Machine learning Gaussian short rate

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Estatística e Gestão do Risco

Undrestanding postoperative cognitive dysfunction: novel insights

ABSTRACT: Background: Sleep is integral to biological function and sleep disruption can result in both physiological and psychological dysfunction. The acute cognitive consequences of sleep loss has been an active field of recent investigation, evidence suggests that sleep disruption in critically ill older adults can result in acute decrements in cognitive functioning. Surgery activates the innate immune system, inducing neuroinflammatory changes that interfere with cognition. The fact that patients with sleep disorders have an increased likelihood of exhibiting postoperative delirium encourages us to investigate the contribution of perioperative SF to the neuroinflammatory and cognitive responses of surgery. Methods: The effects of 24h sleep fragmentation (SF) and surgery were explored on adult C57BL/6J male mice. SF procedure started at 7 am with the home-cages being placed on a large platform orbital shaker cycled every 120 seconds (30 sec on/90 sec off). This procedure lasted for 24h. Stabilized tibia fracture was performed either before or after the 24h SF procedure. Separate cohorts of mice were tested for systemic and hippocampal inflammation and cognition. Results: Twenty-four hours of SF induced non-hippocampal memory dysfunction and increase in systemic IL-6. SF and surgery caused hippocampal-dependent memory impairment, although memory impairment was not exacerbated by combining SF with surgery. One day after either SF or surgery there was a significant increase in IL6 mRNA and TNF-alpha mRNA. These increments were more pronounced when either pre or post operative SF was combined with surgery. Conclusions: We show that while SF and surgery can independently produce significant memory impairment, perioperative SF significantly increased hippocampal inflammation without further cognitive impairment. The dissociation between neuroinflammation and cognitive decline may relate to our use of a sole memory paradigm that does not capture other aspects of cognition, especially learning.

Income and mental health

RESUMO: A enorme carga e o sofrimento provocado pelas doenças mentais no mundo tornam imperioso conhecer melhor os seus determinantes. Combater as desigualdades em saude tornou-‐se uma prioridadade de saúde publica, mas e necessário estabelecer as suas vias causais para ser possível implementar intervenções e politicas efetivas. A literatura cientifica tem sugerido a importância dos determinantes sociais na etiologia e evolucao das principais doenças mentais e do suicidio, com especial enfase no papel da desvantagem social. Ainda assim, o papel dos factores psicossociais na saúde mental, e especificamente o papel do rendimento e da sua distribuição não tem sido investigado no meu pais, Portugal. No meu projecto de investigação proponho‐me a estudar se em Portugal existe uma associação entre as doenças mentais e o rendimento absoluto e relativo. Pretendo usar os dados do primeiro inquérito epidemiológico sobre saude mental realizado em Portugal,um inquérito nacional transversal no domicilio que foi conduzido em 2009, integrado no WHO World Mental Health Survey Consortium. Nesta tese de mestrado apresento os resultados da minha revisão da literatura Sobre a relação entre oestatuto socio-economico e a saúde mental e esboço uma proposta de pesquisa para continuar a investigar estetema. A evidencia que apresento mostra que a exposição aum vasto leque de riscos psicossociais, como o baixo rendimento, a educação limitada e o estatuto ocupacionalbaixo,aumenta a probabilidade de desenvolver problemas de saúde mental.. As diferencas em saúde seguem um gradiente social, com piores resultados de saúde a medida que a posição na hierarquia social diminui. Tambem sumarizo a literatura sobre o papel do contexto na produção de desigualdades em saúde para alem das características individuais. Tem especial interesse o potencial efeito na saúde do rendimento relativo e a importância da distribuição dos rendimentos como determinante de saude. Finalmente, delineio os possíveis mecanismos através dos quais o estatuto socio-economico contribui para as disparidades em saúde.-------------------ABSTRACT: The enormous burden and suffering from mental disorders worldwide makes it imperative to better understand its determinants. Tackling nhealth inequalities has become a public health priority, but it is necessary to establish their causalpathways in order to implement effective interventions and policies. Scientific literature has suggested the importance of social determinants in the aetiology and course of major mental disorders and suicide, with special emphasis on the role of social disadvantage. Nevertheless, the role of psychosocial factors on mental health, and specifically the role of income and its distribution, has not been researched in my home country, Portugal. In my research project I propose to study whether in Portugal there is an association between mental disorders and absolute and relative income. I intend to use data from the first Portuguese Mental Health Survey, a national cross-sectional household survey that was conducted in 2009, integrated in the WHO World Mental Health Survey Consortium. In this masters thesis I present the results of my literature review on the relation between Socioeconomic status and mental health and outline a research proposal to further nvestigate this topic. The body of evidence that I present shows that exposure to a wide range of psychosocial risks, such as low income, limited education, and low occupational status, increases the likelihood of mental health problems. Differences in health follow a social gradient, with worsening health as the position in the social ladder decreases. I also summarize the literature on the role of context in producing health inequalities beyond individual characteristics. Of special interest is the potential health effect of relative income and the importance of income distribution as a health determinant. Finally, I outline the various possible mechanisms for health disparities associated with socioeconomic status.

Managing innovation complexity: About the co-existence of innovation types

The purpose of this study is to contribute to the changing innovation management literature by providing an overview of different innovation types and organizational complexity factors. Aiming at a better understanding of effective innovation management, innovation and complexity are related to the formulation of an innovation strategy and interaction between different innovation types is further explored. The chosen approach in this study is to review the existing literature on different innovation types and organizational complexity factors in order to design a survey which allows for statistical measurement of their interactions and relationships to innovation strategy formulation. The findings demonstrate interaction between individual innovation types. Additionally, organizational complexity factors and different innovation types are significantly related to innovation strategy formulation. In particular, more closed innovation and incremental innovation positively influence the likelihood of innovation strategy formulation. Organizational complexity factors have an overall negative influence on innovation strategy formulation. In order to define best practices for innovation management and to guide managerial decision making, organizations need to be aware of the co-existence of different innovation types and formulate an innovation strategy to more closely align their innovation objectives.

Efeito fim-de-semana e noite : impacto do momento de admissão sobre a mortalidade e a demora média no internamento

RESUMO - Contexto: Admite-se a existência de variações no número e nível de experiência dos profissionais de saúde disponíveis nos hospitais durante a noite e o fim-de-semana. As consequências desta situação na qualidade dos cuidados de saúde prestados expõem a importância deste estudo realizado com o objetivo de avaliar o impacto do momento de admissão sobre a mortalidade e a demora média no internamento. Metodologia: Foram estudados 201 369 episódios urgentes, admitidos com um de 36 diagnósticos principais, de acordo com as informações na base de dados dos resumos de alta, para o ano de 2012. O momento de admissão foi definido por período (dias úteis/fim-de-semana) e por hora (dia/noite), e estimaram-se os efeitos fim-de-semana e noite ao nível da mortalidade e da demora média em modelos de regressão logística. Resultados: Registou-se um aumento de 3% no risco de morte, em doentes admitidos ao fim-de-semana. Diferenças que não se verificaram entre os doentes admitidos de dia e de noite. Relativamente à demora média, verificou-se um aumento de 3% na probabilidade dos doentes admitidos durante o fim-de-semana terem uma demora média de internamento superior. Assim como os doentes admitidos durante a noite apresentaram um aumento de 2,9% na probabilidade de terem demora média de internamento mais longa. Conclusão: Os dados apresentados permitem um melhor conhecimento sobre a influência da variação da atividade hospitalar ao longo do dia e da semana nos hospitais portugueses, identificando a necessidade de aprofundar o tema e de implementar medidas que suprimam os efeitos fim-de-semana e noite.

Learning new tricks: Corticostriatal dynamics during novel skill learning

Learning novel actions and skills is a prevalent ability across multiple species and a critical feature for survival and competence in a constantly changing world. Novel actions are generated and learned through a process of trial and error, where an animal explores the environment around itself, generates multiple patterns of behavior and selects the ones that increase the likelihood of positive outcomes. Proper adaptation and execution of the selected behavior requires the coordination of several biomechanical features by the animal. Cortico-basal ganglia circuits and loops are critically involved in the acquisition, learning and consolidation of motor skills.(...)

Online consumer behavior: The tablet shopper – A new kind of customer?

Tablet computers are on the rise and are increasingly superseding stationary computers in terms of modern online shopping. This paper therefore aims on understanding how tablet and website characteristics might impact online consumer behavior. The collected data resulted from focus groups and in-depth interviews conducted with a technology affine audience. It has shown that tablets indeed may have shifted shopping behavior from utilitarian towards rather recreational attributes. Discussions also revealed high customer expectations towards visited shopping websites and prevailing deficits. Thus, harnessing the concept of experiential flow is crucial. Compelling experiences are required to increase the duration of stay and consequently the likelihood of increased purchases.

Empirical evidences on voluntary delisting phenomenon

The paper studies what drives firms to voluntary delist from capital markets and what differs in firms’ behavior and fundamentals between public-to-private transactions and M&A deals with listed corporations. Moreover, I study the relationship between ownership percentage in controlling shareholders’ hands and cumulative returns around the delisting public announcement. I perform my tests both for the Italian and the US markets and I compare the findings to better understand how the phenomenon works in these different institutional environments. Consistent with my expectations, I find that the likelihood of delisting is mainly related to size, underperformance and undervaluation, while shareholders are more rewarded when their companies are involved in PTP transactions than in M&As with public firms.

An analog model for global macro investing

This study proposes a systematic model that is able to fit the Global Macro Investing universe. The Analog Model tests the possibility of capturing the likelihood of an optimal investment allocation based on similarity across different periods in history. Instead of observing Macroeconomic data, the model uses financial markets’ variables to classify unknown short-term regimes. This methodology is particularly relevant considering that asset classes and investment strategies react differently to specific macro environment shifts.

Banking crises: The impact of financial liberalization

This paper intends to study whether financial liberalization tends to increase the likelihood of systemic banking crises. I used a sample of 79 countries with data spanning from 1973 to 2005 to run a panel probit model. I found that, if anything, financial liberalization as measured across seven different dimensions tends to decrease the probability of occurrence of a systemic banking crisis. I went further and did several robustness tests – used a conditional probit model, tested for different durations of liberalization impact and reduced the sample by considering only the first crisis event for each country. Main results still verified, proving the results’ robustness.

Ethical leadership and unethical pro-organizational behavior: A moderated mediation model of affective commitment and authenticity at work

Recently, unethical conduct in the workplace has been a focus of literature and media. Unethical pro-organizational behavior (UPB) refers to unethical conduct that employees engage in to benefit the organization. Given the complexity of UPB, there is an increasing need to understand how and under what conditions this attitude originates within organizations. Based on a sample of 167 employees and seven organizations, results support the moderated mediation model. An ethical leader increases employees’ organizational affective commitment which increases the likelihood to engage in UPB. However, the indirect relationship diminishes when employees feel authentic at work.

The firm delocalization decision

In the current paper, the determinants of firm international relocation decision in twenty-six European countries during the period 2004-2014 are analyzed. We demonstrate, at light of three different but complementary theories that neoclassical, behavioural and institutional „push‟ factors have an impact in a firm decision-making process. Findings support that firm size, access to a global network, foreign capital, and negative internal growth in the workforce induce firm relocation. On the other hand, the degree of sunk assets has a negative effect on the probability of relocation. Delocalization decisions are also sector-dependent with low-tech manufacturing firms paying high salaries relocating abroad with a greater likelihood.

Fiscal adjustments and sovereign default in different government systems

This paper extends the model of Spolaore (2004) about adjustments in di erent government systems for the context of scal adjustments and sovereign default. We introduce asymmetry between groups in income and preferences towards scal reforms. Default a ects di erently each group and becomes a possibility if reforms are not enacted after public nance solvency shocks, in uencing the political game according to its likelihood. With the extensions, new situations which were not possible with the previous framework arise. After the exposition of the model, the Argentine default in 2001 provides an example of the political con icts addressed by the model.

Stress relacionado com o trabalho e motivação para a cessação tabágica: um obstáculo?: Estudo exploratório de uma amostra de vendedores fumadores

RESUMO - O tabagismo surge como a primeira causa evitável de doença, incapacidade e morte prematura em países desenvolvidos. Dentre os fatores influenciadores do comportamento face ao consumo de tabaco, a influência dos fatores de stress no local de trabalho foi alvo de diversos estudos com resultados mistos, revelando uma evidência empírica inconclusiva. Foi feito um estudo exploratório, transversal, que visou verificar a existência de associação entre algum dos fatores de stress no trabalho, nomeadamente 1) requisitos no trabalho, 2) autoridade decisória, 3) discriminação de tarefas, 4) condições de emprego, 5) apoio dos chefes e colegas, 6) número de horas de trabalho e 7) satisfação com o trabalho; com a motivação para a cessação tabágica. A amostra contou com 95 vendedores de bens de consumo alimentar, fumadores. Foi aplicado um questionário com variáveis sociodemográficas, variáveis de caracterização do comportamento face ao consumo de tabaco, o Teste de Richmond, variáveis de caracterização profissional e o Questionário Sobre Stress no Local de Trabalho. O Questionário Sobre o Stress no Local de Trabalho revelou uma validade insuficiente para a caracterização da maioria dos fatores de stress em estudo, manifestada por α de Cronbach muito baixos, pelo que a análise de associação apenas foi realizada entre os fatores de stress 1) apoio dos chefes e colegas, 2) número de horas de trabalho e 3) satisfação com o trabalho; e a motivação para a cessação tabágica. Para níveis de significância de 10%, o número de horas de trabalho apresentou uma associação positiva estatisticamente significativa com a motivação para a cessação tabágica, duplicando a probabilidade da sua ocorrência [OR = 2,429 (IC95%: 0,945 – 6,240)]. Em toda a análise de dados realizada foi prevalente a baixa motivação para a cessação tabágica dos vendedores, independentemente da variação dos fatores de stress relacionados com o trabalho.

Socio-demographic correlates of physical activity of European adults: A cross-sectional study from the European Social Survey

ABSTRACT - Background: From a public health perspective, the study of socio-demographic factors related to physical activity is important in order to identify subgroups for intervention programs. Purpose: This study also aimed to identify the prevalence and the socio-demographic correlates related with the achievement of recommended physical activity levels. Methods: Using data from the European Social Survey round 6, physical activity and socio-demographic characteristics were collected from 39278 European adults (18271 men, 21006 women), aged 18-64 years, from 28 countries in 2012. Meeting physical activity guidelines was assessed using World Health Organization criteria. Results: 64.50% (63.36% men, 66.49% women) attained physical activity recommended levels. The likelihood of attaining physical activity recommendations was higher in age group of 55-64 years (men: OR=1.22, p<0.05; women: OR=1.66, p<0.001), among those who had completed high school (men: OR=1.28, p<0.01; women: OR=1.26, p<0.05), among those who lived in rural areas (men: OR=1.20, p<0.001; women: OR=1.10, p<0.05), and among those who had 3 or more people living at home (men: OR=1.40, p<0.001; women: OR=1.43, p<0.001). On the other hand, attaining physical activity recommendations was negatively associated with being unemployed (men: OR=0.70, p<0.001; women: OR=0.87, p<0.05), being a student (men: OR=0.56, p<0.001; women: OR=0.64, p<0.01), being a retired person (men: OR=0.86, p<0.05) and with having a higher household income (OR=0.80, p<0.001; women: OR=0.81, p<0.01). Conclusion: This research helped clarify that, as the promotion of physical activity is critical to sustain health and prevent disease, socio-demographic factors are important to consider when planning the increase of physical activity.