ANA, SA: A risk management approach

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Junk food packaging on healthy food: A matter of children’s perceptions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Credit risk of financial institutions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Corporate social responsibility: How internal and external CSR perceptions influence employee outcomes

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Contributo para a validação da versão portuguesa do instrumento de avaliação VOICE (service users perceptions of impatient care, Views on Inpatient Care)

RESUMO: Nos últimos anos assistiu-se a um reposicionamento das pessoas portadoras de doença mental na sociedade, no sentido de viverem em pleno os seus direitos, sem restrições. Esta tendência acompanhou as transformações que se têm vivido na forma como os utentes dos serviços de saúde interagem com os mesmos e com os profissionais de saúde, de forma a permitir uma maior autonomização e responsabilização no que concerne ao tratamento da sua doença, a relação que estabelecem com o seu médico, e a participação na avaliação e monitorização da qualidade dos serviços. Mais recentemente, também no mundo científico, esta afirmação se fez sentir, com o surgimento de investigação liderada por utentes, no sentido de estudar de forma adequada questões que partem do seu ponto de vista, e que possibilitem a produção de conhecimento significativa no contexto das suas experiências. Com o presente trabalho pretende-se contribuir para a validação da versão portuguesa do VOICE (Service Users’ Perceptions of Inpatient Care, Views on Inpatient Care) (Evans et al., 2012), instrumento para a avaliação dos serviços de internamento de agudos em psiquiatria, construído a partir de um investigação liderado por utentes e partindo das suas perspectiva. O VOICE é constituído por 19 questões, agrupadas em sete domínios: admissão; cuidados e tratamento; medicação; equipa de técnicos do internamento; terapia e atividades; ambiente e diferenças. O presente estudo envolveu uma amostra de 85 utentes de um serviço de internamento de agudos de uma instituição psiquiátrica do Norte de Portugal. A versão portuguesa do VOICE apresentou boa aceitação por parte dos utentes e boas características psicométricas - a consistência interna foi alta (α = 0,87) e todos, exceto um item (item 6), apresentam elevadas correlações item-total (variando de 0,18 - item 6 a 0,71 - item 11; M = 0,54, DP = 0,15), sugerindo ser um instrumento útil na avaliação dos serviços de internamento de agudos. No futuro torna-se necessário alargar o estudo a outros contextos de internamento e envolvendo amostras mais alargadas.-------------- ABSTRACT: In recent years there has been a gradual process to help people with the experience of mental illness regaining their full rights. Following the advances in the understanding of mental health problems, and the use of medication to help patients overcome symptoms, service-users have become more autonomous and responsible in the way they deal with health professionals, and are now called to participate in assessing and monitoring mental health services and policies. In the context of these transformations we have assisted to the emergence of research led by service-users (in this case of psychiatric and mental health services) in order to emphasize their point of view, and to enable the production of significant knowledge resulting from their experiences, and perceptions. The present study aims to contribute to the dissemination of service-user led research, based on the adaptation and validation of the Portuguese version of the VOICE - Service Users' Perceptions Questionnaire, Views on Inpatient Care. (Evans et al., 2012). The VOICE is composed of 19 questions, grouped in seven domains: admissions, care and treatment, medication, team of technicians during hospitalization, therapy and activities, environment and diversity. The present study involved a sample of 85 inpatient of a psychiatric institution in Northern Portugal. The Portuguese version of the VOICE showed good psychometric properties and was well accepted by patients [high internal consistency (α = 0,87); and high correlation of each item, except item 6, with the total score (ranging from 0.18 on item 6 to 0.71 on item 11; average=0,54; SD=0,15), suggesting it to be a useful tool for assessing inpatient services. In the future there is a need to extend the study to other contexts and include larger samples.

Development of an integrative approach for the characterization of ecological risk on marine transition ecosystems: the Sado Estuary as a case study

Estuaries and other transitional waters are complex ecosystems critically important as nursery and shelter areas for organisms. Also, humans depend on estuaries for multiple socio-economical activities such as urbanism, tourism, heavy industry, (taking advantage of shipping), fisheries and aquaculture, the development of which led to strong historical pressures, with emphasis on pollution. The degradation of estuarine environmental quality implies ecologic, economic and social prejudice, hence the importance of evaluating environmental quality through the identification of stressors and impacts. The Sado Estuary (SW Portugal) holds the characteristics of industrialized estuaries, which results in multiple adverse impacts. Still, it has recently been considered moderately contaminated. In fact, many studies were conducted in the past few years, albeit scattered due to the absence of true biomonitoring programmes. As such, there is a need to integrate the information, in order to obtain a holistic perspective of the area able to assist management and decision-making. As such, a geographical information system (GIS) was created based on sediment contamination and biomarker data collected from a decade-long time-series of publications. Four impacted and a reference areas were identified, characterized by distinct sediment contamination patterns related to different hot spots and diffuse sources of toxicants. The potential risk of sediment-bound toxicants was determined by contrasting the levels of pollutants with available sediment quality guidelines, followed by their integration through the Sediment Quality guideline Quotient (SQG-Q). The SQG-Q estimates per toxicant or class was then subjected to georreferencing and statistical analyses between the five distinct areas and seasons. Biomarker responses were integrated through the Biomarkers Consistency Indice and georreferenced as well through GIS. Overall, in spite of the multiple biological traits surveyed, the biomarker data (from several organisms) are accordant with sediment contamination. The most impacted areas were the shipyard area and adjacent industrial belt, followed by urban and agricultural grounds. It is evident that the estuary, although globally moderately impacted, is very heterogeneous and affected by a cocktail of contaminants, especially metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Although elements (like copper, zinc and even arsenic) may originate from the geology of the hydrographic basin of the Sado River, the majority of the remaining contaminants results from human activities. The present work revealed that the estuary should be divided into distinct biogeographic units, in order to implement effective measures to safeguard environmental quality.

Avaliação de necessidades das pessoas idosas em Medicina Geral e Familiar: um estudo de exequibilidade

RESUMO: Os médicos de família devem participar na detecção precoce dos factores de risco que favorecem o declínio funcional nas pessoas idosas. A avaliação estruturada das suas necessidades poderá contribuir para identificar os problemas de saúde que traduzam deterioração funcional. O objectivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a exequibilidade da implementação de um processo de avaliação de necessidades de cuidados em saúde das pessoas idosas na consulta de MGF.Seleccionou-se uma amostra não aleatória de pacientes com 65 ou mais anos de idade, na consulta médica de uma Unidade de Saúde Familiar da região de Lisboa. A avaliação de necessidades foi realizada, pelos médicos, com cinco itens da entrevista Camberwell Assessment of Need for the Elderly (CANE-5). Avaliou-se a percepção dos médicos e dos pacientes sobre este processo de avaliação de necessidades mediante um questionário escrito e entrevistas individuais, respectivamente. Identificaram-se necessidades em 38 (75%) dos 51 pacientes avaliados. Do total das 83 necessidades identificadas, 17 não estavam cobertas. O sofrimento psicológico foi a necessidade não coberta mais frequente. A comparação das avaliações do médico com as do paciente mostrou concordância razoável ou boa nas cinco áreas avaliadas. Esta avaliação foi bem aceite e considerada útil na perspectiva dos médicos e dos pacientes. A principal dificuldade identificada pelos médicos foi o tempo despendido na avaliação face à duração da consulta. Este estudo aponta para a exequibilidade da utilização da entrevista CANE-5 na prática clínica de MGF. No entanto, será importante alargar este estudo a amostras de maior dimensão e avaliar a utilidade da entrevista em intervenções sobre a funcionalidade dos pacientes idosos.----------ABSTRACT: General practitioners (GP) should participate in the early detection of risk factors for fuctional disability in elderly people. Structured needs assessments may contribute to a better identification of health problems that are linked to functional decline. The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility of a structured assessment of needs in the elderly, in the context of opportunistic screening in primary care. A convenience sample was selected of patients aged 65 years and over with scheduled appointments in one general practice in the Lisbon region. The assessment of needs was done by their GPs, using five items of the Camberwell Assessment of Need for the Elderly (CANE-5). Perceptions of GPs and patients about this process of needs assessment were ev+aluated by means of a written questionnaire and individual interviews, respectively. Needs were identified in 38 (75%) of 51 patients. Seventeen unmet needs were identified, out of a total number of 83 needs. Psychological distress was the most frequent unmet need. GP’s and patients’ assessments showed moderate or good agreement in all five areas. This needs’ assessment process was well accepted and considered useful by both GPs and patients. The main difficulty, according to the views of GPs, was the time consumed in this process, given the length of consultation. This study suggests the feasibility of using the CANE-5 interview in clinical practice in primary care settings. However it is important to replicate this study in larger samples and to evaluate the usefulness of the interview regarding interventions related to functionality in elderly patients.

Enhancement of an implemented rating model and impact on existing risk management processes: A hands-on approach from financial supplier risk management within the automotive industry

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a methodical drawback analysis of a financial supplier risk management approach which is currently implemented in the automotive industry. Based on identified methodical flaws, the risk assessment model is further developed by introducing a malus system which incorporates hidden risks into the model and by revising the derivation of the most central risk measure in the current model. Both methodical changes lead to significant enhancements in terms of risk assessment accuracy, supplier identification and workload efficiency.

Support in decision-making under uncertainty: a project risk assessment tool development and supplementary advances

A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.

Risk parity: True versus naive approach

This paper studies the performance of two different Risk Parity strategies, one from Maillard (2008) and a “naïve” that was already used by market practitioners, against traditional strategies. The tests will compare different regions (US, UK, Germany and Japan) since 1991 to 2013, and will use different ways of volatility. The main findings are that Risk Parity outperforms any traditional strategy, and the “true” (by Maillard) has considerable better results than the “naïve” when using historical volatility, while using EWMA there are significant differences.

Brazilian equity risk premium analysis: A macroeconomic approach

Double Degree Masters in Economics Program from Insper and NOVA School of Business and Economics

Estigma e percepções dos médicos de Clínica Geral sobre a doença mental e o suicídio

RESUMO: INTRODUÇÃO: A OMS (2001) revela que cerca de 450 milhões de pessoas sofrem de perturbações mentais ou comportamentais em todo o mundo, mas apenas uma pequena minoria tem tratamento, ainda que elementar. Transformam-se em vítimas por causa da sua doença e convertem-se em alvos de estigma e discriminação. O suicídio é considerado como um grande problema de saúde pública em todo o mundo, é uma das principais causas de morte de jovens adultos e situa-se entre as três maiores causas de morte na população entre 15-34 anos (OMS, 2001). As perturbações mentais aumentam o risco de suicídio. A depressão, esquizofrenia, e a utilização de substâncias incrementam o risco de suicídio. Estudos (Sartorius, 2002; Magliano et al., 2012) mostram que os profissionais de saúde, tal como o público em geral, podem ter atitudes negativas e estigma em relação às pessoas com perturbações mentais, podendo agir em conformidade, uma vez feito e conhecido o diagnóstico psiquiátrico. Os clínicos gerais são os receptores das perturbações mentais e tentativas de suicídio nas principais portas de entrada no acesso a cuidados de saúde. As crenças, conhecimentos e contacto com a doença mental e o suicídio, podem influenciar a atenção clínica. OBJECTIVOS: Avaliar o estigma e as percepções dos médicos de clínica geral em relação às tentativas de suicídio, o suicídio e perturbações mentais bem como os possíveis factores associados a estes fenómenos. MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: Estudo do tipo transversal, combinando métodos quantitativos e qualitativos. A amostra é constituída por 125 sujeitos, médicos de clínica geral. Utilizaram-se as versões adaptadas dos seguintes instrumentos: Questionário sobre Percepções e Estigma em Relação à Saúde Mental e ao Suicídio (Liz Macmin e SOQ, Domino, 2005) e a Escala de Atitudes sobre a Doença Mental (Amanha Hahn, 2002). Para o tratamento estatístico dos dados usou-se a estatística 1) descritiva e 2) Análise estatística das hipóteses formuladas (Qui Quadrado - 2) a correlação entre variáveis (Spearman: ρ, rho). Os dados conectados foram limpos de inconsistências com base no pacote informático e estatístico SPSS versão 20. Para a aferição da consistência interna foi usado o teste de Alfa de Cronbach. RESULTADOS: Uma boa parte da amostra (46.4%) refere que não teve formação formal ou informal em saúde mental e (69.35%) rejeitam a ideia de que “grupos profissionais como médicos, dentistas e psicólogos são mais susceptíveis a cometer o suicídio”. Já (28.0%) têm uma perspectiva pessimista quanto a possibilidade de recuperação total dos sujeitos com perturbação mental. Sessenta e oito(54.4%) associa sujeitos com perturbação mental, a comportamentos estranhos e imprevisíveis, 115 (92.0%) a um baixo QI e 35 (26.7%) a poderem ser violentas e e perigosas. Os dados mostram uma associação estatisticamente significativa (p0.001) entre as variáveis: tempo de serviço no SNS, recear estar perto de sujeitos com doença mental e achar que os sujeitos com doença mental são mais perigosos que outros. Em termos estatísticos, existe uma associação estatitisticamente significativa entre as duas variáveis(X2=9,522; p0.05): percepção de que “é vergonhoso ter uma doença mental” e os conhecimentos em relação à doença mental. Existe uma correlação positiva, fraca e estatisticamente significativa entre os conhecimentos dos clínicos gerais(beneficiar-se de formação em saúde mental) e a percepção sobre os factores de risco (0,187; P0,039). DISCUSSÃO E CONCLUSÕES: A falta de conhecimento sobre as causas e factores de risco para os comportamentos suicidários, opções de intervenção e tratamento, particularmente no âmbito da doença mental, podem limitar a procura de ajuda individual ou dos próximos. Percepções negativas como o facto de não merecerem prioridade nos serviços, mitos (frágeis e cobarde, sempre impulsivo, chamadas de atenção, problemas espirituais) podem constituir-se como um indicador de que os clínicos gerais podem sofrer do mesmo sistema de estigma e crenças, de que sofre o público em geral, podendo agir em conformidade (atitudes de afastamento ereceio). As atitudes são influenciadas por factores como a formação, cultura e sistema de crenças. Sujeitos com boa formação na área da saúde mental têm uma percepção positiva e optimista sobre os factores de risco e uma atitude positiva em relação aos sujeitos com doença mental e comportamentos suicidários.-------------ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: The WHO (2001) reveals that about 450 million people suffer from mental or behavioral disorders worldwide, but only a small minority have access to treatment, though elementary. They become victims because of their disease and they become the targets of stigma and discrimination. Suicide is seen as a major public health problem worldwide, is a leading cause of death for young adults and is included among the three major causes of death in the population aged 15-34 years (WHO, 2001). Mental disorders increase the risk of suicide. Depression, schizophrenia, and the substances misuse increase the risk of suicide. Studies (Sartorius, 2002; Magliano et al, 2012) show that health professionals, such as the general public, may have negative attitudes and stigma towards people with mental disorders, and can act accordingly after psychiatric diagnosis is known. General practitioners are the main entry points of mental disorders and suicide attempts in the health sistem. Beliefs, knowledge and contact with mental illness and suicide, may influence clinical care. OBJECTIVES: To assess stigma and perceptions of general practitioners in relation to suicide attempts, suicide and mental disorders as well as possible factors associated with these phenomena. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This was a descriptive cross-sectional study, combining quantitative and qualitative methods. The sample consisted of 125 subjects, general practitioners. We used adapted versions of the following instruments: Questionnaire of Perceptions and Stigma in Relation to Mental Health and Suicide (Liz Macmin and SOQ, Domino, 2005) and the Scale of Attitudes on Mental Illness (Tomorrow Hahn, 2002). For the statistical treatment of the data we used: 1) descriptive (Data distribution by absolute and relative frequencies for each of the variables under study (including mean and standard deviation measures of central tendency and deviation), 2) statistical analysis of hypotheses using (Chi Square - 2, a hypothesis test that is intended to find a value of dispersion for two nominal variables, evaluating the association between qualitative variables) and the correlation between variables (Spearman ρ, rho), a measure of non-parametric correlation, which evaluates an arbitrary monotonic function can be the description of the relationship between two variables, without making any assumptions about the frequency distribution of the variables). For statistical analysis of the correlations were eliminated subjects who did not respond to questions. The collected data were cleaned for inconsistencies based on computer and statistical package SPSS version 20. To measure the internal consistency was used the Cronbach's alpha test. RESULTS: A significant part of the sample 64 (46.4%) reported no formal or informal training in mental health and 86 (69.35%) reject the idea that "professional groups such as doctors, dentists and psychologists are more likely to commit suicide." On the other hand, 42 (28.0%) have a pessimistic view of the possibility of full recovery of individuals with mental disorder. Sixty-eight ( 54.4 % ) of them associates subjects with mental disorder to strange and unpredictable behavior, 115 ( 92.0 % ), to low IQ, 35 ( 26.7 % ) and even to violent and dangerous behavior, 78 ( 62.4 % ) The data show a statistically significant (p = 0.001) relationship between the following variables: length of service in the NHS, fear of being close to individuals with mental illness and considering individuals with mental illness more dangerous than others. In statistical terms, there is a dependency between the two variables (X2 = 9.522, p> 0.05): the perception that "it is shameful to have a mental illness" and knowledge regarding mental illness. There is a positive and statistically significant weak correlation between knowledge of general practitioners (benefit from mental health training) and the perception of the risk factors (0,187; P0,039). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The lack of knowledge about the causes and risk factors for suicidal behavior, intervention and treatment, particularly in the context of mental illness options, may decreaseseeking for help by individual and their relatives. Negative perceptions such as considering that they dont deserve priority in services, myths (weak and cowards, always impulsive, seeking for attentions, spirituals problems) may indicate that general practitioners, may suffer the same stigma and beliefs systems as the general public, and can act accordingly (withdrawal and fear attitudes). Attitudes are influenced by factors such as education, culture and belief system. Subjects with good training in mental health have a positive and optimistic perception of the risk factors and a positiveattitude towards individuals with mental illness and suicidal behaviour.

Market risk charge of the trading book: a comparison of the Basel II and Basel III

This paper aims to investigate if the market capital charge of the trading book increased in Basel III compared to Basel II. I showed that the capital charge rises by 232% and 182% under the standardized and internal model, respectively. The varying liquidity horizons, the calibration to a stress period, the introduction of credit spread risk, the restrictions on correlations across risk categories and the incremental default charge boost Basel III requirements. Nevertheless, the impact of Expected shortfall at 97.5% is low and long term shocks decrease the charge. The standardized approach presents advantages and disadvantages relative to internal models.

Momentum risk: An approach following the correlations between active stocks

The momentum anomaly has been widely documented in the literature. However, there are still many issues where there is no consensus and puzzles left unexplained. One is that strategies based on momentum present a level of risk that is inconsistent with the diversification that it offers. Moreover, recent studies indicate that this risk is variable over time and mostly strategy-specific. This work project hypothesises and proves that this evidence is explained by the portfolio constitution of the momentum strategy over time, namely the covariance and correlation between companies in the top and down deciles and across them.

Modeling and forecasting value-at-risk for the Portuguese stock market

The aim of this work project is to find a model that is able to accurately forecast the daily Value-at-Risk for PSI-20 Index, independently of the market conditions, in order to expand empirical literature for the Portuguese stock market. Hence, two subsamples, representing more and less volatile periods, were modeled through unconditional and conditional volatility models (because it is what drives returns). All models were evaluated through Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s tests, by comparing forecasts with actual results. Using an out-of-sample of 204 observations, it was found that a GARCH(1,1) is an accurate model for our purposes.