MarketOpolis: A market simulation based on investors decisions

This study aims to replicate Apple’s stock market movement by modeling major investment profiles and investors. The present model recreates a live exchange to forecast any predictability in stock price variation, knowing how investors act when it concerns investment decisions. This methodology is particularly relevant if, just by observing historical prices and knowing the tendencies in other players’ behavior, risk-adjusted profits can be made. Empirical research made in the academia shows that abnormal returns are hardly consistent without a clear idea of who is in the market in a given moment and the correspondent market shares. Therefore, even when knowing investors’ individual investment profiles, it is not clear how they affect aggregate markets.

Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.

O fenómeno da criminalidade itinerante

In an increasingly globalized society, the crime appears as a reality that crosses borders. Globalization has potentiated the emergence of new forms of crime, which have been the subject of more interventional, particularly in terms of political, judicial and police authorities as well as civil society approaches. The media allow rapid expansion of criminal methodologies, which aggregate to the ease of movement of itinerant criminal groups, increases the opportunities for the continuation of the practice of criminal offenses, threatening, increasingly, the tranquility and safety of populations. Criminal organizations are characterized by their complexity, thus contributing to the difficulty in combat, by police and judicial authorities, forcing rapid adaptation to new political and criminal reality, particularly at the level of institutional cooperation, national and international, as exemplified by the creation of the "European Area of Freedom, Security and Justice" and new agencies in the field of police cooperation. It was intended with this paper to answer the central question: Is it possible to define a concept of Itinerant Crime in the European regulatory framework (Police and Judiciary)? To fulfill this aim, we performed the characterization of the concept of itinerant crime including itinerant criminal group, we analyzed the work that is being done by the authorities, police and judiciary, in order to contain the phenomenon. Finally, we studied type of existing cooperation at European level between the Member States and the authorities with responsibilities in this area. At the end, we conclude that efforts are being made towards the enhancement of operational, police and judicial cooperation, between the competent authorities of the European Union by combating this phenomenon. Define, and also proposed, a unique concept of Itinerant Crime, in order to be included in the legal standards, in order to facilitate research, in particular to better fit the itinerant crime and assist the prosecution of offenders.

Natural hydraulic lime (nhl3.5) mortars with scrap tire rubber

The use of wastes and industrial by-products as building materials is an important issue in order to decrease costs with waste management and the embodied energy of building products. In this study scrap tire rubber was used as additional aggregate of mortars based on natural hydraulic lime NHL 3.5 and natural sand. Different particle size fractions and proportions of scrap tire rubber were used: a mix obtained directly from industry and separated fine, medium and coarse fractions; 0 %, 18 %, 36 % and 54 % of the weight of binder, corresponding to 2.5 %, 5 % and 7.5 % of the weight of sand. As mortars based on NHL specifications became stricter with the current version of EN 459–1:2015, the influence of the rubber’s additions on the mortars’ fresh state, mechanical and physical performance is presented in this work: flow table consistency, water retention, dynamic elasticity modulus, flexural and compressive strength, open porosity and bulk density, capillary absorption, drying and thermal conductivity are studied. The use of the rubber mix coming from the waste tire industry seems advantageous and may open possibilities for use as raw material by the mortars industry.

Bias in returns to tenure when firm wages and employment comove: A quantitative assessment and solution

It is well known that, unless worker-firm match quality is controlled for, returns to firm tenure (RTT) estimated directly via reduced form wage (Mincer) equations will be biased. In this paper we show that even if match quality is properly controlled for there is a further pervasive source of bias, namely the co-movement of firm employment and firm wages. In a simple mechanical model where human capital is absent and separation is exogenous we show that positively covarying shocks (either aggregate or firm level) to firms employment and wages cause downward bias in OLS regression estimates of RTT. We show that the long established procedures for dealing with "traditional" RTT bias do not circumvent the additional problem we have identified. We argue that if a reduced form estimation of RTT is undertaken, firm-year fixed effects must be added in order to eliminate this bias. Estimates from two large panel datasets from Portugal and Germany show that the bias is empirically important. Adding firm-year fixed effects to the regression increases estimates of RTT in the two respective countries by between 3.5% and 4.5% of wages at 20 years of tenure over 80% (50%) of the estimated RTT level itself. The results extend to tenure correlates used in macroeconomics such as the minimum unemployment rate since joining the firm. Adding firm-year fixed effects changes estimates of these effects also.

Portugal Telecom

This Masters Thesis aims to be used in class for teaching purposes. The primary objective of the case is to understand the way critical anti-takeover measures can be used in a hostile takeover environment. The case portrays not only all defensive tools used by PT against Sonaecom (conditioned by the Portuguese Securities Code) but also all major interactions with relevant stakeholders. Communication is positioned as a central tool to stakeholders’ interaction. As a consequence of that, students are supposed to comprehend how PT used this instrument to implement its defensive strategy. This Masters Thesis was written essentially from PT’s perspective but it also includes all available Sonacom’s public statements and data. It joins several different points of view (from PT’s CEO and top management to PT’s employees and labor unions). Therefore, it is not supposed to mach exactly to one’s perspective of Sonecom’s takeover attempt but instead to be an aggregate view of the case. The mains idea is to promote debate in order to create an interactive class environment among session’s attendants. Main areas developed in this Thesis are Mergers and Acquisitions, Corporate Communication and Corporate Governance. The case's recommended questions are in line with these areas. Suggested answers for these questions are balanced with some academic documentation that can be complemented with some in-class notes according to the session's objectives.