SOM’s can be used to produce an informational framework for the study of cities.