49 resultados para Volatility forecast
Resumo:
Since the financial crisis, risk based portfolio allocations have gained a great deal in popularity. This increase in popularity is primarily due to the fact that they make no assumptions as to the expected return of the assets in the portfolio. These portfolios implicitly put risk management at the heart of asset allocation and thus their recent appeal. This paper will serve as a comparison of four well-known risk based portfolio allocation methods; minimum variance, maximum diversification, inverse volatility and equally weighted risk contribution. Empirical backtests will be performed throughout rising interest rate periods from 1953 to 2015. Additionally, I will compare these portfolios to more simple allocation methods, such as equally weighted and a 60/40 asset-allocation mix. This paper will help to answer the question if these portfolios can survive in a rising interest rate environment.
Resumo:
In the past few years, prompted by the globalization and the quality and ease of travel, the world has witnessed a boom in the tourism sector. The forecast is that this tendency will continue in the upcoming years, representing a set of opportunities for companies operating in this business area. Boost Tourism operates in the tourism entertainment industry. Its revenues growth has been exponential so the founders decided that it was time to take it to new heights. This Work Project aims to study three alternative growth strategies and, based on a comprehensive analysis of the industry and the market, provide recommendations to outline the optimal expansion path.
Resumo:
Having registered negative retail value growth of 4% in Portugal in 2014, the juice category is set to decline further by 5,5% until 2019. Manufacturers of juices and nectars are therefore increasingly looking for new categories in order to balance this negative forecast in their home territory. One apparent growth opportunity for Compal, the leading producer of juices and nectars, is to expand its commercial reach to new occasions of consumption. This report carefully analyzes the opportunities related to an expansion to the main meal occasion and introduces a complete marketing and communications plan for a possible new main meal juice, Compal à Mesa. The product concept represents a rather premium positioning for the main meal occasion, including new flavor mixes that are targeted at different occasions of meals. The justification of the introduced concept includes a discussion of the primary and secondary research that was performed
Resumo:
This paper analyses the Portuguese stock market since it reopened in 1977, with a special focus on the evolution of the statistic and stochastic characteristics of the market return throughout this 36 year period. The market return for the period of time between 1977 and 2012 (September 28th) is estimated and then compared with the return that would have been achieved with Government bonds and treasury bills, which allows us to confirm that the hierarchy of return / risk across the different financial instruments is verified. The market risk premium for this 36 year period is also estimated and a comparison with other markets is performed, suggesting that the Portuguese market’s risk has not been compensated by an adequate return. The study also examines the evolution of the Portuguese market’s volatility in the 1977-2012 period and compares it with other markets, showing the existence of extremely high peaks during the first 11 years, but indicating a downwards trend throughout the whole period under analysis. Finally, the correlation between market returns for Portugal and for other countries and the degree of integration are estimated and their evolution throughout time is assessed, leading to the conclusion that the performance of the Portuguese stock market has become increasingly correlated with major European markets – correlation with some markets close to 0.70 from 2000 onwards-, but that country-specific risk factors are still relevant.