56 resultados para True Time


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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica

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The continued increase in availability of economic data in recent years and, more importantly, the possibility to construct larger frequency time series, have fostered the use (and development) of statistical and econometric techniques to treat them more accurately. This paper presents an exposition of structural time series models by which a time series can be decomposed as the sum of a trend, seasonal and irregular components. In addition to a detailled analysis of univariate speci fications we also address the SUTSE multivariate case and the issue of cointegration. Finally, the recursive estimation and smoothing by means of the Kalman filter algorithm is described taking into account its different stages, from initialisation to parameter s estimation.

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This paper incorporates egocentric comparisons into a human capital accumulation model and studies the evolution of positive self image over time. The paper shows that the process of human capital accumulation together with egocentric comparisons imply that positive self image of a cohort is first increasing and then decreasing over time. Additionally, the paper finds that positive self image: (1) peaks earlier in activities where skill depreciation is higher, (2) is smaller in activities where the distribution of income is more dispersed, (3) is not a stable characteristic of an individual, and (4) is higher for more patient individuals.

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Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Logica Computicional

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Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

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RESUMO: Introdução: A hipótese colocada nesta tese é a de que poderia haver um número bastante mais elevado de ensaios clínicos na medicina familiar portuguesa se os obstáculos fossem removidos e as oportunidades exploradas de modo adequado. Contexto: Em Portugal existe uma nova geração de Médicos de Família que está a assumir postos de trabalho um pouco por todo o país e que é aceite como sendo a mais bem preparada geração de sempre. Métodos: Busca na MEDLINE. Leitura de artigos na única publicação científica dedicada à Medicina Geral e Familiar – RPMGF. Consulta em livros portugueses de política da saúde e acerca do Plano Nacional de Saúde. O INFARMED foi contactado e relatórios seus sobre ensaios clínicos foram analisados. Os Médicos de Família portugueses foram contactados e convidados a responder a questionários. Além disso, quinze personalidades da Medicina Portuguesa foram chamadas a sugerir soluções. Resultados: De acordo com dados do INFARMED, de 2006 a 2011 houve apenas quatro centros de saúde envolvidos em ensaios clínicos. Em Portugal: Existe um número pouco significativo de ensaios académicos; Praticamente não há infraestruturas de suporte ou treino; Os registos clínicos eletrónicos são usados de forma ineficiente; a investigação é fracamente ligada às carreiras médicas; há isolamento interno e externo; a já complexa regulamentação da União Europeia é complicada ainda mais; há um subfinanciamento da Investigação Clínica. Os Médicos de Família portugueses estão disponíveis para participar ativamente numa mudança. Discussão: Com os presentes resultados o diagnóstico para a presente situação é claramente negativo. Felizmente existem muito boas oportunidades para melhorar. Conclusão/Recomendações: Tempo, dinheiro e apoio têm de ser fornecidos aos Médicos de Família portugueses. É nesse sentido que são fornecidas vinte recomendações para obter uma verdadeira mudança no panorama dos Ensaios Clínicos na Medicina Familiar portuguesa.-------------ABSTRACT: Introduction: The hypothesis of this thesis is that there could be a much greater number of Clinical Trials in Portuguese Family Medicine if obstacles were removed and opportunities explored properly. Background: In Portugal there is a new generation of Family Doctors that is assuming permanent positions all over the country and is accepted to be the most well prepared generation ever. Methods: Search on MEDLINE. Relevant articles were also identified in the only jornal dedicated to Portuguese Family Medicine, RPMGF. A search was made on Portuguese health policy textbooks and national health plan policy. INFARMED was also contacted and their reports about Clinical Trials were analysed. Portuguese Family Doctors themselves were contacted and invited to answer questionnaires. Besides that, fifteen key opinion leaders related to Portuguese Medicine were approached for solutions. Results: According to INFARMED data, from 2006 to 2011 there were only four health centres involved in clinical trials. In Portugal there is: A negligible number of academic trials; almost no support infrastructures or training; inefficiently used electronic health records; a research weakly linked to medical careers; an uninformed isolation internally and externally; an already complex European Union regulation that is compounded even more; Scarce funding for clinical research. Portuguese Family Doctors are keen to actively participate in a change. Discussion: With the present results the diagnosis for the current situation is clearly negative. Fortunately there are very good opportunities to improve. Conclusion/Recommendations: Time, money and support must be given to Portuguese Family Doctors. In this context, twenty recommendations are provided intending to promote a true change in Portuguese Family Medicine Clinical Trials panorama.

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Estuaries and other transitional waters are complex ecosystems critically important as nursery and shelter areas for organisms. Also, humans depend on estuaries for multiple socio-economical activities such as urbanism, tourism, heavy industry, (taking advantage of shipping), fisheries and aquaculture, the development of which led to strong historical pressures, with emphasis on pollution. The degradation of estuarine environmental quality implies ecologic, economic and social prejudice, hence the importance of evaluating environmental quality through the identification of stressors and impacts. The Sado Estuary (SW Portugal) holds the characteristics of industrialized estuaries, which results in multiple adverse impacts. Still, it has recently been considered moderately contaminated. In fact, many studies were conducted in the past few years, albeit scattered due to the absence of true biomonitoring programmes. As such, there is a need to integrate the information, in order to obtain a holistic perspective of the area able to assist management and decision-making. As such, a geographical information system (GIS) was created based on sediment contamination and biomarker data collected from a decade-long time-series of publications. Four impacted and a reference areas were identified, characterized by distinct sediment contamination patterns related to different hot spots and diffuse sources of toxicants. The potential risk of sediment-bound toxicants was determined by contrasting the levels of pollutants with available sediment quality guidelines, followed by their integration through the Sediment Quality guideline Quotient (SQG-Q). The SQG-Q estimates per toxicant or class was then subjected to georreferencing and statistical analyses between the five distinct areas and seasons. Biomarker responses were integrated through the Biomarkers Consistency Indice and georreferenced as well through GIS. Overall, in spite of the multiple biological traits surveyed, the biomarker data (from several organisms) are accordant with sediment contamination. The most impacted areas were the shipyard area and adjacent industrial belt, followed by urban and agricultural grounds. It is evident that the estuary, although globally moderately impacted, is very heterogeneous and affected by a cocktail of contaminants, especially metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Although elements (like copper, zinc and even arsenic) may originate from the geology of the hydrographic basin of the Sado River, the majority of the remaining contaminants results from human activities. The present work revealed that the estuary should be divided into distinct biogeographic units, in order to implement effective measures to safeguard environmental quality.

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The term res publica (literally “thing of the people”) was coined by the Romans to translate the Greek word politeia, which, as we know, referred to a political community organised in accordance with certain principles, amongst which the notion of the “good life” (as against exclusively private interests) was paramount. This ideal also came to be known as political virtue. To achieve it, it was necessary to combine the best of each “constitutional” type and avoid their worst aspects (tyranny, oligarchy and ochlocracy). Hence, the term acquired from the Greeks a sense of being a “mixed” and “balanced” system. Anyone that was entitled to citizenship could participate in the governance of the “public thing”. This implied the institutionalization of open debate and confrontation between interested parties as a way of achieving the consensus necessary to ensure that man the political animal, who fought with words and reason, prevailed over his “natural” counterpart. These premises lie at the heart of the project which is now being presented under the title of Res Publica: Citizenship and Political Representation in Portugal, 1820-1926. The fact that it is integrated into the centenary commemorations of the establishment of the Republic in Portugal is significant, as it was the idea of revolution – with its promise of rupture and change – that inspired it. However, it has also sought to explore events that could be considered the precursor of democratization in the history of Portugal, namely the vintista, setembrista and patuleia revolutions. It is true that the republican regime was opposed to the monarchic. However, although the thesis that monarchy would inevitably lead to tyranny had held sway for centuries, it had also been long believed that the monarchic system could be as “politically virtuous” as a republic (in the strict sense of the word) provided that power was not concentrated in the hands of a single individual. Moreover, various historical experiments had shown that republics could also degenerate into Caesarism and different kinds of despotism. Thus, when absolutism began to be overturned in continental Europe in the name of the natural rights of man and the new social pact theories, initiating the difficult process of (written) constitutionalization, the monarchic principle began to be qualified as a “monarchy hedged by republican institutions”, a situation in which not even the king was exempt from isonomy. This context justifies the time frame chosen here, as it captures the various changes and continuities that run through it. Having rejected the imperative mandate and the reinstatement of the model of corporative representation (which did not mean that, in new contexts, this might not be revived, or that the second chamber established by the Constitutional Charter of 1826 might not be given another lease of life), a new power base was convened: national sovereignty, a precept that would be shared by the monarchic constitutions of 1822 and 1838, and by the republican one of 1911. This followed the French example (manifested in the monarchic constitution of 1791 and in the Spanish constitution of 1812), as not even republicans entertained a tradition of republicanism based upon popular sovereignty. This enables us to better understand the rejection of direct democracy and universal suffrage, and also the long incapacitation (concerning voting and standing for office) of the vast body of “passive” citizens, justified by “enlightened”, property- and gender-based criteria. Although the republicans had promised in the propaganda phase to alter this situation, they ultimately failed to do so. Indeed, throughout the whole period under analysis, the realisation of the potential of national sovereignty was mediated above all by the individual citizen through his choice of representatives. However, this representation was indirect and took place at national level, in the hope that action would be motivated not by particular local interests but by the common good, as dictated by reason. This was considered the only way for the law to be virtuous, a requirement that was also manifested in the separation and balance of powers. As sovereignty was postulated as single and indivisible, so would be the nation that gave it soul and the State that embodied it. Although these characteristics were common to foreign paradigms of reference, in Portugal, the constitutionalization process also sought to nationalise the idea of Empire. Indeed, this had been the overriding purpose of the 1822 Constitution, and it persisted, even after the loss of Brazil, until decolonization. Then, the dream of a single nation stretching from the Minho to Timor finally came to an end.

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Human Activity Recognition systems require objective and reliable methods that can be used in the daily routine and must offer consistent results according with the performed activities. These systems are under development and offer objective and personalized support for several applications such as the healthcare area. This thesis aims to create a framework for human activities recognition based on accelerometry signals. Some new features and techniques inspired in the audio recognition methodology are introduced in this work, namely Log Scale Power Bandwidth and the Markov Models application. The Forward Feature Selection was adopted as the feature selection algorithm in order to improve the clustering performances and limit the computational demands. This method selects the most suitable set of features for activities recognition in accelerometry from a 423th dimensional feature vector. Several Machine Learning algorithms were applied to the used accelerometry databases – FCHA and PAMAP databases - and these showed promising results in activities recognition. The developed algorithm set constitutes a mighty contribution for the development of reliable evaluation methods of movement disorders for diagnosis and treatment applications.

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This study analyses financial data using the result characterization of a self-organized neural network model. The goal was prototyping a tool that may help an economist or a market analyst to analyse stock market series. To reach this goal, the tool shows economic dependencies and statistics measures over stock market series. The neural network SOM (self-organizing maps) model was used to ex-tract behavioural patterns of the data analysed. Based on this model, it was de-veloped an application to analyse financial data. This application uses a portfo-lio of correlated markets or inverse-correlated markets as input. After the anal-ysis with SOM, the result is represented by micro clusters that are organized by its behaviour tendency. During the study appeared the need of a better analysis for SOM algo-rithm results. This problem was solved with a cluster solution technique, which groups the micro clusters from SOM U-Matrix analyses. The study showed that the correlation and inverse-correlation markets projects multiple clusters of data. These clusters represent multiple trend states that may be useful for technical professionals.

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The computational power is increasing day by day. Despite that, there are some tasks that are still difficult or even impossible for a computer to perform. For example, while identifying a facial expression is easy for a human, for a computer it is an area in development. To tackle this and similar issues, crowdsourcing has grown as a way to use human computation in a large scale. Crowdsourcing is a novel approach to collect labels in a fast and cheap manner, by sourcing the labels from the crowds. However, these labels lack reliability since annotators are not guaranteed to have any expertise in the field. This fact has led to a new research area where we must create or adapt annotation models to handle these weaklylabeled data. Current techniques explore the annotators’ expertise and the task difficulty as variables that influences labels’ correction. Other specific aspects are also considered by noisy-labels analysis techniques. The main contribution of this thesis is the process to collect reliable crowdsourcing labels for a facial expressions dataset. This process consists in two steps: first, we design our crowdsourcing tasks to collect annotators labels; next, we infer the true label from the collected labels by applying state-of-art crowdsourcing algorithms. At the same time, a facial expression dataset is created, containing 40.000 images and respective labels. At the end, we publish the resulting dataset.

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Real-time collaborative editing systems are common nowadays, and their advantages are widely recognized. Examples of such systems include Google Docs, ShareLaTeX, among others. This thesis aims to adopt this paradigm in a software development environment. The OutSystems visual language lends itself very appropriate to this kind of collaboration, since the visual code enables a natural flow of knowledge between developers regarding the developed code. Furthermore, communication and coordination are simplified. This proposal explores the field of collaboration on a very structured and rigid model, where collaboration is made through the copy-modify-merge paradigm, in which a developer gets its own private copy from the shared repository, modifies it in isolation and later uploads his changes to be merged with modifications concurrently produced by other developers. To this end, we designed and implemented an extension to the OutSystems Platform, in order to enable real-time collaborative editing. The solution guarantees consistency among the artefacts distributed across several developers working on the same project. We believe that it is possible to achieve a much more intense collaboration over the same models with a low negative impact on the individual productivity of each developer.

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Since the invention of photography humans have been using images to capture, store and analyse the act that they are interested in. With the developments in this field, assisted by better computers, it is possible to use image processing technology as an accurate method of analysis and measurement. Image processing's principal qualities are flexibility, adaptability and the ability to easily and quickly process a large amount of information. Successful examples of applications can be seen in several areas of human life, such as biomedical, industry, surveillance, military and mapping. This is so true that there are several Nobel prizes related to imaging. The accurate measurement of deformations, displacements, strain fields and surface defects are challenging in many material tests in Civil Engineering because traditionally these measurements require complex and expensive equipment, plus time consuming calibration. Image processing can be an inexpensive and effective tool for load displacement measurements. Using an adequate image acquisition system and taking advantage of the computation power of modern computers it is possible to accurately measure very small displacements with high precision. On the market there are already several commercial software packages. However they are commercialized at high cost. In this work block-matching algorithms will be used in order to compare the results from image processing with the data obtained with physical transducers during laboratory load tests. In order to test the proposed solutions several load tests were carried out in partnership with researchers from the Civil Engineering Department at Universidade Nova de Lisboa (UNL).

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Despite the growing relevance of co-creating customer communities only little scientific evidence is available on their impact on transactional behavior of participants. Previous research has mostly used self-reported data or distinguished only between during and pre-community phases obtaining mixed results. However, the author proposes that co-creating community activity takes place in five distinguishable phases and changes in transactional behavior are limited to certain phases. Using 33 months of transactional data of a Dutch online auction provider a study was conducted covering all five phases of the community co-creation process from community planning over community set-up, co-development and co-testing to post-launch. The overall results indicate mixed effects of community participation on the different transactional variables during the co-creation process. Community participation had positive effects on auctions listing behavior at the community set-up, co-development and post-launch phases, whereby the number of auctions listed peaked during the community set-up phase. These results suggest that the impact on transactional behavior differs between co-creation phases and different psychological mechanism limited to certain phases might trigger the respective changes.