Comparative analysis of multicriteria decision making methods

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Vodacom Group: Equity research

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

How reporting and controlling systems can be effectively designed to support the decision-making process: The case of a Software SME

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Uncertainty, generalization, and neural representation of relevant variables for decision making

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology, Computational Biology.

UNCERTAINTY AND DECISION-MAKING IN THE HUMAN BRAIN

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology, Neuroscience

Evolution of Diplodocid Sauropod dinosaurs with emphasis on specimens from Howe Ranch, Wyoming (USA)

Diplodocidae are among the best known sauropod dinosaurs. Several species were described in the late 1800s or early 1900s. Since then, numerous additional specimens were recovered in the USA, Tanzania, Portugal, as well as possibly Spain, England, and Asia. To date, the clade includes about 12 to 15 different species, some of them with questionable taxonomic status (e.g. ‘Diplodocus’ hayi or Dyslocosaurus polyonychius). However, intrageneric relationships of the multi-species, iconic genera Apatosaurus and Diplodocus are still poorly known. The way to resolve this issue is a specimen-based phylogenetic analysis, which was done for Apatosaurus, but is here performed for the first time for the entire clade of Diplodocidae. New material from different localities and stratigraphic levels on the Howe Ranch (Shell,Wyoming, USA) sheds additional light on the evolution of Diplodocidae. Three new specimens are described herein, considerably increasing our knowledge of the anatomy of the group. The new specimens (SMA 0004, SMA 0011, and SMA 0087) represent two, to possibly three new diplodocid species. They preserve material from all parts of the skeleton, including two nearly complete skulls, as well as fairly complete manus and pedes, material which is generally rare in diplodocids. Thereby, they considerably increase anatomical overlap between the sometimes fragmentary holotype specimens of the earlier described diplodocid species, allowing for significant results in a specimenbased phylogenetic analysis. Furthermore, clavicles and interclavicles are identified, the latter for the first time in dinosaurs. Their presence seems restricted to early sauropods, flagellicaudatans, and early Macronaria, and might thus be a retained plesiomorphy, with the loss of these bones being synapomorphic for Titanosauriformes and possibly Rebbachisauridae. The new material allows to test previous hypotheses of diplodocid phylogeny. In order to do so, any type specimen previously proposed to belong to Diplodocidae was included in the study, as are relatively complete referred specimens, in order to increase the degree of overlapping material. For specimens subsequently suggested to be non-diplodocid sauropods, their hypothesized sister taxa were included as outgroups. The current phylogenetic analysis thus includes 76 operational taxonomic units, 45 of which belong to Diplodocidae. The specimens were scored for 477 morphological characters, representing one of the most extensive phylogenetic analyses done within sauropod dinosaurs. The resulting cladogram recovers the classical arrangement of diplodocid relationships. Basing on a newly developed numerical approach to reduce subjectivity in the decision of specific or generic separation, species that have historically been included into well-known genera like Apatosaurus or Diplodocus, were detected to be actually generically different. Thereby, the famous genus Brontosaurus is resuscitated, and evidence further suggests that also Elosaurus parvus (previously referred to Apatosaurus) or ‘Diplodocus’ hayi represent unique genera. The study increases our knowledge about individual variation, and helps to decide how to score multi-species genera. Such a specimen-based phylogenetic analysis thus proves a valuable tool to validate historic species in sauropods, and in paleontology as a whole.

Implementation of a pilot project for the treatment and prevention of substance abuse in children and adolescents : strengthening families for parents and youths 12-16

RESUMO: Antecendentes: Uma avaliação dos serviços de abuso de substâncias em Barbados identificou a necessidade de programas e serviços que são projetados especificamente para crianças e adolescentes. Objetivo: Realizar programa com base em evidências para reduzir a incidência de abuso de drogas entre crianças e adolescentes por meio do fortalecimento da unidade familiar através de parentalidade positiva, de maior funcionamento familiar e de resistência dos jovens. Método: Dois projetos-piloto foram realizadas com base no programa "Fortalecer as Famílias para Pais e Jovens de 12 a 16 anos (SFPY). O programa de nove semanas foi empregado como uma intervenção para criar laços familiares mais fortes, aumentar a resistência dos jovens e reduzir o abuso de drogas entre crianças e adolescentes de idades de 11 a 16 anos. A decisão foi tomada para incluir participantes de 11 anos desde que as crianças possam estar no primeiro ano da escola secundária nessa idade. IMPLEMENTATION OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE PILOT PROJECT FOR CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS 5 Resultados: Quinze famílias participaram em dois projetos-piloto e a avaliação final mostrou que os jovens após o programa, geralmente tornaram-se mais positivos sobre o seu lugar na unidade familiar e sentiram que sua participação no programa foi benéfica. Os pais, da mesma forma, relataram que eles conquistaram, com o programa uma relação mais positiva, uma melhor compreensão das necessidades, e consciência das mudanças de desenvolvimento de seus jovens. Desta forma, considera-se que o programa atingiu o resultado desejado de criar unidades familiares mais fortes. Conclusão: O Projeto Piloto “SFPY” foi bem sucedido em fazer pais e jovens mais conscientes de suas necessidades individuais e de responsabilidades dentro da unidade familiar. Como resultado, o relacionamentos das respectivas famílias melhorou. Estudos baseados em evidências têm demonstrado que um relação familiar mais forte diminui a incidência de uso e abuso de drogas na população adolescente, aumentando os fatores de proteção e diminuindo os fatores de risco. A implementação do programa, que foi desenvolvido e testado no ambiente norte-americano, demonstrou que era transferível para a sociedade de Barbados. No entanto, seu impacto total só pode ser determinado através de um estudo comparativo envolvendo um grupo de controle e / ou uma intervenção alternativa ao abuso de substâncias. Portanto, é recomendável que um estudo comparativo da intervenção SFPY deve envolver uma amostra representativa de adolescentes que estão em estágio de desenvolvimento anterior mais cedo. Evidências já demonstram que o programa é mais eficaz, com impacto mais longo sobre os jovens que participam em uma idade maisABSTRACT:Background: An evaluation of substance abuse services in Barbados has identified the need for programmes and services that are specifically designed for children and adolescents. Aim: To conduct an evidence-based programme to reduce the incidence of substance abuse among children and adolescents by strengthening the family unit through positive parenting, enhanced family functioning and youth resilience. Method: Two pilot projects were conducted based on the ‘Strengthening Families for Parents and Youths 12– 16’ (SFPY) programme. The nine-week programme was employed as an intervention to create stronger family connections, increase youth resiliency and reduce drug abuse among children and adolescents between the ages of 11 to 16. The decision was made to include participants from age 11 since children may be in the first year of secondary school at this age. IMPLEMENTATION OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE PILOT PROJECT FOR CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS 3 Results: Fifteen families participated in two pilot projects and an evaluation conducted at the conclusion showed that the youth were generally more positive about their perceived place in the family unit and felt that the being in the programme was generally beneficial. The parents similarly reported they had a more positive relationship with their youths and also had a better understanding of their needs, and an awareness of their developmental changes. This affirmed that the programme had achieved its desired outcome to create stronger family units. Conclusion: The SFPY Pilot Project was successful in making parents and youths more aware of their individual needs and responsibilities within the family unit. As a result relationships within their respective families were strengthened. Evidence-based studies have shown that enhanced family functioning decreases the incidence of substance use and abuse in the adolescent population by increasing protective factors and decreasing risk factors. The implementation of the programme, which was developed and tested in the North American environment, demonstrated that it was transferable to the Barbadian society. However, its full impact can only be determined through a comparative study involving a control group and/or an alternative substance abuse intervention. It is therefore recommended that a comparative study of the SFPY intervention should be delivered to a representative sample of adolescents who are at an earlier developmental stage. Evidence has shown that the programme is more effective, with longer impact on youths who participate at a younger age.

Interactive spatial decision support for sustainable agroforestry management: a case study in East Kalimantan, Indonesia

Forest managers, stakeholders and investors want to be able to evaluate economic, environmental and social benefits in order to improve the outcomes of their decisions and enhance sustainable forest management. This research developed a spatial decision support system that provides: (1) an approach to identify the most beneficial locations for agroforestry projects based on the biophysical properties and evaluate its economic, social and environmental impact; (2) a tool to inform prospective investors and stakeholders of the potential and opportunities for integrated agroforestry management; (3) a simulation environment that enables evaluation via a dashboard with the opportunity to perform interactive sensitivity analysis for key parameters of the project; (4) a 3D interactive geographic visualization of the economic, environmental and social outcomes, which facilitate understanding and eases planning. Although the tool and methodology presented are generic, a case study was performed in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. For the whole study area, it was simulated the most suitable location for three different plantation schemes: monoculture of timber, a specific recipe (cassava, banana and sugar palm) and different recipes per geographic unit. The results indicate that a mixed cropping plantation scheme, with different recipes applied to the most suitable location returns higher economic, environmental and social benefits.

The use of analytical hierarchy process in spatial decision support system for land use management

Geographic information systems give us the possibility to analyze, produce, and edit geographic information. Furthermore, these systems fall short on the analysis and support of complex spatial problems. Therefore, when a spatial problem, like land use management, requires a multi-criteria perspective, multi-criteria decision analysis is placed into spatial decision support systems. The analytic hierarchy process is one of many multi-criteria decision analysis methods that can be used to support these complex problems. Using its capabilities we try to develop a spatial decision support system, to help land use management. Land use management can undertake a broad spectrum of spatial decision problems. The developed decision support system had to accept as input, various formats and types of data, raster or vector format, and the vector could be polygon line or point type. The support system was designed to perform its analysis for the Zambezi river Valley in Mozambique, the study area. The possible solutions for the emerging problems had to cover the entire region. This required the system to process large sets of data, and constantly adjust to new problems’ needs. The developed decision support system, is able to process thousands of alternatives using the analytical hierarchy process, and produce an output suitability map for the problems faced.

Popular music exhibitions in Portugal: practices of representation from 2007 to 2013

This thesis focuses on the representation of Popular Music in museums by mapping, analyzing, and characterizing its practices in Portugal at the beginning of the 21st century. Now that museums' ability to shape public discourse is acknowledged, the examination of popular music's discourses in museums is of the utmost importance for Ethnomusicology and Popular Music Studies as well as for Museum Studies. The concept of 'heritage' is at the heart of this processes. The study was designed with the aim of moving the exhibiting of popular music in museums forward through a qualitative inquiry of case studies. Data collection involved surveying pop-rock music exhibitions as a qualitative sampling of popular music exhibitions in Portugal from 2007 to 2013. Two of these exhibitions were selected as case studies: No Tempo do Gira-Discos: Um Percurso pela Produção Fonográfica Portuguesa at the Museu da Música in Lisbon in 2007 (also Faculdade de Letras, 2009), and A Magia do Vinil, a Música que Mudou a Sociedade at the Oficina da Cultura in Almada in 2008 (and several other venues, from 2009 to 2013). Two specific domains were observed: popular music exhibitions as instances of museum practice and museum professionals. The first domain encompasses analyzing the types of objects selected for exhibition; the interactive museum practices fostered by the exhibitions; the concepts and narratives used to address popular music discursively, as well as the interpretative practices they allow. The second domain, focuses museum professionals and curators of popular music exhibitions as members of a group, namely their goals, motivations and perspectives. The theoretical frameworks adopted were drawn from the fields of ethnomusicology, popular music studies, and museum studies. The written materials of the exhibitions were subjected of methods of discourse analysis methods. Semi-structured interviews with curators and museum professional were also conducted and analysed. From the museum studies perspective, the study research suggests that the practice adopted by popular music museums largely matches that of conventional museums. From the ethnomusicological and popular music studies stand point, the two case studies reveal two distinct conceptual worlds: the first exhibition, curated by an academic and an independent researcher, points to a mental configuration where popular music is explained through a framework of genres supported by different musical practices. Moreover, it is industry actors such as decision makers and gatekeepers that govern popular music, which implies that the visitors' romantic conception of the musician is to some extent dismantled; the second exhibition, curated by a record collector and specialist, is based on a more conventional process of the everyday historical speech that encodes a mismatch between “good” and “bad music”. Data generated by a survey shows that only one curator, in fact that of my first case study, has an academic background. The backgrounds of all the others are in some way similar to the curator of the second case study. Therefore, I conclude that the second case study best conveys the current practice of exhibiting Popular Music in Portugal.

Support in decision-making under uncertainty: a project risk assessment tool development and supplementary advances

A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.

Foresight exercises as a tool for decision-making: the example of two case studies in health

Based on the report for the unit “Foresight Methods Analysis” of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment at the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, under the supervision of Prof. Dr. António B. Moniz

Zara: Marketing in Fast Fashion: A case-study

Zara was founded in 1975 by Amancio Ortega Gaona, soon becoming the largest and most successful chain of the Galician group Inditex (Industria de Diseño Textil) and a pioneer of the rising fashion category of Fast Fashion. Its innovative vertically-integrated strategies, combined with its emphasis on quality and demand-based offer have shaped the world of fashion and brought forth many questions on its future sustainability and growth. Zara has always relied on its store network for advertising its product offer; allowing its garments to “speak for themselves”. With the continued pressure felt in the industry, management has pressed some concerns about future company growth and creative, innovating solutions must be implemented to guarantee Zara’s future growth. The case-study narrative focuses on these issues and leaves readers with an open question regarding what decision to implement.

Key performance indicators and the balanced scorecard at the Luxury Brand Hotels of Pestana Group

Traditional approaches to evaluate performance in hotels, have mainly used financial measures. Building on Speckbacher et al. (2003), this Work Project aims to design and propose a Balanced Scorecard Type II as a performance measurement/management system for the hospitality industry based on data collected at the Luxury Brand Hotels of Pestana Group. The main contribution is to better align the vision, strategy and financial and non-financial performance measures in this category of hotels, in particular those of Pestana Group, and by doing so, lead their managers to focus on what is really critical and, consequently improve the overall performance.