Produção de eletricidade a partir de energia solar fotovoltaica de larga escala PV e CPV na zona rural do município de Évora: área disponível e potencial técnico

No sentido de diminuir a dependência externa de energia nomeadamente de combustíveis fósseis, combater as alterações climáticas e colmatar o défice potencial de energia associada à dependência de energia hídrica, Portugal necessita aumentar o investimento noutras fontes de energia renovável (FER) para produção de eletricidade, nomeadamente na energia solar. Sendo uma das zonas com maior radiação solar da Europa (1 900 kWh/m2), Portugal não aproveita este recurso como poderia. O presente estudo avalia o potencial técnico de produção de energia solar fotovoltaica centralizado de larga escala (> 1 MW), no Concelho de Évora. Recorrendo ao sistema de informação geográfica ArcGIS, foram estimadas as áreas disponíveis e as áreas úteis potenciais para implementação de projetos de aproveitamento de energia solar fotovoltaica, por forma a calcular o potencial de potência instalada (MW) e de produção de energia elétrica (GWh/ano). Foram considerados diferentes cenários relativos ao uso do solo, no contexto do Plano Diretor Municipal, e ao tipo de projeto, tendo sido consideradas as tecnologias de sistema fotovoltaico sem concentração (PV) e de sistema fotovoltaico concentrado (CPV). No cenário mais restritivo sobre a ocupação do solo foi estimada uma área útil de 4 978 ha (cerca de 4% da área total do Município) que corresponde a um potencial técnico de produção de energia de 2 357 GWh/ano, se se considerar um sistema CPV com 1 MW de potência instalada. Para efeitos de comparação, esta produção corresponde a 9 vezes o valor do consumo de eletricidade anual do Concelho de Évora e a cerca de 5% do consumo anual de eletricidade em Portugal continental em 2012. O potencial muito significativo de produção de eletricidade solar é justificada pela disponibilidade de ocupação do solo, pelo declive suave do terreno e pelo excelente nível de radiação solar incidente. Da análise dos diversos cenários avaliados, concluiu-se que o sistema mais vantajoso, em termos de produção de energia por unidade de área, independentemente do cenário de ocupação do solo, é o sistema CPV de larga escala (20 a 30 MW) que apresenta valores de produção da ordem de 0,64 GWh/ha.

A model to screen and improve business potential of micro and small enterprises in developing countries: Evidence from the Island of Mozambique

Programmes supporting micro and small enterprises in developing countries have been showing that capital is not enough to allow business success: survival and growth. Literature does not provide comprehensive and practical tool to support business development in this context, but allowed the collection of forty-nine success variables that were studied in a sample of successful and unsuccessful businesses in the Island of Mozambique to discover what were the key factors affecting those businesses’ performance. Empirical data gave the insights for the development of a model to screen and improve business potential of micro and small enterprises in this context.

Credit default swap (CDS) prediction model & trading strategy

This project focuses on the study of different explanatory models for the behavior of CDS security, such as Fixed-Effect Model, GLS Random-Effect Model, Pooled OLS and Quantile Regression Model. After determining the best fitness model, trading strategies with long and short positions in CDS have been developed. Due to some specifications of CDS, I conclude that the quantile regression is the most efficient model to estimate the data. The P&L and Sharpe Ratio of the strategy are analyzed using a backtesting analogy, where I conclude that, mainly for non-financial companies, the model allows traders to take advantage of and profit from arbitrages.

Millennium BCP- The almond hill credit extension proposal

This Work Project is a case study on the credit lending process and loan pricing policy of Millennium bcp, one of the main Portuguese banks. The goal of the case study is to provide an opportunity to understand the above mentioned process and policy in a major bank and to explore the issues and interests at play when a relevant credit decision must be taken. I would like to thank Dr. José Miguel Pessanha without whom this project would not have been possible.

The impact of credit conditions on market liquidity – a case for European stock markets

The recent financial crisis has drawn the attention of researchers and regulators to the importance of liquidity for stock market stability and efficiency. The ability of market-makers and investors to provide liquidity is constrained by the willingness of financial institutions to supply funding capital. This paper sheds light on the liquidity linkages between the Central Bank, Monetary Financial Institutions and market-makers as crucial elements to the well-functioning of markets. Results suggest the existence of causality between credit conditions and stock market liquidity for the Eurozone between 2003 and 2015. Similar evidence is found for the UK during the post-crisis period. Keywords: stock

Comparative analysis of Spanish Banks’ Standalone credit profile

The paper studies the relationship between four differently rated bank’s financial profile and their standalone credit rating issued by Moody’s. The comparative analysis shows an example that despite their pricing power and geographical coverage, larger banks do not necessarily have better credit ratings. Instead, business model and risk appetite seem to be the defining factors of banks’ vulnerability to shocks, such as the Spanish real estate crisis. The risk-return relationship is also identified in the banks’ fundamentals meaning that while expansionary strategy in riskier asset classes enhances margins, it also potentially distorts the credit risk profile.

Estudo de caso-controlo da associação entre a infecção por giardia duodenalis e a desnutrição em crianças dos 0 aos 59 meses numa região rural da Guiné-Bissau.

Introdução: As infecções por parasitas intestinais e a desnutrição são um importante problema de saúde infantil, em especial nos países em desenvolvimento, onde coexistem e contribuem para o ciclo da desnutrição-infecção-pobreza. A infecção por Giardia duodenalis e a desnutrição crónica são um exemplo potencial deste ciclo, ainda que poucos estudos tenham sido efectuados sobre a sua associação em África, em especial em crianças de zonas rurais. A problemática em estudo no presente projecto consistiu em explorar a associação entre a infecção por Giardia duodenalis e a desnutrição crónica em crianças com idades entre os 0 e os 59 meses de uma comunidade rural da Guiné-Bissau, habitantes do Parque Nacional das Lagoas da Cufada. Material, População e Métodos: Foi efectuado um estudo de caso-controlo em Março e Abril de 2010, em que os 31 casos correspondem a crianças com desnutrição crónica (zscore estatura para a idade <-2) e os 78 controlos a crianças com estatura adequada para a idade (zscore estatura para a idade> -2). Foi efectuada análise microscópica de amostras de fezes para a detecção de Giardia duodenalis e de outros parasitas intestinais eventualmente presentes. Além da desnutrição crónica, foram igualmente avaliados outros indicadores nutricionais na amostra em estudo, tais como o peso para a idade, peso para o comprimento ou estatura e índice de massa corporal. A exploração da associação entre a desnutrição crónica e a infecção por Giardia duodenalis foi efectuada recorrendo a técnicas estatísticas. Resultados obtidos: A análise microscópica de amostras de fezes colhidas nos meses de Março e Abril de 2010 permitiu obter uma taxa de prevalência de infecção por Giardia duodenalis de 29,0% (9/31) nos casos e de 35,9% (28/78) nos controlos. Não foi encontrada associação entre a infecção por Giardia duodenalis e a desnutrição crónica nas crianças em estudo. Discussão e Conclusões: Os dados obtidos estão de acordo com diversos estudos em que não foi encontrada associação entre a desnutrição crónica e a infecção por Giardia duodenalis. Contudo, dadas as limitações associadas ao número limitado da amostra e ao poder do estudo, bem como a ausência de informação clínica e nutricional, sugerem que, não obstante a validade dos dados obtidos, será importante desenhar futuros estudos.

Exploiting the cointrgration between vix and CDS in a credit market timing model

We investigate the cointegration between VIX and CDS indices, and the possibility of exploiting it in an existing credit market timing investment model. We find cointegration over most of the sample period and the leadership of VIX over the CDS in the price discovery process. We present two methods for including cointegration into the model. Both strategies improve the in-sample and out-of-sample model performances, even though out-of-sample results are weaker. We find that in-sample better performances are explained by a stronger cointegration, concluding that in the presence of cointegration our strategies can be profitable in an investment model that considers transaction costs.

Sustained competitive advantage of different sized multinational corporations in rural base of the pyramid markets

This thesis explores how multinational corporations of different sizes create barriers to imitation and therefore sustain competitive advantage in rural and informal Base of the Pyramid economies. These markets require close cooperation with local partners in a dynamic environment that lacks imposable property rights and follows a different rationale than developed markets. In order to explore how competitive advantage is sustained by different sized multinational corporations at the Base of the Pyramid, the natural-resource-based view and the dynamic capabilities perspective are integrated. Based on this integration the natural-resource-based view is extended by identifying critical dynamic capabilities that are assumed to be sources of competitive advantage at the Base of the Pyramid. Further, a contrasting case study explores how the identified dynamic capabilities are protected and their competitive advantage is sustained by isolating mechanisms that create barriers to imitation for a small to medium sized and a large multinational corporation. The case study results give grounds to assume that most resource-based isolating mechanisms create barriers to imitation that are fairly high for large and established multinational corporations that operate at the rural Base of the Pyramid and have a high product and business model complexity. On the contrary, barriers to imitation were found to be lower for young and small to medium sized multinational corporations with low product and business model complexity that according to some authors represent the majority of rural Base of the Pyramid companies. Particularly for small to medium sized multinational corporations the case study finds a relationship- and transaction-based unwillingness of local partners to act opportunistically rather than a resource-based inability to imitate. By offering an explanation of sustained competitive advantage for small to medium sized multinational corporations at the rural Base of the Pyramid this thesis closes an important research gap and recommends to include institutional and transaction-based research perspectives.

A new credit monitoring framework for agents' networks

The purpose of this work is to develop a practicable approach for Telecom firms to manage the credit risk exposition to their commercial agents’ network. Particularly it will try to approach the problem of credit concession to clients’ from a corporation perspective and explore the particular scenario of agents that are part of the commercial chain of the corporation and therefore are not end-users. The agents’ network that served as a model for the presented study is composed by companies that, at the same time, are both clients and suppliers of the Telecommunication Company. In that sense the credit exposition analysis must took into consideration all financial fluxes, both inbound and outbound. The current strain on the Financial Sector in Portugal, and other peripheral European economies, combined with the high leverage situation of most companies, generates an environment prone to credit default risk. Due to these circumstances managing credit risk exposure is becoming increasingly a critical function for every company Financial Department. The approach designed in the current study combined two traditional risk monitoring tools: credit risk scoring and credit limitation policies. The objective was to design a new credit monitoring framework that is more flexible, uses both external and internal relationship history to assess risk and takes into consideration commercial objectives inside the agents’ network. Although not explored at length, the blueprint of a Credit Governance model was created for implementing the new credit monitoring framework inside the telecom firm. The Telecom Company that served as a model for the present work decided to implement the new Credit Monitoring framework after this was presented to its Executive Commission.