Product relatedness role on driving industrial policy success

This thesis aims to study how product relatedness to the current pattern of specialization influences the success of industrial policies in underdeveloped sectors. Drawing from Hausmann and Klinger (2006), this work extends the existing literature on the importance of proximity spillovers to explain economic development by focusing on underdeveloped sectors. We find that investment's success in an underdeveloped sector is more likely if it is highly related to the current pattern of specialization. However, heterogeneity amongst sectors is remarkable. Moreover, industrial policy cases are sometimes successful despite the bad odds provided by this criterion, suggesting further factors should be considered.

Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in the Eurozone

To study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy across the different countries of the eurozone, I develop an identification scheme to disentangle conventional from non-conventional policy shocks, using futures contracts on overnight interest rates and the size of the European Central Bank balance sheet. Setting these shocks as endogenous variables in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, along with the CPI and the employment rate, estimated impulse response functions of policy to macroeconomic variables are studied. I find that unconventional policy shocks generated mixed effects in inflation but had a positive impact on employment, with the exception of Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy where the employment response is close to zero or negative. The heterogeneity that characterizes the responses shows that the monetary policy measures taken in recent years were not sufficient to stabilize the economies of the eurozone countries under more severe economic conditions.

Search-for-yield in Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds and monetary policy

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy on mutual fund risk taking using a sample of Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds in the 2000-2012 period. Firstly I estimate time-varying measures of risk exposure (betas) for the individual funds, for the benchmark portfolio, as well as for a representative equally-weighted portfolio, through 24-month rolling regressions of a two-factor model with two systematic risk factors: interest rate risk (TERM) and default risk (DEF). Next, in the second phase, using the estimated betas, I try to understand what portion of the risk exposure is in excess of the benchmark (active risk) and how it relates to monetary policy proxies (one-month rate, Taylor residual, real rate and first principal component of a cross-section of government yields and rates). Using this methodology, I provide empirical evidence that Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds respond to accommodative monetary policy by significantly increasing exposure, in excess of their benchmarks, to default risk rate and slightly to interest risk rate as well. I also find that the increase in funds’ risk exposure to gain a boost in return (search-for-yield) is more pronounced following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, indicating that the current historic low interest rates may incentivize excessive risk taking. My results suggest that monetary policy affects the risk appetite of non-bank financial intermediaries.

Effects of quantitative easing on the USA economy: A test for policy effectiveness

The catastrophic disruption in the USA financial system in the wake of the financial crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to launch a Quantitative Easing (QE) programme in late 2008. In line with Pesaran and Smith (2014), I use a policy effectiveness test to assess whether this massive asset purchase programme was effective in stimulating the economic activity in the USA. Specifically, I employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), in order to obtain a counterfactual for the USA real GDP growth rate. Using data from 1983Q1 to 2009Q4, the results show that the beneficial effects of QE appear to be weak and rather short-lived. The null hypothesis of policy ineffectiveness is not rejected, which suggests that QE did not have a meaningful impact on output growth.

Competition policy costs to firms

The existence of competition policy forces companies to adjust their behaviour. This is also costly. Using a database from a company on contracts, I will try to estimate if a specific competition policy disposition, supply contracts cannot be longer than 60 months, has costs for the coffee suppliers operating in the Portuguese “on-trade” coffee market. The estimation method used in this paper will be OLS. The results suggest that limiting the duration of exclusivity contracts to 60 months can be harmful to the coffee suppliers and it can even seriously affect the market functioning. Key

Energy efficiency in energy policy: Empirical evidence of direct rebound effect in Portuguese household's demand for electricity

This project the direct rebound effect for the electricity demand in Portugal. While we find evidence of such an effect, the estimations also reflect the institutional arrangement that has characterized the electricity market in the country. Also, issues related to energy efficiency promotion are addressed in general putting into context the case study developed.

Galp Energia Oil & Gas

Equity research report

Production of polyhydroxyalkanoates from oil-containing substrates

Different oil-containing substrates, namely, used cooking oil (UCO), fatty acids-byproduct from biodiesel production (FAB) and olive oil deodorizer distillate (OODD) were tested as inexpensive carbon sources for the production of polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) using twelve bacterial strains, in batch experiments. The OODD and FAB were exploited for the first time as alternative substrates for PHA production. Among the tested bacterial strains, Cupriavidus necator and Pseudomonas resinovorans exhibited the most promising results, producing poly-3-hydroxybutyrate, P(3HB), form UCO and OODD and mcl-PHA mainly composed of 3-hydroxyoctanoate (3HO) and 3-hydroxydecanoate (3HD) monomers from OODD, respectively. Afterwards, these bacterial strains were cultivated in bioreactor. C. necator were cultivated in bioreactor using UCO as carbon source. Different feeding strategies were tested for the bioreactor cultivation of C. necator, namely, batch, exponential feeding and DO-stat mode. The highest overall PHA productivity (12.6±0.78 g L-1 day-1) was obtained using DO-stat mode. Apparently, the different feeding regimes had no impact on polymer thermal properties. However, differences in polymer‟s molecular mass distribution were observed. C. necator was also tested in batch and fed-batch modes using a different type of oil-containing substrate, extracted from spent coffee grounds (SCG) by super critical carbon dioxide (sc-CO2). Under fed-batch mode (DO-stat), the overall PHA productivity were 4.7 g L-1 day-1 with a storage yield of 0.77 g g-1. Results showed that SCG can be a bioresource for production of PHA with interesting properties. Furthermore, P. resinovorans was cultivated using OODD as substrate in bioreactor under fed-batch mode (pulse feeding regime). The polymer was highly amorphous, as shown by its low crystallinity of 6±0.2%, with low melting and glass transition temperatures of 36±1.2 and -16±0.8 ºC, respectively. Due to its sticky behavior at room temperature, adhesiveness and mechanical properties were also studied. Its shear bond strength for wood (67±9.4 kPa) and glass (65±7.3 kPa) suggests it may be used for the development of biobased glues. Bioreactor operation and monitoring with oil-containing substrates is very challenging, since this substrate is water immiscible. Thus, near-infrared spectroscopy (NIR) was implemented for online monitoring of the C. necator cultivation with UCO, using a transflectance probe. Partial least squares (PLS) regression was applied to relate NIR spectra with biomass, UCO and PHA concentrations in the broth. The NIR predictions were compared with values obtained by offline reference methods. Prediction errors to these parameters were 1.18 g L-1, 2.37 g L-1 and 1.58 g L-1 for biomass, UCO and PHA, respectively, which indicates the suitability of the NIR spectroscopy method for online monitoring and as a method to assist bioreactor control. UCO and OODD are low cost substrates with potential to be used in PHA batch and fed-batch production. The use of NIR in this bioprocess also opened an opportunity for optimization and control of PHA production process.

Analysis and Treatment of a male portrait in oil and a study of the size layer with reconstructions from Vibert’s recipe (1892)

This thesis project concentrated on both the study and treatment of an early 20th century male portrait in oil from Colecção Caixa Geral de Depósitos, Lisbon, Portugal. The portrait of Januário Correia de Almeida, exhibits a tear (approximately 4.0 cm by 2.3 cm) associated with paint loss on the right upper side, where it is possible to observe an unusually thick size layer (approximately 50 microns) and an open weave mesh canvas. Size layers made from animal glue remain subject to severe dimensional changes due to changes in relative humidity (RH), thereby affecting the stability of the painting. In this case, the response to moisture of the size layer is minimal and the painting is largely uncracked with very little active flaking. This suggests that the size layer has undergone pre-treatment to render it unresponsive to moisture or water. Reconstructions based on late nineteenth century recipes using historically appropriate materials are used to explore various options for modifying the characteristics of gelatine, some of which may relate to the Portrait’s size layer. The thesis is separated into two parts: Part 1: Describes the history, condition, materials and techniques of the painting. It also details the treatment of Januário Correia de Almeida as well as the choices made and problems encountered during the treatment. Part 2: Discusses the history of commercial gelatine production, the choice of the appropriate animal source to extract the collagen to produce reconstructions of the portrait’s size layer as well as the characterization of selected reconstructions. The execution of a shallow textured infill led to one publication and one presentation: Abstract accepted for presentation and publication, International Meeting on Retouching of Cultural Heritage (RECH3), Francisco Brites, Leslie Carlyle and Raquel Marques, ‘’Hand building a Low Profile Textured Fill for a Large Loss’’.

Deflation and monetary policy: A look into Japan and the Euro Area

With more than two decades of weak economic performance since the bubble burst in the ‘90s, the Japanese deflationary scenario has become the economic fate every developed economy fears to become. As the euro area continues to experience sustained low inflation, studying the Japanese monetary policy may shed light on how to prevent persistent deflation. Using an SVAR methodology to understand the monetary transmission mechanism, we find some evidence that the euro area may possess characteristics that would eventually lead to a deflationary scenario. The extent of whether it would suffer the same Japanese fate would depend on how macroeconomic policies are timely coordinated as a response to its liquidity problem and increasing public debt across member states.

Consulting project for the marketing oil department of Galp Energia evaluation of marketing campaigns

Field lab: Consulting lab

Noble energy oil & Gas

Equity research report

Contribution of Mental Health Service User Groups to Mental Health Services and Policy in Ghana : The Case of Mental Health Society of Ghana

RESUMO: Este estudo procurou documentar a perspectiva (s) dos utentes de saúde mental e das associações de prestadores de cuidados sobre a prestação, o papel e a contribuição de serviços de saúde mental da comunidade tal como foram percebidos por um número de informadores-chave, incluindo os utentes do serviço mentais e os próprios prestadores de cuidados. O caso específico da Sociedade Saúde Mental do Gana (MEHSOG) foi o foco deste estudo. O modelo foi o de um estudo de caso, utilizando discussões de grupo e entrevistas com informadores-chave como instrumentos de recolha de dados. Estas ferramentas de colheita de dados foram complementadas por observações dos participantes e pela revisão de documentos da MEHSOG e dos vários grupos de apoio da comunidade de auto-ajuda que compõem a associação nacional. O estudo revelou que os utentes dos serviços de saúde mental e seus prestadores de cuidados constituem um importante grupo de partes interessadas na prestação de serviços de saúde mental da comunidade e no desenvolvimento de políticas que tenham em conta as necessidades e os direitos das pessoas com doença mental ou epilepsia. O envolvimento da MEHSOG promove a mobilização de membros e famílias relacionadas com a doença mental de beneficiar de serviços de tratamento bem organizados com um impacto significativo na melhoria da saúde e da participação dos utentes dos serviços e seus prestadores de cuidados primários em processos de tomada de decisão da família e na comunidade processos de desenvolvimento. Os utentes dos serviços por beneficiarem de tratamento, e os prestadores de cuidados primários, por se tornarem mais livres e menos sobrecarregados com a responsabilidade de cuidar, podem passar a envolver-se mais em atividades que melhoramo seu estado, o de suas famílias e das comunidades. A advocacia dos membros da MEHSOG para conseguir que a “Mental Health Bill” se transforme numa Lei foi também um desenvolvimento significativo resultante da participação ativa dos utentes do serviço em chamar a atenção para uma nova e inclusiva legislação de saúde mental para o Gana. Entre os fatores e oportunidades que permitiram aos utentes dos serviços de saúde mental e aos prestadores de cuidados primários de pessoas com doença mental apoiar activamente a prestação de serviços de saúde mental comunitária e o desenvolvimento de políticas conta-se a contribuição da sociedade civil do Gana, particularmente o movimento da deficiência, e os esforços anteriores de ONGs em saúde mental e dos profissionais de saúde mental para ter uma nova lei em saúde mental. Observámos um certo número de desafios e barreiras que actuam de forma a limitar a influência dos utentes dos serviços de saúde mental na provisão da saúde mental comunitária e no desenvolvimento de políticas. Entre elas o estigma social contra a doença mental e pessoas com doença mental ou epilepsia e seus cuidadores primaries é um factor chave. O estigma tem alterado a percepção e as análises do público em geral, especialmente dos profissionais de saúde e das autoridades políticas afetando a priorização dos problemas de saúde mental nas políticas e programas. Outro desafio foi a deficiente infra-estrutura disponível para apoiar serviços de saúde mentais que assegurem aos utentes permanecerem em bom estado de saúde e bem-estar para serem advogados de si próprios. A recomendação do presente estudo é que os movimentos de utentes dos serviços de saúde mental são importantes e que eles precisam de ser apoiados e encorajados a desempenhar o seu papel como pessoas com experiência vivida para contribuir para a organização e prestação de serviços de saúde mental, bem como para a implementação, monitorização e avaliação de políticas e programas. ------------------------------------ ABSTRACT: This study sought to document the perspective(s) of mental health users and care-givers associations in community mental health service provision and their role and contribution as it was perceived by a number of key informants including the mental service users and care-givers themselves. The specific case of the Mental Health Society of Ghana (MEHSOG) was the focus of this study. A case study approach was used to with Focus Group Discussions and Key Informants Interviews being the data collection tools that were used. These data collection tools were complemented by participant observations and review of documents of the MEHSOG and the various community self-help peer support groups that make up the national association. The study revealed that mental health service users and their care-givers constitute an important stakeholder group in community mental health service provision and development of policies that factor in the needs and rights of persons with mental illness or epilepsy. MEHSOG’s involvement in mobilising members and education families to come forward with the relations with mental illness to benefit from treatment services were well made a significant impact in improving the health and participation of service users and their primary carers in family decision-making processes and in community development processes. Service users, on benefiting from treatment, and primary care-givers, on becoming freer and less burdened with the responsibility of care, move on to engage in secure livelihoods activities, which enhanced their status in their families and communities. The advocacy MEHSOG members undertook in getting the mental health Bill become Law was also noted as significant development that was realised as a result of active involvement of service users in calling for a new and inclusive mental health legislation for Ghana. Enabling factors and opportunities that enabled mental health service users and primary care-givers of people with mental illness to actively support community mental health service provision and policy development is with the vibrant civil society presence in Ghana, particularly the disability movement, and earlier efforts by NGOs in mental health in Ghana long-side mental health professionals to have a new law in mental health. A number of challenges were also noted which were found to limit the extent to which mental health service users can be influential in community mental health service provision and policy development. Key among them was the social stigma against mental illness and people with mental illness or epilepsy and their primary carers. Stigma has affected perceptions, analyses of the general public, especially health practitioners and policy authorities that it has affected their prioritisation of mental health issues in policies and programmes. Another challenge was the poor infrastructure available to support enhanced mental health care services that ensure mental health service users remain in a good state of health and wellbeing to advocate for themselves. The recommendation from the study is that mental health service user movements are important and need to be supported and encouraged to play their role as persons with lived experience to inform organisation and provision of mental health services as well as design and implementation, monitoring and evaluation of policies and programes.