Liquidity, business cycles and monetary policy: A simulation

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Heritages, Identities, and Policy in the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon

In a world that has moved away from narratives based on the idea of progress, the past has established itself as a place of reference: confirming to ourselves that what we were is indispensible for sustaining what we think we are. The recovery of the past is thus one of the most common symbolic instruments used in negotiating identities. The cultural practices that have recourse to representation mechanisms that call on the past in order to consider the present always end up translating themselves, insofar as they fragment, reorganize and interpret it in their transformation, or, to use a formula that has become unavoidable, in their “invention”. Patrimonialization is one such practice. It associates the notion of heritage – which is not a given fact, but rather a socially constructed classification, and therefore one that is constantly being negotiated – with specific objects that come to serve as cultural representations of the groups who consider themselves to be their rightful owners. In the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, as in other ethnographic contexts, patrimonialization encompasses things as diverse as landscapes, monuments, popular architecture, handicrafts, local feast days/processions/pilgrimages and people; all things that can, once transformed into material representations of the past, serve as arguments for the identity fictions of the people who inhabit them.

Technology transition towards electric mobility - technology assessment as a tool for policy design

Paper presented at the Colloquium Gerpisa 2013, Paris (http://gerpisa.org/node/2085), Session n°: 19 New kinds of mobility: old and new business models

Efficient paraconsistent reasoning with rules and ontologies for the semantic web

Ontologies formalized by means of Description Logics (DLs) and rules in the form of Logic Programs (LPs) are two prominent formalisms in the field of Knowledge Representation and Reasoning. While DLs adhere to the OpenWorld Assumption and are suited for taxonomic reasoning, LPs implement reasoning under the Closed World Assumption, so that default knowledge can be expressed. However, for many applications it is useful to have a means that allows reasoning over an open domain and expressing rules with exceptions at the same time. Hybrid MKNF knowledge bases make such a means available by formalizing DLs and LPs in a common logic, the Logic of Minimal Knowledge and Negation as Failure (MKNF). Since rules and ontologies are used in open environments such as the Semantic Web, inconsistencies cannot always be avoided. This poses a problem due to the Principle of Explosion, which holds in classical logics. Paraconsistent Logics offer a solution to this issue by assigning meaningful models even to contradictory sets of formulas. Consequently, paraconsistent semantics for DLs and LPs have been investigated intensively. Our goal is to apply the paraconsistent approach to the combination of DLs and LPs in hybrid MKNF knowledge bases. In this thesis, a new six-valued semantics for hybrid MKNF knowledge bases is introduced, extending the three-valued approach by Knorr et al., which is based on the wellfounded semantics for logic programs. Additionally, a procedural way of computing paraconsistent well-founded models for hybrid MKNF knowledge bases by means of an alternating fixpoint construction is presented and it is proven that the algorithm is sound and complete w.r.t. the model-theoretic characterization of the semantics. Moreover, it is shown that the new semantics is faithful w.r.t. well-studied paraconsistent semantics for DLs and LPs, respectively, and maintains the efficiency of the approach it extends.

Fiscal policy under financial stress: A threshold VAR approach

The purpose of the project is to measure the impact of fiscal policy on the Portuguese GDP and how it may vary according to the state of the financial market. A Threshold VAR model is presented in which the two regimes are found using a financial stress index that divides the economy into a situation of financial stress and financial stability.

Determinants of Portuguese bank’s provisioning policies: Discretionary behaviour of generic and specific allowances

In this paper we test for the impact of the regulatory environment on a bank’s discretionary provisioning practices. We develop a model that structures the dynamics of the provision policy for the two classes of provisions: generic provisions and specific provisions. The model is tested using a comprehensive database of all financial institutions operating in Portugal for 1990-2000. This unique dataset comprises banks subject to the Portuguese rules as well as bank subsidiaries subject to their home-country regulation and we were able to identify distinct behaviours between them. Our results show the importance of handling he two types of provisions separately. They support the hypothesis that banks have a discretionary behaviour in setting up their provisions, and find evidence of income smoothing and capital management. We also find that the regulatory regime impacts on discretionary provisioning policies because banks when forced to increase one type of provision react by reducing the iscretionary component of the other, a finding we designated as a substitution effect.

L'Oreal acquisition policy: The Body Shop case study

The Work Project I present focuses on the analysis of L’Oréal acquisition policy, trying to outline if the M&A deals it has led over the last 14 years have succeeded in creating value. By replicating the model proposed by Todd Hazelkorn, Marc Zenner and Anil Shivdasani in their paper “Creating Value with Mergers and Acquisitions”, I analyzed the 29 M&A deals that L’Oréal has led worldwide, understanding the common factors able to explain the success of such transactions. Further, I focused on The Body Shop case study, a highly criticized and controversial acquisition that has proved to be profitable and able to create value.

Product relatedness role on driving industrial policy success

This thesis aims to study how product relatedness to the current pattern of specialization influences the success of industrial policies in underdeveloped sectors. Drawing from Hausmann and Klinger (2006), this work extends the existing literature on the importance of proximity spillovers to explain economic development by focusing on underdeveloped sectors. We find that investment's success in an underdeveloped sector is more likely if it is highly related to the current pattern of specialization. However, heterogeneity amongst sectors is remarkable. Moreover, industrial policy cases are sometimes successful despite the bad odds provided by this criterion, suggesting further factors should be considered.

Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in the Eurozone

To study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy across the different countries of the eurozone, I develop an identification scheme to disentangle conventional from non-conventional policy shocks, using futures contracts on overnight interest rates and the size of the European Central Bank balance sheet. Setting these shocks as endogenous variables in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, along with the CPI and the employment rate, estimated impulse response functions of policy to macroeconomic variables are studied. I find that unconventional policy shocks generated mixed effects in inflation but had a positive impact on employment, with the exception of Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy where the employment response is close to zero or negative. The heterogeneity that characterizes the responses shows that the monetary policy measures taken in recent years were not sufficient to stabilize the economies of the eurozone countries under more severe economic conditions.

Search-for-yield in Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds and monetary policy

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy on mutual fund risk taking using a sample of Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds in the 2000-2012 period. Firstly I estimate time-varying measures of risk exposure (betas) for the individual funds, for the benchmark portfolio, as well as for a representative equally-weighted portfolio, through 24-month rolling regressions of a two-factor model with two systematic risk factors: interest rate risk (TERM) and default risk (DEF). Next, in the second phase, using the estimated betas, I try to understand what portion of the risk exposure is in excess of the benchmark (active risk) and how it relates to monetary policy proxies (one-month rate, Taylor residual, real rate and first principal component of a cross-section of government yields and rates). Using this methodology, I provide empirical evidence that Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds respond to accommodative monetary policy by significantly increasing exposure, in excess of their benchmarks, to default risk rate and slightly to interest risk rate as well. I also find that the increase in funds’ risk exposure to gain a boost in return (search-for-yield) is more pronounced following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, indicating that the current historic low interest rates may incentivize excessive risk taking. My results suggest that monetary policy affects the risk appetite of non-bank financial intermediaries.

Effects of quantitative easing on the USA economy: A test for policy effectiveness

The catastrophic disruption in the USA financial system in the wake of the financial crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to launch a Quantitative Easing (QE) programme in late 2008. In line with Pesaran and Smith (2014), I use a policy effectiveness test to assess whether this massive asset purchase programme was effective in stimulating the economic activity in the USA. Specifically, I employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), in order to obtain a counterfactual for the USA real GDP growth rate. Using data from 1983Q1 to 2009Q4, the results show that the beneficial effects of QE appear to be weak and rather short-lived. The null hypothesis of policy ineffectiveness is not rejected, which suggests that QE did not have a meaningful impact on output growth.

Competition policy costs to firms

The existence of competition policy forces companies to adjust their behaviour. This is also costly. Using a database from a company on contracts, I will try to estimate if a specific competition policy disposition, supply contracts cannot be longer than 60 months, has costs for the coffee suppliers operating in the Portuguese “on-trade” coffee market. The estimation method used in this paper will be OLS. The results suggest that limiting the duration of exclusivity contracts to 60 months can be harmful to the coffee suppliers and it can even seriously affect the market functioning. Key

Energy efficiency in energy policy: Empirical evidence of direct rebound effect in Portuguese household's demand for electricity

This project the direct rebound effect for the electricity demand in Portugal. While we find evidence of such an effect, the estimations also reflect the institutional arrangement that has characterized the electricity market in the country. Also, issues related to energy efficiency promotion are addressed in general putting into context the case study developed.

Hospital-empresa : crónica de um nascimento retardado : Políticas de saúde : Em foco

RESUMO - A gestão empresarial dos hospitais é uma velha aspiração do sistema e dos profissionais da saúde em Portugal. Já o Estatuto Hospitalar de 1968 previa a organização e a gestão dos hospitais «em termos de gestão empresarial». A Lei de Bases da Saúde, de 1990, relembrava que a administração das unidades de saúde deveria obedecer a «regras de gestão empresarial». O Hospital Fernando da Fonseca, criado desde 1991, foi objecto de concessão de gestão por contrato, precedendo concurso público, a uma entidade privada, em 1995. Em 1997, o relatório do Grupo de Trabalho sobre o Estatuto Jurídico do Hospital recomendava a adopção da figura de instituto público com natureza empresarial, adequada autonomia de gestão e forte responsabilidade, podendo regular-se, em alguns domínios, por normas de direito privado. Em 1998 foi criado o Hospital de São Sebastião, em Santa Maria da Feira, com formas inovadoras de gestão, utilizando meios de gestão maleáveis. Em 1999 foi criada a Unidade Local de Saúde de Matosinhos, englobando não apenas o Hospital de Pedro Hispano, naquela cidade, mas também os quatro centros de saúde da sua área de atracção. Em 2001 foi criado o Hospital do Barlavento Algarvio, em moldes semelhantes aos do Hospital de São Sebastião. Os restantes hospitais públicos mantiveram a estrutura e regras de funcionamento convencionais. Observa-se que o modelo de gestão convencional do hospital público tem hoje consequências desfavoráveis para os cidadãos, para os profissionais que nele trabalham e também para o sistema de saúde no seu conjunto. Em 2002, uma nova lei alterou disposições da Lei de Bases da Saúde de 1990 e aprovou um novo regime jurídico de gestão hospitalar. De acordo com ele, a rede de prestação de cuidados de saúde passou a integrar vários modelos de hospitais: hospitais SPA, hospitais EPE, hospitais SA, clínicas privadas com ou sem nome de hospital, instituições e serviços geridos por entidades públicas ou privadas, mediante contrato de gestão e hospitais PPP. Analisam-se os ganhos introduzidos pelo modelo inovador de hospital SA, no que respeita ao estatuto, dotação de capital, poderes especiais, regras de controlo financeiro, regimes laborais, órgãos sociais, instrumentos de gestão e direcção técnica. Finalmente, antecipa-se um quadro analítico de oportunidades e riscos sobre este modelo. As críticas têm-se concentrado sobre a estratégia de mudança e sobre o mecanismo de escolha dos dirigentes e das respectivas chefias intermédias. Em relação à estratégia, conclui-se ser a questão mais empírica do que conceptual. Em relação à forma de identificação dos dirigentes, recomenda-se o acompanhamento crítico da experiência, salientando-se, a par do que ela pode trazer de positivo, os riscos de partidarização e instabilidade.