44 resultados para forecast deviation


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RESUMO: INTRODUÇÃO: A OMS (2001) revela que cerca de 450 milhões de pessoas sofrem de perturbações mentais ou comportamentais em todo o mundo, mas apenas uma pequena minoria tem tratamento, ainda que elementar. Transformam-se em vítimas por causa da sua doença e convertem-se em alvos de estigma e discriminação. O suicídio é considerado como um grande problema de saúde pública em todo o mundo, é uma das principais causas de morte de jovens adultos e situa-se entre as três maiores causas de morte na população entre 15-34 anos (OMS, 2001). As perturbações mentais aumentam o risco de suicídio. A depressão, esquizofrenia, e a utilização de substâncias incrementam o risco de suicídio. Estudos (Sartorius, 2002; Magliano et al., 2012) mostram que os profissionais de saúde, tal como o público em geral, podem ter atitudes negativas e estigma em relação às pessoas com perturbações mentais, podendo agir em conformidade, uma vez feito e conhecido o diagnóstico psiquiátrico. Os clínicos gerais são os receptores das perturbações mentais e tentativas de suicídio nas principais portas de entrada no acesso a cuidados de saúde. As crenças, conhecimentos e contacto com a doença mental e o suicídio, podem influenciar a atenção clínica. OBJECTIVOS: Avaliar o estigma e as percepções dos médicos de clínica geral em relação às tentativas de suicídio, o suicídio e perturbações mentais bem como os possíveis factores associados a estes fenómenos. MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: Estudo do tipo transversal, combinando métodos quantitativos e qualitativos. A amostra é constituída por 125 sujeitos, médicos de clínica geral. Utilizaram-se as versões adaptadas dos seguintes instrumentos: Questionário sobre Percepções e Estigma em Relação à Saúde Mental e ao Suicídio (Liz Macmin e SOQ, Domino, 2005) e a Escala de Atitudes sobre a Doença Mental (Amanha Hahn, 2002). Para o tratamento estatístico dos dados usou-se a estatística 1) descritiva e 2) Análise estatística das hipóteses formuladas (Qui Quadrado - 2) a correlação entre variáveis (Spearman: ρ, rho). Os dados conectados foram limpos de inconsistências com base no pacote informático e estatístico SPSS versão 20. Para a aferição da consistência interna foi usado o teste de Alfa de Cronbach. RESULTADOS: Uma boa parte da amostra (46.4%) refere que não teve formação formal ou informal em saúde mental e (69.35%) rejeitam a ideia de que “grupos profissionais como médicos, dentistas e psicólogos são mais susceptíveis a cometer o suicídio”. Já (28.0%) têm uma perspectiva pessimista quanto a possibilidade de recuperação total dos sujeitos com perturbação mental. Sessenta e oito(54.4%) associa sujeitos com perturbação mental, a comportamentos estranhos e imprevisíveis, 115 (92.0%) a um baixo QI e 35 (26.7%) a poderem ser violentas e e perigosas. Os dados mostram uma associação estatisticamente significativa (p0.001) entre as variáveis: tempo de serviço no SNS, recear estar perto de sujeitos com doença mental e achar que os sujeitos com doença mental são mais perigosos que outros. Em termos estatísticos, existe uma associação estatitisticamente significativa entre as duas variáveis(X2=9,522; p0.05): percepção de que “é vergonhoso ter uma doença mental” e os conhecimentos em relação à doença mental. Existe uma correlação positiva, fraca e estatisticamente significativa entre os conhecimentos dos clínicos gerais(beneficiar-se de formação em saúde mental) e a percepção sobre os factores de risco (0,187; P0,039). DISCUSSÃO E CONCLUSÕES: A falta de conhecimento sobre as causas e factores de risco para os comportamentos suicidários, opções de intervenção e tratamento, particularmente no âmbito da doença mental, podem limitar a procura de ajuda individual ou dos próximos. Percepções negativas como o facto de não merecerem prioridade nos serviços, mitos (frágeis e cobarde, sempre impulsivo, chamadas de atenção, problemas espirituais) podem constituir-se como um indicador de que os clínicos gerais podem sofrer do mesmo sistema de estigma e crenças, de que sofre o público em geral, podendo agir em conformidade (atitudes de afastamento ereceio). As atitudes são influenciadas por factores como a formação, cultura e sistema de crenças. Sujeitos com boa formação na área da saúde mental têm uma percepção positiva e optimista sobre os factores de risco e uma atitude positiva em relação aos sujeitos com doença mental e comportamentos suicidários.-------------ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: The WHO (2001) reveals that about 450 million people suffer from mental or behavioral disorders worldwide, but only a small minority have access to treatment, though elementary. They become victims because of their disease and they become the targets of stigma and discrimination. Suicide is seen as a major public health problem worldwide, is a leading cause of death for young adults and is included among the three major causes of death in the population aged 15-34 years (WHO, 2001). Mental disorders increase the risk of suicide. Depression, schizophrenia, and the substances misuse increase the risk of suicide. Studies (Sartorius, 2002; Magliano et al, 2012) show that health professionals, such as the general public, may have negative attitudes and stigma towards people with mental disorders, and can act accordingly after psychiatric diagnosis is known. General practitioners are the main entry points of mental disorders and suicide attempts in the health sistem. Beliefs, knowledge and contact with mental illness and suicide, may influence clinical care. OBJECTIVES: To assess stigma and perceptions of general practitioners in relation to suicide attempts, suicide and mental disorders as well as possible factors associated with these phenomena. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This was a descriptive cross-sectional study, combining quantitative and qualitative methods. The sample consisted of 125 subjects, general practitioners. We used adapted versions of the following instruments: Questionnaire of Perceptions and Stigma in Relation to Mental Health and Suicide (Liz Macmin and SOQ, Domino, 2005) and the Scale of Attitudes on Mental Illness (Tomorrow Hahn, 2002). For the statistical treatment of the data we used: 1) descriptive (Data distribution by absolute and relative frequencies for each of the variables under study (including mean and standard deviation measures of central tendency and deviation), 2) statistical analysis of hypotheses using (Chi Square - 2, a hypothesis test that is intended to find a value of dispersion for two nominal variables, evaluating the association between qualitative variables) and the correlation between variables (Spearman ρ, rho), a measure of non-parametric correlation, which evaluates an arbitrary monotonic function can be the description of the relationship between two variables, without making any assumptions about the frequency distribution of the variables). For statistical analysis of the correlations were eliminated subjects who did not respond to questions. The collected data were cleaned for inconsistencies based on computer and statistical package SPSS version 20. To measure the internal consistency was used the Cronbach's alpha test. RESULTS: A significant part of the sample 64 (46.4%) reported no formal or informal training in mental health and 86 (69.35%) reject the idea that "professional groups such as doctors, dentists and psychologists are more likely to commit suicide." On the other hand, 42 (28.0%) have a pessimistic view of the possibility of full recovery of individuals with mental disorder. Sixty-eight ( 54.4 % ) of them associates subjects with mental disorder to strange and unpredictable behavior, 115 ( 92.0 % ), to low IQ, 35 ( 26.7 % ) and even to violent and dangerous behavior, 78 ( 62.4 % ) The data show a statistically significant (p = 0.001) relationship between the following variables: length of service in the NHS, fear of being close to individuals with mental illness and considering individuals with mental illness more dangerous than others. In statistical terms, there is a dependency between the two variables (X2 = 9.522, p> 0.05): the perception that "it is shameful to have a mental illness" and knowledge regarding mental illness. There is a positive and statistically significant weak correlation between knowledge of general practitioners (benefit from mental health training) and the perception of the risk factors (0,187; P0,039). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The lack of knowledge about the causes and risk factors for suicidal behavior, intervention and treatment, particularly in the context of mental illness options, may decreaseseeking for help by individual and their relatives. Negative perceptions such as considering that they dont deserve priority in services, myths (weak and cowards, always impulsive, seeking for attentions, spirituals problems) may indicate that general practitioners, may suffer the same stigma and beliefs systems as the general public, and can act accordingly (withdrawal and fear attitudes). Attitudes are influenced by factors such as education, culture and belief system. Subjects with good training in mental health have a positive and optimistic perception of the risk factors and a positiveattitude towards individuals with mental illness and suicidal behaviour.

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This marketing plan project is a culmination of extensive strategies with the use of experiential marketing to address issues confronting the Kenyan tourism industry in order to have a sustainable tourism sector. Following the terrorist attack carried out by Islamist militants’ belonging to al-Shabaab terrorist organization on Nairobi’s Westgate shopping mall in September 2013, tourist forecast has gone down sharply with an average of 20% fall in tourists’ arrivals which is likely to have an impact on the tourism sector in Kenya. Even before the deadly attack on Westgate, the most lethal attack by Islamist terrorists in 15 years in Kenya, the government through the Kenya tourist board had announced that in 2013 tourist arrivals were down by 12%, at 495,978, according to an October 2013 report by Bloomberg. Tourism revenues were also down by 7.4%, over FY12/13 (July-June) to reach KES96.24bn, according to a September 2013 report on the local Capital FM website. Beyond 2013, much will depend on how quickly the Kenya tourist board can regain control of the situation. The Kenyan government believes that the Westgate mall attack was a 'one-off' incident, with a low probability of a similar event happening again over the short term period. Germany, United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Italy, France and Canada continue to be the key source market however; the Kenya tourist board can make continued growth stronger from new emerging markets in order to increase new arrivals into the country. The marketing plan outlines the objectives to be implemented and provides the implementation strategy, activity plans, monitoring and evaluation plans, financial requirements projections and proposes a new structure of experiential marketing. A number of regional forces are identified that will impact tourism into the country including global, social and economic forces, emerging trends in visitor motivations and behavior, emerging forces in experiential marketing. A major component of the strategy identifies target markets for Kenya to commensurate with the level of resources that will be available for marketing and promotion, in keeping with the forces and trends identified and the nature of the Kenya tourism environment. The agreed upon target market segments are: generic/mass travel, experiential travel, creative travel, adventure seeking travel, senior/extended/long stay travel, and business related travel. The strategy phases the development of the target markets over the years of the marketing strategies in order to yield the best opportunity for results. A core activity in developing a marketing strategy is determining the nature of experiences Kenya offers in tourism. The strategy’s experience development process will continue to develop within the context of the products identified which will be promoted regionally: culture/heritage, nature, community-based. Each county in the country has a significant number of attractions and experiences and the challenge of the country is to bring these together in a creative and innovative way in order to encourage tourists to visit more than one county in Kenya.

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The aim of this work project is to find a model that is able to accurately forecast the daily Value-at-Risk for PSI-20 Index, independently of the market conditions, in order to expand empirical literature for the Portuguese stock market. Hence, two subsamples, representing more and less volatile periods, were modeled through unconditional and conditional volatility models (because it is what drives returns). All models were evaluated through Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s tests, by comparing forecasts with actual results. Using an out-of-sample of 204 observations, it was found that a GARCH(1,1) is an accurate model for our purposes.

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Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) is an approach used to measure the systemic risk financial institutions face. It estimates how significantly systemic events (poor market performance, out of 1.6 times Standard Deviation borders) are expected to affect market capitalization of a particular firm. The concept was developed in the late 2000s and is widely used for cross-country comparisons of financial firms. For the purposes of generalization of this technique it is often used with market data containing non-domestic currencies for some financial firms. That may lead to results having currency noise in them as it is shown for 77 UK financial firms in our analysis between 2001 and 2014.

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In this paper, we investigate whether being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza of capital flows. Our sample period is from 1995 until 2014. We identify these two phenomena and we evaluate which push and pull factors help predict the conditional probability of experiencing one of them. We find that most countries had significant capital inflows until 2008 and that there were more sudden stops during the recent financial crisis than in any other moment in our sample. The factors that better help forecast the conditional probability of a sudden stop are global uncertainty (represented by the push factor “Volatility Index”), and the domestic economic activity (pull factors “GDP growth” and “consumer confidence”). An indicator of country risk (pull factor “change in credit rating”) is the most significant one for predicting bonanzas. Ultimately, we find no evidence that being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza.

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The primary purpose of this research is to examine the feasibility of expanding Quinta dos Açores retailer network in Lisbon starting from 2015 onwards. A time series model was developed to estimate the company’s future production and sales. A Discounted Cash Flow analysis was also conducted to determine the profitability of this expansion opportunity. Our findings reveal that Quinta dos Açores will face negative results in the first two years of the expansion strategy, but the overall opportunity presents a net positive result of almost three million euros.

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ABSTRACT - Objectives: We attempted to show how the implementation of the key elements of the World Health Organization Patient Safety Curriculum Guide Multi-professional Edition in an undergraduate curriculum affected the knowledge, skills, and attitudes towards patient safety in a graduate entry Portuguese Medical School. Methods: After receiving formal recognition by the WHO as a Complementary Test Site and approval of the organizational ethics committee , the validated pre-course questionnaires measuring the knowledge, skills, and attitudes to patient safety were administered to the 2nd and3rd year students pursuing a four-year course (N = 46). The key modules of the curriculum were implemented over the academic year by employing a variety of learning strategies including expert lecturers, small group problem-based teaching sessions, and Simulation Laboratory sessions. The identical questionnaires were then administered and the impact was measured. The Curriculum Guide was evaluated as a health education tool in this context. Results: A significant number of the respondents, 47 % (n = 22), reported having received some form of prior patient safety training. The effect on Patient Safety Knowledge was assessed by using the percentage of correct pre- and post-course answers to construct 2 × 2 contingency tables and by applying Fishers’ test (two-tailed). No significant differences were detected (p < 0.05). To assess the effect of the intervention on Patient Safety skills and attitudes, the mean and standard deviation were calculated for the pre and post-course responses, and independent samples were subjected to Mann-Whitney’s test. The attitudinal survey indicated a very high baseline incidence of desirable attitudes and skills toward patient safety. Significant changes were detected (p < 0.05) regarding what should happen if an error is made (p = 0.016), the role of healthcare organizations in error reporting (p = 0.006), and the extent of medical error (p = 0.005). Conclusions: The implementation of selected modules of the WHO Patient Safety Curriculum was associated with a number of positive changes regarding patient safety skills and attitudes, with a baseline incidence of highly desirable patient safety attitudes, but no measureable change on the patient safety knowledge, at the University of Algarve Medical School. The significance of these results is discussed along with implications and suggestions for future research.

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Many municipal activities require updated large-scale maps that include both topographic and thematic information. For this purpose, the efficient use of very high spatial resolution (VHR) satellite imagery suggests the development of approaches that enable a timely discrimination, counting and delineation of urban elements according to legal technical specifications and quality standards. Therefore, the nature of this data source and expanding range of applications calls for objective methods and quantitative metrics to assess the quality of the extracted information which go beyond traditional thematic accuracy alone. The present work concerns the development and testing of a new approach for using technical mapping standards in the quality assessment of buildings automatically extracted from VHR satellite imagery. Feature extraction software was employed to map buildings present in a pansharpened QuickBird image of Lisbon. Quality assessment was exhaustive and involved comparisons of extracted features against a reference data set, introducing cartographic constraints from scales 1:1000, 1:5000, and 1:10,000. The spatial data quality elements subject to evaluation were: thematic (attribute) accuracy, completeness, and geometric quality assessed based on planimetric deviation from the reference map. Tests were developed and metrics analyzed considering thresholds and standards for the large mapping scales most frequently used by municipalities. Results show that values for completeness varied with mapping scales and were only slightly superior for scale 1:10,000. Concerning the geometric quality, a large percentage of extracted features met the strict topographic standards of planimetric deviation for scale 1:10,000, while no buildings were compliant with the specification for scale 1:1000.

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This study aims to replicate Apple’s stock market movement by modeling major investment profiles and investors. The present model recreates a live exchange to forecast any predictability in stock price variation, knowing how investors act when it concerns investment decisions. This methodology is particularly relevant if, just by observing historical prices and knowing the tendencies in other players’ behavior, risk-adjusted profits can be made. Empirical research made in the academia shows that abnormal returns are hardly consistent without a clear idea of who is in the market in a given moment and the correspondent market shares. Therefore, even when knowing investors’ individual investment profiles, it is not clear how they affect aggregate markets.

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In this thesis, a feed-forward, back-propagating Artificial Neural Network using the gradient descent algorithm is developed to forecast the directional movement of daily returns for WTI, gold and copper futures. Out-of-sample back-test results vary, with some predictive abilities for copper futures but none for either WTI or gold. The best statistically significant hit rate achieved was 57% for copper with an absolute return Sharpe Ratio of 1.25 and a benchmarked Information Ratio of 2.11.

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This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.

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In the past few years, prompted by the globalization and the quality and ease of travel, the world has witnessed a boom in the tourism sector. The forecast is that this tendency will continue in the upcoming years, representing a set of opportunities for companies operating in this business area. Boost Tourism operates in the tourism entertainment industry. Its revenues growth has been exponential so the founders decided that it was time to take it to new heights. This Work Project aims to study three alternative growth strategies and, based on a comprehensive analysis of the industry and the market, provide recommendations to outline the optimal expansion path.

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The objective of the work presented in this thesis was the development of an innovative approach for the separation of enantiomers of secondary alcohols, combining the use of an ionic liquid (IL) - both as solvent for conducting enzymatic kinetic resolution and as acylating agent - with the use of carbon dioxide (CO2) as solvent for extraction. Menthol was selected for testing this reaction/separation approach due to the increasing demand for this substance, which is widely used in the pharmaceutical, cosmetics and food industries. With a view to using an ionic ester as acylating agent, whose conversion led to the release of ethanol, and due to the need to remove this alcohol so as to drive reaction equilibrium forward, a phase equilibrium study was conducted for the ehtanol/(±)-menthol/CO2 system, at pressures between 8 and 10 MPa and temperatures between 40 and 50 oC. It was found that CO2 is more selective towards ethanol, especially at the lowest pressure and highest temperature tested, leading to separation factors in the range 1.6-7.6. The pressure-temperature-composition data obtained were correlated with the Peng-Robinson equation of state and the Mathias-Klotz-Prausnitz mixing rule. The model fit the experimental results well, with an average absolute deviation (AAD) of 3.7 %. The resolution of racemic menthol was studied using two lipases, namely lipase from Candida rugosa (CRL) and immobilized lipase B from Candida antarctica (CALB), and two ionic acylating esters. No reaction was detected in either case. (R,S)-1-phenylethanol was used next, and it was found that with CRL low, nonselective, conversion of the alcohol took place, whereas CALB led to an enantiomeric excess (ee) of the substrate of 95%, at 30% conversion. Other acylating agents were tested for the resolution of (±)-menthol, namely vinyl esters and acid anhydrides, using several lipases and varying other parameters that affect conversion and enantioselectivity, such as substrate concentration, solvent and temperature. One such acylating agent was propionic anhydride. It was thus performed a phase equilibrium study on the propionic anhydride/CO2 system, at temperatures between 35 and 50 oC. This study revealed that, at 35 oC and pressures from 7 MPa, the system is monophasic for all compositions. The enzymatic catalysis studies carried out with propionic anhydride revealed that the extent of noncatalyzed reaction was high, with a negative effect on enantioselectivity. These studies showed also that it was possible to reduce considerably the impact of the noncatalyzed reaction relative to the reaction catalyzed by CRL by lowering temperature to 4 oC. Vinyl decanoate was shown to lead to the best results at conditions amenable to a process combining the use of supercritical CO2 as agent for post-reaction separation. The use of vinyl decanoate in a number of IL solvents, namely [bmim][PF6], [bmim][BF4], [hmim][PF6], [omim][PF6], and [bmim][Tf2N], led to an enantiomeric excess of product (eep) values of over 96%, at about 50% conversion, using CRL. In n-hexane and supercritical CO2, reaction progressed more slowly.(...)

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Having registered negative retail value growth of 4% in Portugal in 2014, the juice category is set to decline further by 5,5% until 2019. Manufacturers of juices and nectars are therefore increasingly looking for new categories in order to balance this negative forecast in their home territory. One apparent growth opportunity for Compal, the leading producer of juices and nectars, is to expand its commercial reach to new occasions of consumption. This report carefully analyzes the opportunities related to an expansion to the main meal occasion and introduces a complete marketing and communications plan for a possible new main meal juice, Compal à Mesa. The product concept represents a rather premium positioning for the main meal occasion, including new flavor mixes that are targeted at different occasions of meals. The justification of the introduced concept includes a discussion of the primary and secondary research that was performed