Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Product extension services deployment platform

Due to the progresses made in the branch of embedded technologies, manufacturers are becoming able to pack their shop floor level manufacturing resources with even more complex functionalities. This technological progression is radically changing the way production systems are designed and deployed, as well as, monitored and controlled. The dissemination of smart devices inside production processes confers new visibility on the production system while enabling for a more efficient and effective management of the operations. By turning the current manufacturing resources functionalities into services based on a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA), in order to expose them as a service to the user, the binomial manufacturing resource/service will push the entire manufacturing enterprise visibility to another level while enabling the global optimization of the operations and processes of a production system while, at the same time, supporting its accommodation to the operational spike easily and with reduced impact on production. The present work implements a Cloud Manufacturing infrastructure for achieving the resource/service value-added i.e. to facilitate the creation of services that are the composition of currently available atomic services. In this context, manufacturing resource virtualization (i.e. formalization of resources capabilities into services accessible inside and outside the enterprise) and semantic representation/description are the pillars for achieving resource service composition. In conclusion, the present work aims to act on the manufacturing resource layer where physical resources and shop floor capabilities are going to be provided to the user as a SaaS (Software as a Service) and/or IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service).

A utilização das Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação como ferramenta didática no ensino da História e da Geografia

Os desafios que a educação hoje enfrenta, a par do extraordinário desenvolvimento das tecnologias de informação e comunicação exigem uma reflexão sobre as metodologias de ensino que propiciem uma maior motivação e o desenvolvimento de aprendizagens. O presente relatório resulta de um estudo sobre a aplicação de recursos baseados nas tecnologias de educação e comunicação (TIC) ao serviço da educação, realizada no âmbito da Prática de Ensino Supervisionada em Geografia e História. Esta prática decorreu em duas turmas da Escola Básica e Secundária Passos Manuel (Lisboa), uma do 10.º ano do ensino regular e outra do 11.º ano do Curso Profissional Técnico de Turismo, e numa turma do 9.º ano de escolaridade da Escola Secundária Miguel Torga (Sintra). Este trabalho assenta numa análise e reflexão sobre a aplicação das tecnologias digitais como ferramenta didática, e pretende demonstrar as potencialidades que este tipo de recursos representa no processo de ensino-aprendizagem, assim como os seus principais constrangimentos.

How do global born companies ignite their internationalization and survive in international markets?

Over the last decades, the born global firms or the international new ventures (“INVs”) have assumed a growing role in international business, including in Portugal. The rise of this new type of multinational has challenged several theories concerning the development of multinational companies and the origin of companies’ competitive advantage. This qualitative, case-based research explores the most relevant traits shown by some Portuguese born-global firms. More concretely, the aim of this work is to compare some Portuguese international new ventures in order to understand the role of leadership, culture and strategy in their rapid internationalization and the source of their lasting competitive advantage. It was noticed that these firms’ lasting competitive advantage results from a singular combination of resources and dynamic capabilities that evolves over time. Moreover, it was found that these firms’ foreign subsidiaries and local networks may be essential to enhance the firms competitive advantage as it provides each firm a distinctive source of knowledge and capabilities. As a consequence, the effective assimilation of such resources and capabilities in these firms’ may become crucial for their lasting success. In addition, the leadership, strategy and culture in these firms seem to be quite aligned and form a quite virtuous cycle that contributed to the firms rapid internationalization and for the way the firms developed their own resources and dynamic capabilities and adapted to external environment.