BIM-lean synergies in the management on MEP works in public facilities of intensive use – a case study

21st Annual Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction – IGLC 21 – Fortaleza, Brazil

Time series morphological analysis applied to biomedical signals events detection

Dissertation submitted in the fufillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master in Biomedical Engineering

Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

Structural time series models and the Kalman filter: A concise review

The continued increase in availability of economic data in recent years and, more importantly, the possibility to construct larger frequency time series, have fostered the use (and development) of statistical and econometric techniques to treat them more accurately. This paper presents an exposition of structural time series models by which a time series can be decomposed as the sum of a trend, seasonal and irregular components. In addition to a detailled analysis of univariate speci fications we also address the SUTSE multivariate case and the issue of cointegration. Finally, the recursive estimation and smoothing by means of the Kalman filter algorithm is described taking into account its different stages, from initialisation to parameter s estimation.

Cost efficiency in the Portuguese water sector: The case of multimunicipal systems operating at the bulk level

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

A distributed platform for the volunteer execution of workflows on a local area network

Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Computer Science

Resilience of logistic service providers facing a port strike: a case study

The purpose of this thesis is to study the impact of a port strike on companies that perform as logistic service providers in a supply chain (SC), here denominated 3PL (third-party logistic providers). These companies are highly dependent on ports to perform their activity, since they provide international services. Consequently, a disruption in a port can seriously impair their business. A stevedores’ strike is one of the possible disruptions that can affect ports. This study aims to analyze the negative effects caused by this disruption, and what strategies 3PLs may implement in order to keep their performance levels stable and have a quick recovery time. Within this objective, the first step will be to establish a theoretical context about the maritime port’s sector and 3PLs in a SC context, to then expand the concept of a resilient SC, and finally to develop a theoretical framework in order to better contextualize the case study. Subsequently, the impact of a port strike will be quantified by using a case study comprising three companies, covering the areas of land and sea distribution and port operations. Information from primary sources was assembled in two phases: first via e-mail and, in a second phase, through a personal interview. The information from secondary sources was obtained through television news, internet and conferences, enabling its cross-analysis. Finally, by analyzing the collected data, it will be possible to draw conclusions about the measures carried out by each company to minimize the negative effects of the strike, thus contributing to a more resilient SC. As a conclusion, a stevedores’ strike will create a snow-ball of negative effects in the SC, degrading all relevant KPIs (key performance indicators) of the 3PLs under study. No mitigation and contingency strategies available proved really effective to reduce the negative effects of a port strike disruption.

Development of an integrative approach for the characterization of ecological risk on marine transition ecosystems: the Sado Estuary as a case study

Estuaries and other transitional waters are complex ecosystems critically important as nursery and shelter areas for organisms. Also, humans depend on estuaries for multiple socio-economical activities such as urbanism, tourism, heavy industry, (taking advantage of shipping), fisheries and aquaculture, the development of which led to strong historical pressures, with emphasis on pollution. The degradation of estuarine environmental quality implies ecologic, economic and social prejudice, hence the importance of evaluating environmental quality through the identification of stressors and impacts. The Sado Estuary (SW Portugal) holds the characteristics of industrialized estuaries, which results in multiple adverse impacts. Still, it has recently been considered moderately contaminated. In fact, many studies were conducted in the past few years, albeit scattered due to the absence of true biomonitoring programmes. As such, there is a need to integrate the information, in order to obtain a holistic perspective of the area able to assist management and decision-making. As such, a geographical information system (GIS) was created based on sediment contamination and biomarker data collected from a decade-long time-series of publications. Four impacted and a reference areas were identified, characterized by distinct sediment contamination patterns related to different hot spots and diffuse sources of toxicants. The potential risk of sediment-bound toxicants was determined by contrasting the levels of pollutants with available sediment quality guidelines, followed by their integration through the Sediment Quality guideline Quotient (SQG-Q). The SQG-Q estimates per toxicant or class was then subjected to georreferencing and statistical analyses between the five distinct areas and seasons. Biomarker responses were integrated through the Biomarkers Consistency Indice and georreferenced as well through GIS. Overall, in spite of the multiple biological traits surveyed, the biomarker data (from several organisms) are accordant with sediment contamination. The most impacted areas were the shipyard area and adjacent industrial belt, followed by urban and agricultural grounds. It is evident that the estuary, although globally moderately impacted, is very heterogeneous and affected by a cocktail of contaminants, especially metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Although elements (like copper, zinc and even arsenic) may originate from the geology of the hydrographic basin of the Sado River, the majority of the remaining contaminants results from human activities. The present work revealed that the estuary should be divided into distinct biogeographic units, in order to implement effective measures to safeguard environmental quality.

Analysis of temporal and spatial variations of forest. A case of study in notheastern Armenia

The forest has a crucial ecological role and the continuous forest loss can cause colossal effects on the environment. As Armenia is one of the low forest covered countries in the world, this problem is more critical. Continuous forest disturbances mainly caused by illegal logging started from the early 1990s had a huge damage on the forest ecosystem by decreasing the forest productivity and making more areas vulnerable to erosion. Another aspect of the Armenian forest is the lack of continuous monitoring and absence of accurate estimation of the level of cuts in some years. In order to have insight about the forest and the disturbances in the long period of time we used Landsat TM/ETM + images. Google Earth Engine JavaScript API was used, which is an online tool enabling the access and analysis of a great amount of satellite imagery. To overcome the data availability problem caused by the gap in the Landsat series in 1988- 1998, extensive cloud cover in the study area and the missing scan lines, we used pixel based compositing for the temporal window of leaf on vegetation (June-late September). Subsequently, pixel based linear regression analyses were performed. Vegetation indices derived from the 10 biannual composites for the years 1984-2014 were used for trend analysis. In order to derive the disturbances only in forests, forest cover layer was aggregated and the original composites were masked. It has been found, that around 23% of forests were disturbed during the study period.

Optimal choice between even- and uneven-aged forestry: the case of non-industrial private forest owners

An infinite-horizon discrete time model with multiple size-class structures using a transition matrix is built to assess optimal harvesting schedules in the context of Non-Industrial Private Forest (NIPF) owners. Three model specifications accounting for forest income, financial return on an asset and amenity valuations are considered. Numerical simulations suggest uneven-aged forest management where a rational forest owner adapts her or his forest policy by influencing the regeneration of trees or adjusting consumption dynamics depending on subjective time preference and market return rate dynamics on the financial asset. Moreover she or he does not value significantly non-market benefits captured by amenity valuations relatively to forest income.

Flood resilient housing recovery models: a theoretical case study in Maldives

Natural disasters are events that cause general and widespread destruction of the built environment and are becoming increasingly recurrent. They are a product of vulnerability and community exposure to natural hazards, generating a multitude of social, economic and cultural issues of which the loss of housing and the subsequent need for shelter is one of its major consequences. Nowadays, numerous factors contribute to increased vulnerability and exposure to natural disasters such as climate change with its impacts felt across the globe and which is currently seen as a worldwide threat to the built environment. The abandonment of disaster-affected areas can also push populations to regions where natural hazards are felt more severely. Although several actors in the post-disaster scenario provide for shelter needs and recovery programs, housing is often inadequate and unable to resist the effects of future natural hazards. Resilient housing is commonly not addressed due to the urgency in sheltering affected populations. However, by neglecting risks of exposure in construction, houses become vulnerable and are likely to be damaged or destroyed in future natural hazard events. That being said it becomes fundamental to include resilience criteria, when it comes to housing, which in turn will allow new houses to better withstand the passage of time and natural disasters, in the safest way possible. This master thesis is intended to provide guiding principles to take towards housing recovery after natural disasters, particularly in the form of flood resilient construction, considering floods are responsible for the largest number of natural disasters. To this purpose, the main structures that house affected populations were identified and analyzed in depth. After assessing the risks and damages that flood events can cause in housing, a methodology was proposed for flood resilient housing models, in which there were identified key criteria that housing should meet. The same methodology is based in the US Federal Emergency Management Agency requirements and recommendations in accordance to specific flood zones. Finally, a case study in Maldives – one of the most vulnerable countries to sea level rise resulting from climate change – has been analyzed in light of housing recovery in a post-disaster induced scenario. This analysis was carried out by using the proposed methodology with the intent of assessing the resilience of the newly built housing to floods in the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami.

The use of technology in Portuguese hospitals- The case of MRI

We study the determinants of MRI use across Portuguese NHS hospitals for patients belonging to specific DRGs. Using data on individual hospital admissions, we estimate a probit model including individual-, hospital-, time- and region-specific variables in order to explain the probability of a patient being sent for MRI. Results convey a tightening effect on the hospital’s budget constraint in the end of each year. Hospitals seem to account for regional characteristics when defining adoption patterns. Individual-specific variables are good predictors of MRI use. Measures taken by the Government only impact the short run. Finally, the gains from an MRI scan, as far as the probability of death is concerned, occur mainly for less severe patients.

How to engage low category users through social media- The case of the make-up sector in Portugal

Purpose: This work project should be inevitably deemed as a practical approach to a marketing problem; “How to engage low category users through the social media – the case of the make-up sector in Portugal”. Design/methodology/approach: Online structured questionnaires and in-depth interviews were used. The questionnaire was answered by 110 women aged from 15 to 45 years old and the interviews were conducted with 14 women of the same age. The interviews provided key insights for the questionnaire formulation. Findings: Women are poorly informed on make-up properties and characteristics, feeling a genuine concern in regard to this subject. Lack of time, occasional usage and skin damage are the main barriers for make-up usage by low category users. Overcoming these aspects pass by demystifying the association of make-up with skin damage and emphasise the functional and emotional benefits of make-up. Further, brands need to create contents more consumer-oriented and ask directly to fans/followers suggestions and other insights. Resort to Portuguese “common” women for greater empathy in campaigns, promote online meetings between followers and make-up professionals on social media; and finally take advantage of the hybrid condition of Facebook, which incorporates multiple forms of content presentation, including videos, the most appealing format of make-up presentation for women. Research limitations/implications: Further studies addressing this topic, by using larger samples and study of specific make-up brands and campaign programs, over social media to reach a solid growth potential of make-up market evidences in Portugal. Originality/ value: Make-up brands are emphasising their interest in linking social media and marketing their promotional mix around social marketing.

The effectiveness of supply chain management on firm's performance: A comparative case study

The purpose of the paper is to investigate the effectiveness of supply chain management (SCM) practices to increase a company’s performance based on a cross-border and cross-sector analysis. The paper follows a comparative case study approach which was achieved by interviewing supply chain management experts of three companies operating in different industries and positions in a supply chain. Practices that were mutually applied by the firms and their contribution to achieve quality, economic, cost, and time advantages were analyzed. The paper revealed practices, which contribute the most to increase specific performance areas.

Logoplaste: Conquering the world one bottle at a time

The “Logoplaste: Conquering the world one bottle at a time” case is based on the real story of the Botton family and their journey to build the globally known company Logoplaste. Famous for its “hole in the wall” strategy within the plastics industry, Logoplaste is not only one of the major plastic bottles manufacturers in the world, but also a company which has been proving us that a shared leadership system can be successful within a family business. This case intendeds to demonstrate the dynamics of a family business, illustrating the complexity of the decision making process and how they have successfully mastered dual management in a family firm. Moreover, it also aims to demonstrate that a family firm can be managed in such way that sustainable growth, as a key pillar, can be enabled through a strong focus on internationalization and innovation. A teaching note is available at the end of the case in order to guide students and teachers in their readings. Discussions questions, for debate in class environment, are also provided together with suggested answers drawn together to increase the critical sense and theoretical application of the themes studied in class.