Structural time series models and the Kalman filter: A concise review

The continued increase in availability of economic data in recent years and, more importantly, the possibility to construct larger frequency time series, have fostered the use (and development) of statistical and econometric techniques to treat them more accurately. This paper presents an exposition of structural time series models by which a time series can be decomposed as the sum of a trend, seasonal and irregular components. In addition to a detailled analysis of univariate speci fications we also address the SUTSE multivariate case and the issue of cointegration. Finally, the recursive estimation and smoothing by means of the Kalman filter algorithm is described taking into account its different stages, from initialisation to parameter s estimation.

Positive self-image over time

This paper incorporates egocentric comparisons into a human capital accumulation model and studies the evolution of positive self image over time. The paper shows that the process of human capital accumulation together with egocentric comparisons imply that positive self image of a cohort is first increasing and then decreasing over time. Additionally, the paper finds that positive self image: (1) peaks earlier in activities where skill depreciation is higher, (2) is smaller in activities where the distribution of income is more dispersed, (3) is not a stable characteristic of an individual, and (4) is higher for more patient individuals.

InnovationCity Ruhr: a prime example for social and technological innovation

The project “InnovationCity Ruhr” deals with the reconstruction of the city of Bottrop with regard to energy saving measures. The aim is to make the city more environmental friendly in order to create a model for other industrial cities. Until the conclusion of the project in the year 2020, it is planned to change the surface of Bottrop in several positive ways. This paper focuses on the description of the project to give the reader an example of what exactly is done within the scope of InnovationCity Ruhr. Besides that, the link to the subject of sociology shall be given in order to show that the project is a prime example for social innovation.

A clustering approach for vehicle routing problems with hard time windows

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Logica Computicional

Design of a Continuous-Time (CT) Sigma-Delta modulator for class D audio power amplifiers

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Human activity recognition with accelerometry: novel time and frequency features

Human Activity Recognition systems require objective and reliable methods that can be used in the daily routine and must offer consistent results according with the performed activities. These systems are under development and offer objective and personalized support for several applications such as the healthcare area. This thesis aims to create a framework for human activities recognition based on accelerometry signals. Some new features and techniques inspired in the audio recognition methodology are introduced in this work, namely Log Scale Power Bandwidth and the Markov Models application. The Forward Feature Selection was adopted as the feature selection algorithm in order to improve the clustering performances and limit the computational demands. This method selects the most suitable set of features for activities recognition in accelerometry from a 423th dimensional feature vector. Several Machine Learning algorithms were applied to the used accelerometry databases – FCHA and PAMAP databases - and these showed promising results in activities recognition. The developed algorithm set constitutes a mighty contribution for the development of reliable evaluation methods of movement disorders for diagnosis and treatment applications.

State detection in a financial portfolio: a self-organizing maps approach for financial time series

This study analyses financial data using the result characterization of a self-organized neural network model. The goal was prototyping a tool that may help an economist or a market analyst to analyse stock market series. To reach this goal, the tool shows economic dependencies and statistics measures over stock market series. The neural network SOM (self-organizing maps) model was used to ex-tract behavioural patterns of the data analysed. Based on this model, it was de-veloped an application to analyse financial data. This application uses a portfo-lio of correlated markets or inverse-correlated markets as input. After the anal-ysis with SOM, the result is represented by micro clusters that are organized by its behaviour tendency. During the study appeared the need of a better analysis for SOM algo-rithm results. This problem was solved with a cluster solution technique, which groups the micro clusters from SOM U-Matrix analyses. The study showed that the correlation and inverse-correlation markets projects multiple clusters of data. These clusters represent multiple trend states that may be useful for technical professionals.

Real-time collaborative editing of OutSystems DSL models

Real-time collaborative editing systems are common nowadays, and their advantages are widely recognized. Examples of such systems include Google Docs, ShareLaTeX, among others. This thesis aims to adopt this paradigm in a software development environment. The OutSystems visual language lends itself very appropriate to this kind of collaboration, since the visual code enables a natural flow of knowledge between developers regarding the developed code. Furthermore, communication and coordination are simplified. This proposal explores the field of collaboration on a very structured and rigid model, where collaboration is made through the copy-modify-merge paradigm, in which a developer gets its own private copy from the shared repository, modifies it in isolation and later uploads his changes to be merged with modifications concurrently produced by other developers. To this end, we designed and implemented an extension to the OutSystems Platform, in order to enable real-time collaborative editing. The solution guarantees consistency among the artefacts distributed across several developers working on the same project. We believe that it is possible to achieve a much more intense collaboration over the same models with a low negative impact on the individual productivity of each developer.

A matter of time: Phases of customer co-creation community participation and their impact on customer behavior

Despite the growing relevance of co-creating customer communities only little scientific evidence is available on their impact on transactional behavior of participants. Previous research has mostly used self-reported data or distinguished only between during and pre-community phases obtaining mixed results. However, the author proposes that co-creating community activity takes place in five distinguishable phases and changes in transactional behavior are limited to certain phases. Using 33 months of transactional data of a Dutch online auction provider a study was conducted covering all five phases of the community co-creation process from community planning over community set-up, co-development and co-testing to post-launch. The overall results indicate mixed effects of community participation on the different transactional variables during the co-creation process. Community participation had positive effects on auctions listing behavior at the community set-up, co-development and post-launch phases, whereby the number of auctions listed peaked during the community set-up phase. These results suggest that the impact on transactional behavior differs between co-creation phases and different psychological mechanism limited to certain phases might trigger the respective changes.

Being ahead of its time the consumer resistance phenomenon: A comparative case study research

Double Degree.

Who uses NHS saúde 24 hotline? Has the user changed over time?

There has been an increase in the use of telephone-based services and internet throughout the years and, therefore, the Saúde 24 Hotline has become an important service in Portugal. This service aims to screen, counsel and refer the patient in order to avoid unnecessary visits to health institutions and also to indicate the most appropriate resource according to the illness. This work has two different questions: the first one examines the determinants of satisfaction that have more influence on the overall satisfaction of the Saúde 24 Hotline users. The second one aims to analyze if the confidence level of the users is increasing over time, measured by following the recommendation. The first study was conducted on a random sample collected from June to October 2014, which was taken from the User Satisfaction Survey. The second approach includes data from January 2008 to December 2014 from the Clinical Data Base of all users who have called the Hotline. Findings suggest that the majority of users are very satisfied with the service and the variables with more impact on the overall satisfaction are commitment and availability from the nurse, adequacy of call duration and quick identification of the problem. The survey indicates that 94% of respondents follow the recommendation and on average people have called the hotline 3 times in the previous year. The results from the Clinical Database show that people who were recommended to go to the emergency room are more likely to follow the advice than the people who were recommended to book routine appointments

Electrohysterogram signal component cataloging with spectral and time-frequency methods

The Electrohysterogram (EHG) is a new instrument for pregnancy monitoring. It measures the uterine muscle electrical signal, which is closely related with uterine contractions. The EHG is described as a viable alternative and a more precise instrument than the currently most widely used method for the description of uterine contractions: the external tocogram. The EHG has also been indicated as a promising tool in the assessment of preterm delivery risk. This work intends to contribute towards the EHG characterization through the inventory of its components which are: • Contractions; • Labor contractions; • Alvarez waves; • Fetal movements; • Long Duration Low Frequency Waves; The instruments used for cataloging were: Spectral Analysis, parametric and non-parametric, energy estimators, time-frequency methods and the tocogram annotated by expert physicians. The EHG and respective tocograms were obtained from the Icelandic 16-electrode Electrohysterogram Database. 288 components were classified. There is not a component database of this type available for consultation. The spectral analysis module and power estimation was added to Uterine Explorer, an EHG analysis software developed in FCT-UNL. The importance of this component database is related to the need to improve the understanding of the EHG which is a relatively complex signal, as well as contributing towards the detection of preterm birth. Preterm birth accounts for 10% of all births and is one of the most relevant obstetric conditions. Despite the technological and scientific advances in perinatal medicine, in developed countries, prematurity is the major cause of neonatal death. Although various risk factors such as previous preterm births, infection, uterine malformations, multiple gestation and short uterine cervix in second trimester, have been associated with this condition, its etiology remains unknown [1][2][3].

Real convergence in per capita output and growth in Eurozone: A time-series approach

The real convergence hypothesis has spurred a myriad of empirical tests and approaches in the economic literature. This Work Project intends to test for real output and growth convergence in all N(N-1)/2 possible pairs of output and output growth gaps of 14 Eurozone countries. This paper follows a time-series approach, as it tests for the presence of unit roots and persistence changes in the above mentioned pairs of output gaps, as well as for the existence of growth convergence with autoregressive models. Overall, significantly greater evidence has been found to support growth convergence rather than output convergence in our sample.

Has the time for renewables finally arrived? – An event study on EPA’s Clean Power Plan

The recent proposals presented by EPA aimed to reduce the dependency of fossil fuels and to lower current emissions levels, hoping to gradually shift electric generation units to renewable energy sources. Actually, the Final Rule Proposal announcement day exhibited a negative Abnormal Return on Fossil Fuels but the following days had positive Abnormal Returns, mostly due to legislative change perceived by financial markets which eased up implementation periods of the proposed measures in the Final Rule when compared to the Draft Rule. Oppositely, Renewables and Solar Portfolios exhibited negative Cumulative Abnormal Returns over the period surrounding the Final Rule.

The role of α2,3- and α2,6-sialylation

RESUMO: Os glicoconjugados que decoram a superfície celular e os lípidos e proteínas secretados ocupam o ponto de encontro onde normalmente ocorrem interacções críticas homólogas (hospedeiro-hospedeiro) e heterólogas (hospedeiro-patogénio). Apesar de ser largamente aceite que os glicanos são parte integrante do processo de imunidade, continua a não ser claro qual o papel que os glicanos, em toda a sua diversidade, tomam no quadro geral da imunidade. Os glicanos, que são frequentemente terminados por resíduos de ácido siálico, podem ser alterados por factores externos, tais como patogénios, ou por acontecimentos fisiológicos celulares específicos. Normalmente em posição terminal, as glico-estruturas que contêm ácido siálico assumem um papel fundamental numa quantidade substancial de receptores imunes envolvidos na adesividade e tráfico celular, tal como as Selectinas e as Siglecs, das quais se sabe apresentarem uma relevante função imune. À altura do início desta tese, era sabido que os ácidos siálicos expressos à superfície das células poderiam modular mecanismos importantes nas respostas imunes adaptativas. Considerando a posição de charneira que as células dendríticas (DCs) ocupam na transição da resposta imune inata para a adaptativa, antecipámos que os ácidos siálicos poderiam também modular mecanismos relevantes nas DCs humanas. As DCs têm uma função muito relevante na verificação e captura antigénica, migração para os gânglios linfáticos e apresentação antigénica aos linfócitos, uma sequência de funções que conduz, em ultima instância, à indução da resposta inata adaptativa. Considerando estas premissas, a nossa hipótese principal foi que os ácidos siálicos podem influenciar funções relevantes das DCs, tais como captura de antigénios, maturação, migração para os gânglios linfáticos e apresentação antigénica às células Para testar esta hipótese, dividimos o trabalho em quatro partes: 1) Analisámos os glicanos sialilados de superfície, expressos durante a diferenciação de monócitos humanos em DCs (moDCs). Os nossos dados mostraram que a expressão dos glicanos com ligações em O (O-glicanos) e sialilados em α2,3, assim como glicanos com ligações em N (N-glicanos) sialilados em α2,6 e α2,3 aumentou durante o processo de diferenciação das moDCs. Contribuindo para esta nova configuração glicosídica, três sialiltransferases (STs) poderão estar envolvidas: a ST6Gal-1 correlaciona-se com a expressão aumentada de N-glicanos sialilados em α2,6; a ST3Gal-1 contribui para a sialilação em α2,3 de O-glicanos, em especial de antigénios T; e a ST3Gal-4 poderá ser responsável pelo aumento de N-glicanos sialilados em α2,3. Após estímulo e consequente maturação das moDCs, ambos os níveis de expressão génica de ST6Gal-1 e ST3Gal-4 são negativamente modificados sendo, também, que a expressão de ST3Gal-1 varia consoante o estímulo. 2) Estudámos posteriormente as consequências da modulação dos ácidos siálicos de superfície nas funções das DCs. Observámos que a remoção dos ácidos siálicos de superfície diminui significativamente a capacidade de macropinocitose e endocitose mediada por receptores nas moDCs. Em contrapartida, o tratamento com sialidase aumentou significativamente a capacidade das moDCs para fagocitar Escherichia coli. Determinou-se também que este mecanismo requer a existência de ácido siálico presente nas E. coli indicando um mecanismo de interacção hospedeiro-patogénio dependente de ácido siálico em ambas as partes envolvidas. As moDCs tratadas com sialidase também apresentam um nível superior de expressão de moléculas de MHC e moléculas co-estimulatórias, sugerindo um fenótipo celular mais maduro. Recorrendo ao modelo de ratinho, utilizaram-se DCs derivadas de células da medula (BMDCs) de ratinhos deficientes em ST3Gal-1 e ST6Gal-1. Estes ensaios revelaram que quer a endocitose quer a maturação são influenciadas por modificações 37 nos glicanos sialilados em α2,3 ou α2,6. A detecção e quantificação de proteínas Nglicosiladas e sialiladas em α2,6 apontou para um potencial envolvimento de integrinas β2 nestes mecanismos. 3) O efeito da sialilação em α2,6 na migração das DCs para os gânglios linfáticos foi também analisado. Observámos que BMDCs deficientes para ST6Gal-1 apresentam uma redução de cerca de 50% nos níveis de migração das DCs para os gânglios linfáticos, tal como aferido em ensaios de inflamação in situ e estudos de transferência adoptiva de células. Uma redução dos níveis deste tipo de migração foi também observada quando BMDCs nativas foram transferidas para ratinhos receptores deficientes em ST6Gal-1. São, contudo, necessários mais ensaios de forma a identificar as moléculas envolvidas neste processo. 4) Por último, analisámos o impacto da sialilação na estimulação antigénica das DCs às células T. Assim, concluiu-se que moDCs tratadas com sialidase apresentam um nível de expressão superior de IL-12, TNF-ɑ, IL-6 e IL-10, e activação do factor de transcrição nuclear kappa B (NF-κB). As DCs tratadas com sialidase induziram uma maior proliferação nas células T, com expressão correspondente de interferão-γ. Este dado sugere que a remoção de ácidos siálicos de superfície contribui para o desenvolvimento de uma resposta pro-inflamatória do tipo 1 por células T auxiliares (resposta Th1). Considerando estes dados no seu todo, concluímos que o ácido siálico tem um papel marcante nas funções imunes das DCs. Alterações à concentração de ácido siálico à superfície das células podem alterar a endocitose/fagocitose, maturação, migração para os tecidos e gânglios linfáticos e capacidade estimulatória para com as células T. Complementando estes dados, as ligações glicosídicas de ácidos siálicos criados por ST6Gal-1 e ST3Gal-1 são funcionalmente relevantes. A modulação programada da sialilação do glicocálice, mediada por sialidases individuais ou sialiltransferases é uma possibilidade aceitável para a melhoria da fagocitose por DCs e da sua potência imunológica. Este facto tem um significado particular para imunoterapias baseadas em DCs, podendo provar-se decisivo para a sua eficiência e aplicabilidade num futuro muito próximo.-------------------------------ABSTRACT: Glycans decorating cell surface and secreted proteins and lipids occupy the junction where critical host–host and host-pathogen interactions occur. In spite of the wide acceptance that glycans are centrally implicated in immunity, exactly how glycans and their variety and variability contribute to the overall immune response remains poorly defined. Glycans, frequently terminated by sialic acid residues, may be modified by external factors such as pathogens or upon specific physiological cellular events. The terminal, privileged positions of sialic acid-modified structures makes them key, fundamental determinants for a number of immune receptors with known involvement in cellular adhesiveness and cell trafficking, such as Selectins and Siglecs, with known relevant immune functions. At the time this thesis was initiated, it was established that sialic acids expressed at cell surface could modulate important mechanisms of the adaptive immune responses. Given the key role of dendritic cells (DCs) in the transition from innate to the adaptive immune responses, we anticipated that sialic acids could also modulate important mechanisms of human DCs. DCs have a relevant role in antigen screening and uptake, migration to lymph nodes and antigen presentation to lymphocytes, ultimately triggering the adaptive immune response. Therefore, our primary hypothesis was that sialic acids may modulate DC functions, such as antigen uptake, maturation, homing to lymph nodes and antigen presentation to T cells. To test this hypothesis, we divided our work in four parts. 1) Surface sialylated glycans expressed during differentiation from human monocytes to DCs (moDCs) were analyzed. Our data showed that α2,3-sialylated O-glycans and α2,6- and α2,3-sialylated N-glycans expression increased during moDC differentiation. Three main sialyltransferases (STs) are committed with this new glycan configuration: ST6Gal- 1 correlates with the increased expression of α2,6-sialylated N-glycans; ST3Gal-1 32 contributes for the α2,3-sialylation of O-glycans, especially T antigens; and ST3Gal-4 may contribute for the increased α2,3-sialylated N-glycans. Upon moDC maturation, ST6Gal-1 and ST3Gal-4 are downregulated and ST3Gal-1 is altered in a stimulus dependent manner. 2) We subsequently analyzed the consequences of the modulation of cell surface sialic acids in DC functions. We observed that removing surface sialic acid by sialidase significantly decreased the capacity of moDCs to micropinocytose and receptormediated endocytose. In contrast, treatment with a sialidase significantly improved the capacity of moDCs to phagocytose Escherichia coli. The improved phagocytosis mechanism required E. coli sialic acids, indicating a mechanism of host–pathogen interaction dependent on sialic acid moieties. Sialidase-treated moDCs have increased expression of MHC and co-stimulatory molecules, suggesting a more mature phenotype. Experiments using mouse bone marrow-derived DCs (BMDCs) from ST3Gal-1-/- and ST6Gal-1-/- strains indicated that endocytosis and maturation are influenced by changes in either α2,3 or α2,6-sialylated glycans. The analysis of α2,6-sialylated, N-glycosylated proteins, strongly suggested the potential involvement of β2 integrins, underlying these mechanisms. 3) The effect of α2,6-sialylation in DC homing to lymph nodes was also analyzed. We observed that BMDCs deficient for ST6Gal-1 have an almost 50% reduction in DC homing, as assayed by in situ inflammation and adoptive transfer studies. A reduction in DC homing was also observed when wild type BMDCs were transferred into ST6Gal-1-/- recipient mice. Further investigations are necessary to identify the molecules involved in this process. 4) Finally, we also analyzed the impact of sialylation on DCs ability to prime T cells. Sialidase-treated moDCs show increased gene expression of IL-12, TNF-α, IL-6 and IL- 10 cytokines, and activation of the transcription factor nuclear factor-κB. Sialidase33 treated DCs induced a higher proliferative response of T cells with concomitant higher expression of interferon-γ, suggesting that the clearance of cell surface sialic acids contributes to the development of a T helper type 1 proinflammatory response. Together, our data strongly support sialic acid’s relevance in DC immune functions. Alterations of cell surface sialic acid content can alter the endocytosis/phagocytosis, maturation, migration/homing and the ability for T cell priming in human DCs. Moreover, sialic acid linkages created by ST6Gal-1 and ST3Gal-1 are functionally relevant. The engineering of cell surface sialylation, mediated by individual sialidases or sialyltransferases is a likely possibility to fine tune DC phagocytosis and immunological potency, with particular significance to DC-based therapies.