The patent expiry as a major inflection point in a branded Rx drug's life and strategies to counter generic competition - exemplified at Pfizer's blockbuster drug Lipitor in the USA

A large number of expensive, but highly profitable branded prescription drugs will go off-patent in the USA between 2011 and 2015. Their revenues are crucial to fund the immense costs associated with the development of an innovative drug. The rising cost pressure on pharmaceutical stakeholders has increased the demand for more affordable medications, as provided by the branded drug's generic counterpart. Yet, research based incumbents are moving beyond the traditional late lifecycle strategies and deploy more aggressive tactics in order to protect their brands, as seen with Pfizer's Lipitor!. It is doubtful, whether these efforts will help the blockbuster business model to resist current market conditions.

Evolution of reputation in networks: A mean field game approach

This work models the competitive behaviour of individuals who maximize their own utility managing their network of connections with other individuals. Utility is taken as a synonym of reputation in this model. Each agent has to decide between two variables: the quality of connections and the number of connections. Hence, the reputation of an individual is a function of the number and the quality of connections within the network. On the other hand, individuals incur in a cost when they improve their network of contacts. The initial value of the quality and number of connections of each individual is distributed according to an initial (given) distribution. The competition occurs over continuous time and among a continuum of agents. A mean field game approach is adopted to solve the model, leading to an optimal trajectory for the number and quality of connections for each individual.

Almirante: Evaluating the board game: Board game, startup, discounted cash flow, venture capital method, real options

This thesis evaluates a start-up company (Jogos Almirante Lda) whose single asset is a board game named Almirante. It aims to conclude whether it makes sense to create a company or just earn copyrights. The thesis analyzes the board game’s market, as part of the general toy’s market, from which some data exists: European countries as well as the USA. In this work it is analyzed the several ways to finance a start-up company and then present an overview of the valuation of the Jogos Almirante based on three different methods: Discounted Cash Flow, Venture Capital Method and Real Options.

SMEs engaging at the bottom of the pyramid: Exploring drivers of business strategies

This research paper investigates how the market conditions at the base of the pyramid (BOP) influences South African small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) to take certain business decisions in the townships and rural areas. It takes a qualitative approach to explore how SMEs with social objectives develops mitigating strategies to successfully engage with and in poor communities. The research suggests that prevailing BOP strategies are lacking certain aspects to successfully realize them on the ground. It advices firms to take a more practical hands-on approach to identify a sustainable business model by testing, experimenting, learning and adjusting, eventually being eligible for up-scaling.

The quest for growth in the German organic food retail market: Historical trends, current strategies, and future outlook

This paper aims to provide strategies for the organic supermarket chain “Alnatura” to shape the demand and its market share of the organic food & beverage (F&B) market in Germany within the next five years. Through the historic evolution and the current market assessment of Germany, compared to a benchmark country (US), as well as prospective trends in Germany, reasons and opportunities for market growth are evaluated. In addition, an industry attractiveness, competitor and company analysis is executed. Based on those findings and a conducted survey, suggestions to adjust Alnatura´s current business strategies are deduced and finally examined on its risk and feasibility.

“The impact of online ratings on video game sales”

Online third-party reviews have been grown over the last decade and they now play an important role as a tool for helping customers evaluate products and services that in many cases offer more than tangible features. This study intends to quantify the impact online ratings have over video game sales by conducting a linear regression analysis on 300 titles for the previous console generation (PlayStation® 3 and Xbox® 360) using a data from the video game industry to understand the existing influence on this particular market. The findings showed that these variables have a weak linear relationship thus suggesting that quality of a title explains little the commercial success of a video game and instead this should cover a wider range of factors. Afterwards, we compare results to previous ones and discuss the managerial implications for upcoming gaming generations.

Biological colonization on majolica glazed tiles: biodeterioration, bioreceptivity and mitigation strategies

The impact of microbial activity on the deterioration of cultural heritage is a well-recognized global problem. Glazed wall tiles constitute an important part of the worldwide cultural heritage. When exposed outdoors, biological colonization and consequently biodeterioration may occur. Few studies have dealt with this issue, as shown in the literature review on biodiversity, biodeterioration and bioreceptivity of architectural ceramic materials. Due to the lack of knowledge on the biodeteriogens affecting these assets, the characterization of microbial communities growing on Portuguese majolica glazed tiles, from Pena National Palace (Sintra, Portugal) and another from Casa da Pesca (Oeiras, Portugal) was carried out by culture and molecular biology techniques. Microbial communities were composed of microalgae, cyanobacteria, bacteria and fungi, including a new fungal species (Devriesia imbrexigena) described for the first time. Laboratory-based colonization experiments were performed to assess the biodeterioration patterns and bioreceptivity of glazed wall tiles produced in laboratory. Microorganisms previously identified on glazed tiles were inoculated on pristine and artificially aged tile models and incubated under laboratory conditions for 12 months. Phototrophic microorganisms were able to grow into glaze fissures and the tested fungus was able to form oxalates over the glaze. The bioreceptivity of artificially aged tiles was higher for phototrophic microorganisms than pristine tile models. A preliminary approach on mitigation strategies based on in situ application of commercial biocides and titanium dioxide (TiO2) nanoparticles on glazed tiles demonstrated that commercial biocides did not provide long term protection. In contrast, TiO2 treatment caused biofilm detachment. In addition, the use of TiO2 thin films on glazed wall tiles as a protective coating to prevent biological colonization was analysed under laboratorial conditions. Finally, conservation notes on tiles exposed to biological colonization were presented.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Development of process control strategies exploiting knowledge from systems biology: application to MDCK suspension cells

Madine Darby Canine Kidney (MDCK) cell lines have been extensively evaluated for their potential as host cells for influenza vaccine production. Recent studies allowed the cultivation of these cells in a fully defined medium and in suspension. However, reaching high cell densities in animal cell cultures still remains a challenge. To address this shortcoming, a combined methodology allied with knowledge from systems biology was reported to study the impact of the cell environment on the flux distribution. An optimization of the medium composition was proposed for both a batch and a continuous system in order to reach higher cell densities. To obtain insight into the metabolic activity of these cells, a detailed metabolic model previously developed by Wahl A. et. al was used. The experimental data of four cultivations of MDCK suspension cells, grown under different conditions and used in this work came from the Max Planck Institute, Magdeburg, Germany. Classical metabolic flux analysis (MFA) was used to estimate the intracellular flux distribution of each cultivation and then combined with partial least squares (PLS) method to establish a link between the estimated metabolic state and the cell environment. The validation of the MFA model was made and its consistency checked. The resulted PLS model explained almost 70% of the variance present in the flux distribution. The medium optimization for the continuous system and for the batch system resulted in higher biomass growth rates than the ones obtained experimentally, 0.034 h-1 and 0.030 h-1, respectively, thus reducing in almost 10 hours the duplication time. Additionally, the optimal medium obtained for the continuous system almost did not consider pyruvate. Overall the proposed methodology seems to be effective and both proposed medium optimizations seem to be promising to reach high cell densities.

Desenvolvimento de um serious game para a aprendizagem da leitura

A introdução de videojogos como ferramenta auxiliar do processo de educação tem vindo a crescer lado a lado com a evolução tecnológica. O aumento da capacidade dos processadores e das placas gráficas permitiram um aumento na complexidade dos videojogos e, por consequência, aumentaram as experiências fornecidas pelos mesmos. Sob o prisma da educação, o uso de um videojogo não foi a primeira ferramenta utilizada. O ensino por correspondência foi o primeiro auxílio ao método de ensino, iniciando assim o primeiro conceito de e-learning. Este permite enriquecer quem procura mais conhecimento, quem não consegue ter acesso ao mesmo ou quem tem dificuldades no ensino tradicional. A dificuldade presente em crianças com problemas do neurodesenvolvimento na aprendizagem da língua portuguesa é um problema na sociedade actual e para o combater são usados vários métodos manuais, sem recurso a tecnologia, passando normalmente por exercícios manuscritos e de observação. Desta forma, as pessoas que acompanham as crianças são obriga-das a estar presentes para recolher dados, em vez de se concentrarem nas outras actividades educativas. Este facto resulta numa possível falta de interesse por parte da criança no exercício apresentado, implicando uma perda de produtividade. A introdução de tecnologias ao serviço de causas sociais é crucial, pois permite um melhor acompanhamento das crianças, auxiliando tanto as pessoas que precisam do acompanhamento como aquelas que as acompanham. Por exemplo, um sistema automático que apresente os exercícios manuscritos num ecrã e, ao mesmo tempo, guarde os dados referentes ao seu uso seria útil para as pessoas que se encarregam de ajudar as crianças na aprendizagem da Língua Portuguesa. Esta dissertação insere-se num projecto desenvolvido pelo DIFERENÇAS – Centro de Desenvolvimento Infantil, denominado por “No Reino dos Fonemas”. Este projecto baseia-se em apresentar a crianças diversas imagens com objectivos diferentes de forma a cobrir as cinco vogais e todas as consoantes, no âmbito da aprendizagem da Língua Portuguesa. Neste contexto, as crianças podem-se interessar por um videojogo e aprender ao mesmo tempo, enquanto as pessoas que as acompanham, através dos dados do videojogo, podem focar-se mais nas dificuldades apresentadas por cada criança. Desta forma, é possível uma melhor organização dos dados de cada criança e, por conseguinte, um melhor acompanhamento das suas dificuldades.

Carry and trend-following strategies

Recent research has shown that carry and trend strategies when combined lead to significant risk-adjusted returns that can be very attractive to investors, at a low cost with small and positive skewness. This study proposes to combine both carry and trend-following, considering a data set of ten years (09/2005-09/2015), within a portfolio composed by three major asset classes: currencies, commodities and equity indices. Following a futures-based methodology, the obtained results show that, indeed, the strategy results inevitably in higher returns and greater sharpe ratios for every asset class in study. This outcome results from the fact that trend proved to provide a significant hedge to the downside risk that carry is exposed to.

Growth strategies in tourism entertainment industry - a pratical application-

In the past few years, prompted by the globalization and the quality and ease of travel, the world has witnessed a boom in the tourism sector. The forecast is that this tendency will continue in the upcoming years, representing a set of opportunities for companies operating in this business area. Boost Tourism operates in the tourism entertainment industry. Its revenues growth has been exponential so the founders decided that it was time to take it to new heights. This Work Project aims to study three alternative growth strategies and, based on a comprehensive analysis of the industry and the market, provide recommendations to outline the optimal expansion path.

Omni-channel retail strategies in the luxury world

It’s impossible to neglect the changes that internet and e-commerce caused in the retail sector, by increasing customers’ expectations and forcing retailers to adapt the business to the new digital era. Internet is characterized by the increase in accessibility to everyone, which can be good or not so. For instance, luxury products rely on the sense of exclusivity, instead of being accessible to everyone. Hence, internet represents a challenge for luxury brands once, although they are able to provide a fullness service to their customers, they need to maintain the exclusiveness in which luxury is sustained. Consequently, the appearance of omni-channel was more than a challenge for the luxury sector, in particular, given the need to provide a full integrated experience through different channels. The aim of this dissertation is to find out how important is omni-channel, even in the luxury industry, and how it’s actually implemented based on the case of one of the most successful companies on luxury fashion e-commerce industry – Farfetch. Even though the company started in London, its founder is a Portuguese entrepreneur, and it’s in Portugal where most of its employees work, divided in two offices – Guimarães e Porto. Therefore, a literature review was written on relevant concepts and ideas about luxury, e-commerce and the different channels’ approaches. There were formulated five propositions that were after discussed according to the information gathered about the company and its strategies. In the end, it was possible to identify which propositions are in accordance with theory and which are not, as well as understand which are the most important strategies and trends about omni-channel in the luxury fashion e-commerce sector.

Online strategies for offline business the case of Millennials and shopping centrs (Sonae Sierra)

The project, conducted within a direct research internship at Sonae Sierra, aims to propose innovative digital approaches for Shopping Centres (SC) to deal successfully with millennial consumer behavior concerning digital devices and online content in relation to shopping. An online survey followed by a focus group were conducted for this purpose. Results show a demand for specific digital services created by a SC and that their perception depends highly on gender of millennials. Moreover it´s a cohort seeking for personalized content, providing emotional or functional benefit. Consequently a SC must deliver services, as presented in this work satisfying those needs.