Return Migration, Self-Selection and Entrepreneurship in Mozambique

Does return migration affect entrepreneurship? This question has important implications for the debate on the economic development effects of migration for origin countries. The existing literature has, however, not addressed how the estimation of the impact of return migration on entrepreneurship is affected by double unobservable migrant self-selection, both at the initial outward migration and at the final inward return migration stages. This paper uses a representative household survey conducted in Mozambique in order to address this research question. We exploit variation provided by displacement caused by civil war in Mozambique, as well as social unrest and other shocks in migrant destination countries. The results lend support to negative unobservable self-selection at both and each of the initial and return stages of migration, which results in an under-estimation of the effects of return migration on entrepreneurial outcomes when using a ‘naïve’ estimator not controlling for self-selection. Indeed, ‘naïve’ estimates point to a 13 pp increase in the probability of owning a business when there is a return migrant in the household relative to non-migrants only, whereas excluding the double effect of unobservable self-selection, this effect becomes significantly larger - between 24 pp and 29 pp, depending on the method of estimation and source of variation used.

Incorporação de resíduos de cerâmica em argamassas de cal aérea

Sabe-se que aproximadamente 30% do material produzido pela indústria cerâmica é considerado desperdício e, frequentemente, depositado em aterro, com o impacto ambiental negativo que acarreta. Esta tem sido uma das grandes motivações para a crescente investigação que tem sido levada a cabo a fim de obter soluções viáveis para a sua reintrodução no processo produtivo. A viabilidade do uso de resíduos de material cerâmico tem vindo a ser avaliada, principalmente, na incorporação em betões ou em argamassas com base em cimento. Na antiguidade e na ausência de pozolanas naturais, eram frequentemente utilizados resíduos cerâmicos moídos, atuando como pozolanas artificiais e conferindo algumas características hidráulicas e de durabilidade às argamassas de cal aérea. Temse efetivamente constatado que alguns pós resultantes de desperdícios de cerâmica de barro vermelho, nomeadamente os que foram sujeitos a tratamento térmico a temperaturas inferiores a 900°C e moídos em granulometria fina, podem funcionar como pozolanas artificiais em argamassas. A introdução de resíduos de cerâmica em granulometria mais grossa nas argamassas, como agregado, pode também revelarse vantajoso, na medida em que permite substituir parcialmente a areia normalmente utilizada. Assim sendo, o recurso aos resíduos de cerâmica pode ser muito vantajoso em três vertentes principais: a redução de resíduos a depositar em aterro, a redução da extração de rochas para serem utilizadas na produção de ligantes e de areias e a produção de argamassas com comportamentos melhorados. Com o objetivo de analisar a viabilidade da introdução de resíduos de cerâmica em argamassas, que se pretendem sejam, essencialmente, adequadas como argamassas de substituição, tem vindo a ser desenvolvida investigação na Universidade de Coimbra em colaboração com a Universidade Nova de Lisboa. O trabalho que se apresenta neste artigo é uma pequena parte dessa investigação. Toda esta investigação tem tido o apoio de um projeto de investigação financiado pela FCT.

Hygrothermal behaviour of earthen plasters for sustainable housing construction

A ready-mixed and several laboratory formulated mortars were produced and tested in fresh state and after hardening, simulating a masonry plaster for indoor application. All the mortars used a clayish earth from the same region and different compositions of aggregates, eventually including fibres and a phase change material. All the formulated mortars were composed by 1:3 volumetric proportions of earth and aggregate. Tests were developed for consistency, fresh bulk density, thermal conductivity, capillary absorption and drying, water vapour permeability and sorption-desorption. The use of PCM changed drastically the workability of the mortars and increased their capillary absorption. The use of fibres and variations on particle size distribution of the mixtures of sand that were used had no significant influence on tested properties. But particularly the good workability of these mortars and the high capacity of sorption and desorption was highlighted. With this capacity plasters made with these mortars are able to adsorb water vapour from indoor atmosphere when high levels of relative humidity exist and release water vapour when the indoor atmosphere became too dry. This fact makes them able to contribute passively for a healthier indoor environment. The technical, ecological and environmental advantages of the application of plasters with this type of mortars are emphasized, with the aim of contributing for an increased use for new or existent housing.

Long-run performance of sovereign rating changes

This paper examines the impact of Sovereign rating changes on the aggregate stock and bond market returns both in emerging and developed countries. Rating downgrades in emerging markets are associated with significant negative wealth effects both in the stock and bond markets. Moreover, the effects of rating downgrades persist up to six-months after the event. In contrast, upgrades in emerging markets convey no information. Rating changes in developed markets have no significant impact on either stock and bond market returns. Rating agencies act pro-cyclically, downgrading countries in bad times and, consequently, contributing to the instability in emerging markets.

NHL 3.5 mortars with scrap tire rubber

The use of wastes and industrial by-products as building materials is an important issue in order to decrease costs with waste management and the embodied energy of building products. Scrap tire rubber has been studied as aggregate for cementitious materials. Natural hydraulic limes are natural binders with particular characteristics of both air and hydraulic binders. Their specifications became stricter with the last version of EN 459-1:2010. In this study scrap tire rubber was used as additional aggregate of mortars, based on NHL3.5 and natural sand. Different particle size fractions and proportions of scrap tire rubber were used: a mix obtained almost directly from industry (only after sieving for preparation of particle sizes similar to mortar aggregate) and separated fine, medium and coarse fractions; 0%, 18%, 36% and 54% weight of binder, corresponding to 2.5%, 5% and 7.5% weight of sand. The influence of the rubbers´ additions on the mortars´ fresh state, mechanical and physical performance is presented, namely by flow table consistency, water retention, fresh bulk density, dynamic elasticity modulus, flexural and compressive strength, open porosity and bulk density, capillary absorption, drying and thermal conductivity. The use of the rubber mix coming from the waste tire industry seems advantageous and may open possibilities for use as raw material by the mortars industry.

Mental health and the crisis: Evidence from share

Mental health constitutes a significant share of the global burden of disease. It is shaped to a great extent by socioeconomic factors and is vulnerable to external shocks. The recent financial crisis brought about stressors prone to trigger and aggravate mental illnesses. This project presents a micro analysis of the effect of the economic crisis on mental health in eleven European countries, through the estimation of individual health production functions accounting for socioeconomic controls and macroeconomic indicators. We find that mental health has deteriorated since 2007, even though the development of depression episodes is unchanged. Additionally, his variation can be partially attributed to economic recession and budgetary cuts in health spending.

Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in the Eurozone

To study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy across the different countries of the eurozone, I develop an identification scheme to disentangle conventional from non-conventional policy shocks, using futures contracts on overnight interest rates and the size of the European Central Bank balance sheet. Setting these shocks as endogenous variables in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, along with the CPI and the employment rate, estimated impulse response functions of policy to macroeconomic variables are studied. I find that unconventional policy shocks generated mixed effects in inflation but had a positive impact on employment, with the exception of Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy where the employment response is close to zero or negative. The heterogeneity that characterizes the responses shows that the monetary policy measures taken in recent years were not sufficient to stabilize the economies of the eurozone countries under more severe economic conditions.

Brazilian equity risk premium analysis: A macroeconomic approach

Double Degree Masters in Economics Program from Insper and NOVA School of Business and Economics

Market risk charge of the trading book: a comparison of the Basel II and Basel III

This paper aims to investigate if the market capital charge of the trading book increased in Basel III compared to Basel II. I showed that the capital charge rises by 232% and 182% under the standardized and internal model, respectively. The varying liquidity horizons, the calibration to a stress period, the introduction of credit spread risk, the restrictions on correlations across risk categories and the incremental default charge boost Basel III requirements. Nevertheless, the impact of Expected shortfall at 97.5% is low and long term shocks decrease the charge. The standardized approach presents advantages and disadvantages relative to internal models.

To what extent do aspects of sustainability impact established firms' resilience

An organizations´ level of sustainability has so far been primarily been analyzed within the context of economic performance. This study changes that dependent variable to “resilience”, namely a company’s ability to recover from potential lethal shocks or disruptive events. The research questions aims to investigate whether sustainability and resilience are related. This study utilizes the financial crisis from 2007/08 as disruptive event, as it encompassed market phase-out but also survival by established firms. Two Swiss luxury watchmaking companies have been chosen as industry sample and the study’s investigation is based on a comparative case study approach. The latter applies both quantitative data, in the form of the respective annual company reports, and qualitative data, in the form of semi-structured interviews with three stakeholder groups. Findings indicate that the investigated measures of sustainability are related the investigated companies’ level of resilience. These findings contribute to the building of new theory towards resilience as this study outlines specifically which measures have been proven to be of relevance for companies’ resilience. Moreover, the results are of high relevance for companies that are operating in constant evolving markets and struggling adapting to any disruptive environment as it is outlined why and how comparative companies have to be sustainable in order to become more resilient towards future shocks.

The effect of social and environmental sustainability on firm resilience

Double degree

Competition effects from patient mobility in the European Union

This paper studies the effects of reimbursement for medical tourism within the European Union. We use a spatial competition framework to study the effects on prices, qualities and patient flows between two countries. Patient mobility increases with the implementation of reimbursement mechanisms. The resulting equilibria in prices and qualities depend on the rule of reimbursements and possible differences in country specific parameters. Soft budget constraints that public providers may have, pose a competitive advantage over private providers and divert demand toward the former. Supranational coordination concerning soft budgets constraints is needed to address the potentially detrimental effects on aggregate welfar

Basel III new capital requirements, impacts and bank behavior

For some years, researchers could not find a clear effect of capital adequacy on the risk profile of banks, as shareholders could increase the riskiness of the assets (qualitative effect), crowding-out the effect of reduced leverage (volume effect). Some shareholders might have the will to increase the riskiness of the assets, but they may lack the power to do so. Considering only ”powerful” shareholders, definitive conclusions were drawn but with constant ownership profile. In this paper I investigate whether there is a significant change in the type of shareholders in response to regulatory capital shocks and, if so, will the banking system be in the hands of more “desired” shareholders. I find that ownership profile responds to a regulatory shock, changing the risk appetite of the ruling power at the bank. I find more banks and the government in the ownership of undercapitalised banks and much less institutional shareholders and free float. I claim that these new shareholders may not the desired ones, given the objective of the regulatory change, as they are associated with a preference for more leverage. One possible explanation for this crowding-out effect is that regulators are trying to contain idiosyncratic risk (more linked to the riskiness of the assets) with a rule that contains systematic risk (capital adequacy). This has a distorting effect on ownership. Another insight can be drawn from the tests: supervisors should be aware of significant ownership movements that cause the crowding-out.

Fiscal adjustments and sovereign default in different government systems

This paper extends the model of Spolaore (2004) about adjustments in di erent government systems for the context of scal adjustments and sovereign default. We introduce asymmetry between groups in income and preferences towards scal reforms. Default a ects di erently each group and becomes a possibility if reforms are not enacted after public nance solvency shocks, in uencing the political game according to its likelihood. With the extensions, new situations which were not possible with the previous framework arise. After the exposition of the model, the Argentine default in 2001 provides an example of the political con icts addressed by the model.

Drilling deeper: Understanding trade in Angola

The present study analyzes Angola’s trading partners from 2005 to 2015 in order to understand the main drivers of Exports and Imports growth. Departing from a gravity model, foreign GDP growth and real exchange rate fluctuations were interpreted as demand and supply disturbances on Exports. While nominal and real exports both increase with demand expansions, they react differently to supply shocks. Imports are growing at the same rate as Angola’s economy while exchange rate fluctuations capture the wealth effect of Oil price in the economy.