Parameter estimation in the presence of auxiliary information

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutora em Estatística e Gestão de Risco, Especialidade em Estatística

Hospital-acquired infections: a cost estimation for CLABSI in Portugal

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Héraldique des sceaux du clergé séculier portugais au Moyen Âge

Ce n’est que dans les dernières années que l’héraldique au Portugal a entamé le processus de rénovation qui, en France, a commencé il y a déjà quelques décennies. Dans ce processus, l’étude de l’héraldique médiévale a été peu contemplé, restant pratiquement à faire, en bonne partir dû à l’absence d’armoriaux antérieurs au XVe siècle qui permettent de connaître les armes utilisées par les familles et les diverses entités portugaises. Pour cette raison, les sceaux portant des représentations héraldiques ont une importance extrême, car ils constituent très fréquemment la seule source pour l’étude des armoiries, ayant en plus l’avantage d’être datés avec précision et liées à des personnages ou entités qui sont connues. Cependant, la sigillographie portugaise se trouve aussi dans une phase de son évolution qui, n’étant plus embryonnaire, est encore une phase de formation. Il nous manque des catalogues, des dépouillages systématiques, des études approfondies qui permettent aux héraldistes de faire leurs recherches. C’est dans ce contexte qui est née ce partenariat entre deux médiévalistes très intéressés à la sigillographie et un spécialiste d’héraldique, qui ensemble ont décidé d’entamer l’étude des origines des représentations héraldiques dans les sceaux portugais, en commençant par les sceaux du clergé séculier, qui constitue le sujet par excellence de la recherche des deux historiens. Dans ce vaste univers sigillaire, qui concerne des personnes d’une grande variété d’origines sociales, y compris la noblesse et la riche bourgeoisie urbaine, les éléments héraldiques semblent avoir émergé seulement à partir de la fin du XIIIe siècle, et d’une façon timide. Le XIVe siècle assiste à sa diffusion dans les sceaux d’évêques, dignités et chanoines, mais ce n’est qu’au XVe siècle que l’héraldique s’impose, gagnant même une place primordiale dans quelques représentations sigillographiques. Le but de cette communication sera donc l’analyse du processus d’héraldisation des sceaux du clergé séculier portugais, entre les dernières décennies du XIIIe et le XVe siècle, pour évaluer comme s’est procédé, dans le cas portugais, le phénomène d’«acculturation héraldique» de l’emblématique épiscopale et cléricale.

Rites, cultes et Rituels ; de l’Antiquité jusqu’à aujourd’hui. Considérations et réflexions sur le déroulement, la valeur et l’importance religieuse, sociale et anthropologique des rites et des cultes de l’Antiquité Grecque et Romaine jusqu’à la naissance du Christianisme et à la société moderne.

En lisant cet extrait de journal qui ouvre le livre « Le Sacrifice humain en Grèce ancienne » de Pierre Bonnechère, on peut se rendre compte que l’homme a toujours éprouvé, face au sacrifice humain, une sorte de mélange entre horreur, mystère et attraction, une « fascination étrange » 1 qui a amené les intellectuels, les écrivains et les artistes du monde entier à chercher à comprendre comment et pourquoi, hier comme aujourd’hui, le sacrifice humain continue à être une composante des pratiques rituelles des différents cultes, religieux ou pas, puisqu’il existe toujours des réminiscences de ces pratiques.

Evaluation of uv spectrophotometry for estimation of nitrite and nitrate in nitrified urine

Water is a limited resource for which demand is growing. Contaminated water from inadequate wastewater treatment provides one of the greatest health challenges as it restricts development and increases poverty in emerging and developing countries. Therefore, the connection between wastewater and human health is linked to access to sanitation and to human waste disposal. Adequate sanitation is expected to create a barrier between disposed human excreta and sources of drinking water. Different approaches to wastewater management are required for different geographical regions and different stages of economic governance depending on the capacity to manage wastewater. Effective wastewater management can contribute to overcome the challenges of water scarcity. Separate collection of human urine at its source is one promising approach that strongly reduces the economic and load demands on wastewater treatment plants (WWTP). Treatment of source-separated urine appears as a sanitation system that is affordable, produces a valuable fertiliser, reduces pollution of water resources and promotes health. However, the technical realisation of urine separation still faces challenges. Biological hydrolysis of urea causes a strong increase of ammonia and pH. Under these conditions ammonia volatilises which can cause odour problems and significant nitrogen losses. The above problems can be avoided by urine stabilisation. Biological nitrification is a suitable process for stabilisation of urine. Urine is a highly concentrated nutrient solution which can lead to strong inhibition effects during bacterial nitrification. This can further lead to process instabilities. The major cause of instability is accumulation of the inhibitory intermediate compound nitrite, which could lead to process breakdown. Enhanced on-line nitrite monitoring can be applied in biological source-separated urine nitrification reactors as a sustainable and efficient way to improve the reactor performance, avoiding reactor failures and eventual loss of biological activity. Spectrophotometry appears as a promising candidate for the development and application of on-line nitrite monitoring. Spectroscopic methods together with chemometrics are presented in this work as a powerful tool for estimation of nitrite concentrations. Principal component regression (PCR) is applied for the estimation of nitrite concentrations using an immersible UV sensor and off-line spectra acquisition. The effect of particles and the effect of saturation, respectively, on the UV absorbance spectra are investigated. The analysis allows to conclude that (i) saturation has a substantial effect on nitrite estimation; (ii) particles appear to have less impact on nitrite estimation. In addition, improper mixing together with instabilities in the urine nitrification process appears to significantly reduce the performance of the estimation model.

La Réforme des soins en santé mentale en Belgique: analyse d'un modéle

RESUMO: O relatório anual de 2001 da Organização Mundial de Saúde (OMS), anunciou o interesse social dos problemas crescentes em matéria de saúde mental e relativo à necessidade urgente de uma extensão, como também, para uma melhor organização da oferta de tratamento. Sob proposta da Bélgica, esta observação foi traduzida em uma resolução « Mental health :responding to the call for action » (déclaração de intenção do 18 de maio de 2002). Nós notamos que certos países, como os Estados Unidos ou a Grã Bretanha transformam sistematicamente o tratamento residencial em um tratamento mais dirigido para a comunidade. Eles também se concentram na descoberta prematura dos problemas psiquiátricos. Este fenômeno de désinstitutionalisação obteve resultados concretos e traz um ganho certo, tanto para os atores do campo da saúde mental, como também para os candidatos a um tratamento. O tratamento das pessoas dentro do seu meio de vida é muito claramente reconhecido. As evoluções que marcaram os tratamentos em saúde mental na Bélgica durante estes utimos 40 anos mostram que vários paços importantes já foram feitos. A reforma tem como objetivo converter a oferta hospitalar e montar tratamentos dirigidos para e dentro da comunidade pela criação de equipas móveis que se inscrevem no dispositivo comunitário, historicamente muito activo bem que sub-financiado. A reorganização dos sistemas de tratamento está baseada na criação de redes, para construir um dispositivo flexível e contínuo que considera as necessidades dos pacientes. Esta reforma é, ao mesmo tempo, ambiciosa e complexa,. É uma visão nova, uma mudança de cultura, não só, para todos os atores da saúde mental, mas também para os pacientes e suas famílias. A reforma está baseada numa visão global e integrada que associa no mesmo movimento todas as autoridades competentes relativamente a saúde que elas sejam federais, regionais ou comunitárias.-----------ABSTRACT: The World Health Organization’s (WHO) annual report of 2001 identified a social interest for the increasing problems related to mental health and the urgent need of an extension and a better organization of mental health care. On a proposal of Belgium this statement was transformed into a resolution « Mental health: responding to the call for action» (Declaration of Intent, May 18th, 2002). Some countries such as the USA or the UK systematically dismantled in-patient residential care in favor of more community-based care and a focus on early detection of psychiatric problems. This de -institutionalization has clearly and concretely paid off and the value of bringing mental health care to claimants and treating them in their own residence was acknowledged. In Belgium, the evolutions which have shaped mental health care in the last forty years indicate that a number of important steps are already taken. The Reform aims to convert the supply of hospital care into community-based mental health care services through the creation of mobile teams which offer services in everyday life of the user. These teams take place in the community, historically highly active howbeit underfunded. The reorganization of health care system relies upon the creation of networks in order to build a flexible and continuous device which take into account user’s needs. This Reform can be seen as both ambitious and complex. It is a completely new vision, a major cultural shift for all mental health care stakeholders, but also for users and their relatives. The Reform is based on a global and integrated approach which links I, a same movement all relevant health authorities whether they be federal, regional or community. de-institutionalization – community mental health – recovery - users and families involvement - networking.

BÉRIOU, Nicole, JOSSERAND, Philippe (coord.), Prier et Combattre – Dictionnaire européen des ordres militaires au Moyen Âge, Fayard, 2009

Medievalista [Em linha]. Nº10, (Julho 2011). Direc. José Mattoso. Lisboa: IEM.

Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

Les systèmes politico-constitutionnels des États Africains de Langue Portugaise

In, Révue Française de Droit Constitutionnel, nº 73, Janvier 2008

La Déclaration Universelle des Droits de l’Homme et la Constitution Portugaise

In, Révue Européenne de Droit Public, vol. 9, nº 4, Atenas, Inverno 1997

EDP - A new estimation algorithm

The aim of this work project is to analyze the current algorithm used by EDP to estimate their clients’ electrical energy consumptions, create a new algorithm and compare the advantages and disadvantages of both. This new algorithm is different from the current one as it incorporates some effects from temperature variations. The results of the comparison show that this new algorithm with temperature variables performed better than the same algorithm without temperature variables, although there is still potential for further improvements of the current algorithm, if the prediction model is estimated using a sample of daily data, which is the case of the current EDP algorithm.

Retour à la maison des Nymphes de Néapolis

On connaît aujourd’hui de nombreux ensembles décoratifs de l’Occident romain appartenant aux dernières décennies du IVe ou aux premières du Ve siècle, où toutes les références symboliques et culturelles se rapportent à des référents classiques, sans aucune trace de références chrétiennes. On peut citer les exemples africains de Sidi Ghrib ou de la maison aux Chevaux de Carthage, le fameux cas sicilien de la Villa du Casale à Piazza Armerina ou, en Espagne, ceux de la Villa de Carranque ou de Baños de Valdearados. Pour prendre des exemples lusitaniens, on peut penser à la maison des Sept Sages de Mérida, ou encore au fascinant complexe de Milreu. La maison des Nymphes de Nabeul est un cas d’école dans ce domaine.

Des histories de famille. La dévotion aux Trois Maries en France du XIVe au XVe siècle. Textes et images

La légende des Trois Maries, les demi-soeurs nées du trinubium de sainte Anne, fut largement diffusée à partir du XIIIe siècle par la Légende dorée de Jacques de Voragine. L’émergence précoce du culte et de l’iconographie des Trois Maries à Paris, à partir du milieux du XIVe siècle, a été favorisée par la rencontre entre un miracle de guérison, en ordre religieux: les Carmes, en quête de légitimation et une reine de France: Jeanne d’Evreux, dont la descendance fut exclue de la succession au trône. L’iconographie des Trois Maries, dont Jean Venette, auteur carme, raconta l’histoire dans un long récit versifi é, est attestée dans les manuscrits et sur d’autres supports.

Genetic algorithm for shipping route estimation with long-range tracking data : automatic reconstruction of shipping routes based on the historical ship positions for maritime safety applications

Ship tracking systems allow Maritime Organizations that are concerned with the Safety at Sea to obtain information on the current location and route of merchant vessels. Thanks to Space technology in recent years the geographical coverage of the ship tracking platforms has increased significantly, from radar based near-shore traffic monitoring towards a worldwide picture of the maritime traffic situation. The long-range tracking systems currently in operations allow the storage of ship position data over many years: a valuable source of knowledge about the shipping routes between different ocean regions. The outcome of this Master project is a software prototype for the estimation of the most operated shipping route between any two geographical locations. The analysis is based on the historical ship positions acquired with long-range tracking systems. The proposed approach makes use of a Genetic Algorithm applied on a training set of relevant ship positions extracted from the long-term storage tracking database of the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA). The analysis of some representative shipping routes is presented and the quality of the results and their operational applications are assessed by a Maritime Safety expert.