Support in decision-making under uncertainty: a project risk assessment tool development and supplementary advances

A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.

Foresight exercises as a tool for decision-making: the example of two case studies in health

Based on the report for the unit “Foresight Methods Analysis” of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment at the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, under the supervision of Prof. Dr. António B. Moniz

Relatório de estágio no Centro de Arbitragem Comercial da Câmara de Comércio e Indústria Portuguesa

This report is the outcome of an internship that took place in Centro de Arbitragem Comercial da Câmara de Comércio e Indústria Portuguesa and its completion is an essential part of the path towards obtaining the Master’s Degree in Faculdade de Direito da Universidade Nova de Lisboa. This report has been structured in two stages – firstly, the presentation of the Centro de Arbitragem Comercial, focusing on its field of expertise, organic structure, principles and advantages. Then, the description of the activities developed within the Secretariat over the several stages of the arbitration procedure – since the reception of the arbitration requirement in institutional proceedings, terms of reference in ad hoc procedures, through the monitoring of the arbitral tribunal sessions (preliminary hearings, submission of evidence and final allegations) and the notification of the arbitration award. The second stage of this report is related to the description of the functions and powers of the President of Centro de Arbitragem Comercial. Firstly, it defines those powers by analyzing the statutes and rules of proceedings of the Centro de Arbitragem, drawing comparisons between the above mention and the rules of proceedings of others arbitral institutional centres, some of them are international references. The report assesses and describes the presidential powers, such as: configuration and composition of the arbitral tribunal (including arbitrator’s replacements, excuses and refusals); deadline extensions; determination of procedural rules and decision-making on any procedural incidents which arise before the constitution of the arbitral tribunal; definition of arbitration costs and fees; joinder of parties and consolidation of proceedings admission; and appointment of an emergency arbitrator. Lastly, this report analyzes some decisions delivered by the President in the respective institutional procedures which took place in the Centre.

Knowledge management framework based on brain models and human physiology

The life of humans and most living beings depend on sensation and perception for the best assessment of the surrounding world. Sensorial organs acquire a variety of stimuli that are interpreted and integrated in our brain for immediate use or stored in memory for later recall. Among the reasoning aspects, a person has to decide what to do with available information. Emotions are classifiers of collected information, assigning a personal meaning to objects, events and individuals, making part of our own identity. Emotions play a decisive role in cognitive processes as reasoning, decision and memory by assigning relevance to collected information. The access to pervasive computing devices, empowered by the ability to sense and perceive the world, provides new forms of acquiring and integrating information. But prior to data assessment on its usefulness, systems must capture and ensure that data is properly managed for diverse possible goals. Portable and wearable devices are now able to gather and store information, from the environment and from our body, using cloud based services and Internet connections. Systems limitations in handling sensorial data, compared with our sensorial capabilities constitute an identified problem. Another problem is the lack of interoperability between humans and devices, as they do not properly understand human’s emotional states and human needs. Addressing those problems is a motivation for the present research work. The mission hereby assumed is to include sensorial and physiological data into a Framework that will be able to manage collected data towards human cognitive functions, supported by a new data model. By learning from selected human functional and behavioural models and reasoning over collected data, the Framework aims at providing evaluation on a person’s emotional state, for empowering human centric applications, along with the capability of storing episodic information on a person’s life with physiologic indicators on emotional states to be used by new generation applications.

Decision-making process of Nova Executivos’ students

Field lab: Consumer insights

Importance of decision-making in a purchasing context – DPS Case Study

This work project has the objective of exploring the importance of making good decisions on supplier selection, so that the purchasing department can contribute to the success of a company. For that it is presented a short bibliography review of the latest insights that were found relevant, on the subjects of purchasing, technology, outsourcing, supplier selection and decision-making techniques. For a better understating on how to deal with a decision-making situation, a case study is also presented: Digital Printing Solutions (DPS) is a Portuguese company that provides complete and integrated printing solutions and has been planning to contract a software supplier. DPS has no formal supplier-selection model and it has to choose between 2 suppliers. The case study was solved using the M-MACBETH software. I have found that complex decisions-making situations can be easily overcome by using the M-MACBETH decision model. Moreover, the usage of a model, instead of decision that follows no formal procedure, provides the decision maker with insights that can be useful to negotiate with the supplier.

How to improve consumer decision skills in children? A case study of an intervention with institutionalized children

The aim of this study is to assess the institutionalized children’s skills as consumers but also to assess how we can improve their knowledge through an intervention. The sample was composed of two subgroups (38 institutionalized children and 36 non-institutionalized children). In order to assess children’s knowledge, a questionnaire and an interview were used. The method used as intervention was a 30-minute class. Results suggested that institutionalized children have lower levels of knowledge regarding consumption-related practices and lower levels of accuracy at estimating prices than non-institutionalized children. However, results also showed that the attitudes of institutionalized children towards advertising and making decisions based on price/quantity evaluation or based on the use of the same strategy in different situations are not significantly different from the non-institutionalized children. Regarding the intervention, it was possible to conclude that one class is not the best method to improve children’s knowledge. Institutionalized children need a longer and more practical intervention.

Characterization of an OPCPA laser amplifier based on the nonlinear crystal YCOB

The work described in this thesis was performed at the Laboratory for Intense Lasers (L2I) of Instituto Superior Técnico, University of Lisbon (IST-UL). Its main contribution consists in the feasibility study of the broadband dispersive stages for an optical parametric chirped pulse amplifier based on the nonlinear crystal yttrium calcium oxi-borate (YCOB). In particular, the main goal of this work consisted in the characterization and implementation of the several optical devices involved in pulse expansion and compression of the amplified pulses to durations of the order of a few optical cycles (20 fs). This type of laser systems find application in fields such as medicine, telecommunications and machining, which require high energy, ultrashort (sub-100 fs) pulses. The main challenges consisted in the preliminary study of the performance of the broadband amplifier, which is essential for successfully handling pulses with bandwidths exceeding 100 nm when amplified from the μJ to 20 mJ per pulse. In general, the control, manipulation and characterization of optical phenomena on the scale of a few tens of fs and powers that can reach the PW level are extremely difficult and challenging due to the complexity of the phenomena of radiation-matter interaction and their nonlinearities, observed at this time scale and power level. For this purpose the main dispersive components were characterized in detail, specifically addressing the demonstration of pulse expansion and compression. The tested bandwidths are narrower than the final ones, in order to confirm the parameters of these elements and predict the performance for the broadband pulses. The work performed led to additional tasks such as a detailed characterization of laser oscillator seeding the laser chain and the detection and cancelling of additional sources of dispersion.

Unravelling the role of alpha 2,6 sialic acid on mouse dentritic cells functions

RESUMO: As células dendríticas (CDs) são fundamentais na imunomodulação e iniciação de respostas imunes adaptativas, enquanto os ácidos siálicos (Sias) são potenciais imunomoduladores. Estas células expressam níveis elevados da sialiltransferase ST6Gal-1, que transfere Sias para a posição terminal de oligossacáridos. De facto, a maturação de CDs está associada a uma diminuição da sialilação na sua superfície celular. Apesar de ter função biológica desconhecida, a forma solúvel, extracelular de ST6Gal-1 aumenta em cancros e inflamação. Ainda assim, esta foi recentemente identificada como moduladora da hematopoiese. Considerando o importante papel das CDs na iniciação de respostas anticancerígenas, uma ligação entre a sialilação extrínseca induzida por ST6Gal-1 extracelular e o seu papel na modulação de CDs deve ser identificada. Neste trabalho hipotetizou-se que a sialilação α2,6 extrínseca de CDs diminui o seu perfil de maturação mediante ativação por lipopolissacarídeo (LPS). O objetivo principal foi sialilar extrinsecamente em α2,6 CDs da medula óssea de murganhos, avaliando os seus perfis de maturação e de libertação de citocinas, após estimulação com LPS (por Citometria de Fluxo e ELISA, respetivamente). Ao contrário da hipótese, o perfil celular não foi modulado, usando várias abordagens. Por outro lado, a consequência da falta de α2,6 Sias na maturação de CDs foi avaliada analisando: 1) CDs da medula óssea de murganhos tratadas com sialidase, 2) CDs da medula óssea e 3) CDs das vias aéreas, ambas de murganhos deficientes em ST6Gal-1, comparando com a estirpe selvagem. Estes resultados sugerem que a perta total de α2,6 Sias se relaciona com o aumento da expressão do complexo de histocompatibilidade principal de classe II. Apesar de controverso, é provável existirem mecanismos inerentes à ativação por LPS, reduzindo a eficácia de ST6Gal-1 extracelular. Por outro lado, a modificação no perfil de CDs de murganhos deficientes em ST6Gal-1 poderá relacionar-se com uma predisposição para um estado inflamatório severo. Com isto, o trabalho desenvolvido abriu futuras linhas de investigação, nomeadamente explorar outros fatores envolvidos na (de)sialilação α2,6 de CDs, podendo ter impacto em imunoterapia com uso de CDs.--------------------------ABSTRACT: Dendritic cells (DCs) are vital for immunomodulation and the initiation of adaptive immune responses, whereas sialic acids (Sias) are potential immunomodulators. These cells express high levels of sialyltransferase ST6Gal-1, responsible for transferring Sias to the terminal position of oligosaccharide chains. Indeed, DCs’ maturation is associated with decreased cell surface sialylation. Although its biological significance is unknown, the soluble, extracellular form of ST6Gal-1 increases in cancers and inflammation. However, extracellular ST6Gal-1 was recently identified as modulator of hematopoiesis. Considering that DCs play a crucial role in the initiation of a productive anti-cancer immune response, a link between extrinsic sialylation by the extracellular ST6Gal-1 on DC function needs to be investigated. We hypothesize that extrinsic α2,6 sialylation of DCs diminishes their maturation features upon lipopolysaccharide (LPS) stimulation. The main goal was to extrinsically α2,6 sialylate mice bone marrow derived DCs (BMDCs) and to evaluate their maturation and cytokine profiles upon LPS stimulation (by Flow Cytometry and ELISA, respectively). Unlike the hypothesis, we observed that BMDCs’ profile is not modulated, even using several approaches. In contrast, the consequence of lacking cell surface α2,6 Sias in DC maturation was assessed by analysing: 1) sialidase treated BMDCs, 2) BMDCs from mice lacking ST6Gal-1 and 3) DCs from mice airways, comparing wild type with ST6Gal-1 knockout mice. These results suggest that overall lack in α2,6 Sias is related with increased expression of major histocompatibility class II (MHC-II). Although appearing to be controversial findings, other intracellular mechanisms might be occurring upon LPS-induced BMDC activation, probably reducing extracellular ST6Gal-1 effect. In opposite, the modification observed in DC profile of ST6Gal-1 knockout mice might be related to its predisposition to a more severe inflammatory status. With this, the developed work opened future lines of investigation, namely exploring other factors involved in α2,6 (de)sialylation of DC, which might have influence in immunotherapy using DCs.

Challenges of converting nonprofit in for-profit-reasons decision making and key success factores of a conversion

Due to external constraints (opposed by the market and legal system) and internal changes nonprofit organizations have been converting to for-profit entities combining commercial revenue and social value creation. To create an understanding of the conversion process considering its challenges, the reasons, the decision-making process and key success factors of a conversion are examined. Therefore, a two-step research procedure is used combining literature research and a multiple case study approach based on expert interviews with known companies. The outcome is a helpful guideline (including a decision matrix) for social entrepreneurs that might face a conversion.

The firm delocalization decision

In the current paper, the determinants of firm international relocation decision in twenty-six European countries during the period 2004-2014 are analyzed. We demonstrate, at light of three different but complementary theories that neoclassical, behavioural and institutional „push‟ factors have an impact in a firm decision-making process. Findings support that firm size, access to a global network, foreign capital, and negative internal growth in the workforce induce firm relocation. On the other hand, the degree of sunk assets has a negative effect on the probability of relocation. Delocalization decisions are also sector-dependent with low-tech manufacturing firms paying high salaries relocating abroad with a greater likelihood.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Fostering e-participation sustainability through a BPM-driven semantic model

According to a recent Eurobarometer survey (2014), 68% of Europeans tend not to trust national governments. As the increasing alienation of citizens from politics endangers democracy and welfare, governments, practitioners and researchers look for innovative means to engage citizens in policy matters. One of the measures intended to overcome the so-called democratic deficit is the promotion of civic participation. Digital media proliferation offers a set of novel characteristics related to interactivity, ubiquitous connectivity, social networking and inclusiveness that enable new forms of societal-wide collaboration with a potential impact on leveraging participative democracy. Following this trend, e-Participation is an emerging research area that consists in the use of Information and Communication Technologies to mediate and transform the relations among citizens and governments towards increasing citizens’ participation in public decision-making. However, despite the widespread efforts to implement e-Participation through research programs, new technologies and projects, exhaustive studies on the achieved outcomes reveal that it has not yet been successfully incorporated in institutional politics. Given the problems underlying e-Participation implementation, the present research suggested that, rather than project-oriented efforts, the cornerstone for successfully implementing e-Participation in public institutions as a sustainable added-value activity is a systematic organisational planning, embodying the principles of open-governance and open-engagement. It further suggested that BPM, as a management discipline, can act as a catalyst to enable the desired transformations towards value creation throughout the policy-making cycle, including political, organisational and, ultimately, citizen value. Following these findings, the primary objective of this research was to provide an instrumental model to foster e-Participation sustainability across Government and Public Administration towards a participatory, inclusive, collaborative and deliberative democracy. The developed artefact, consisting in an e-Participation Organisational Semantic Model (ePOSM) underpinned by a BPM-steered approach, introduces this vision. This approach to e-Participation was modelled through a semi-formal lightweight ontology stack structured in four sub-ontologies, namely e-Participation Strategy, Organisational Units, Functions and Roles. The ePOSM facilitates e-Participation sustainability by: (1) Promoting a common and cross-functional understanding of the concepts underlying e-Participation implementation and of their articulation that bridges the gap between technical and non-technical users; (2) Providing an organisational model which allows a centralised and consistent roll-out of strategy-driven e-Participation initiatives, supported by operational units dedicated to the execution of transformation projects and participatory processes; (3) Providing a standardised organisational structure, goals, functions and roles related to e-Participation processes that enhances process-level interoperability among government agencies; (4) Providing a representation usable in software development for business processes’ automation, which allows advanced querying using a reasoner or inference engine to retrieve concrete and specific information about the e-Participation processes in place. An evaluation of the achieved outcomes, as well a comparative analysis with existent models, suggested that this innovative approach tackling the organisational planning dimension can constitute a stepping stone to harness e-Participation value.

Analysis of a controversial decision process: the case of the pumped hydro storage power plant Atdorf in Germany

Based on the report for the unit “Métodos Interactivos de Participação e Decisão A” (Interactive methods of participation and decision A), coordinated by Prof. Lia Maldonado Teles de Vasconcelos and Prof. Nuno Miguel Ribeiro Videira Costa. This unit was provided for the PhD Program in Technology Assessment in 2015/2016.