Noise traders, rational traders, and the rest: A new approach to efficient financial markets

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Corporate finance in general equilibrium models with incomplete markets: A survey

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Carbon prices. Dynamic analysis of European and Californian markets

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Alterações Climáticas e Políticas de Desenvolvimento Sustentável

Tool for discovering sequential patterns in financial markets

The goal of this thesis is the study of a tool that can help analysts in finding sequential patterns. This tool will have a focus on financial markets. A study will be made on how new and relevant knowledge can be mined from real life information, potentially giving investors, market analysts, and economists new basis to make informed decisions. The Ramex Forum algorithm will be used as a basis for the tool, due to its ability to find sequential patterns in financial data. So that it further adapts to the needs of the thesis, a study of relevant improvements to the algorithm will be made. Another important aspect of this algorithm is the way that it displays the patterns found, even with good results it is difficult to find relevant patterns among all the studied samples without a proper result visualization component. As such, different combinations of parameterizations and ways to visualize data will be evaluated and their influence in the analysis of those patterns will be discussed. In order to properly evaluate the utility of this tool, case studies will be performed as a final test. Real information will be used to produce results and those will be evaluated in regards to their accuracy, interest, and relevance.

Flexible multivariate GARCH modeling with an application to international stock markets

This paper offers a new approach to estimating time-varying covariance matrices in the framework of the diagonal-vech version of the multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. Our method is numerically feasible for large-scale problems, produces positive semidefinite conditional covariance matrices, and does not impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empirical application in the context of international stock markets, comparing the nev^ estimator with a number of existing ones.

Assessing the community needs of mental health residential care service users in Republic of Moldova

RESUMO: Background: Problemas de saúde mental são um grande problema clínico e social na República da Moldávia, representando uma quota significante de deficiência, sendo classificada no top cinco das dez linhas na hierarquia das condições. A taxa de incidência tem sido crescente na República da Moldávia, atingindo cerca de 15.000 por ano (14,655 em 2011), ou seja, 411,4 por 100 mil habitantes, e uma taxa de prevalência de 97.525 pessoas em 2011, ou seja, 2,737.9 por 100 mil habitantes. Sistema de atendimento psiquiátrico fornece serviços de saúde mental escassos a nível da comunidade, visando principalmente terapia hospitalar, centralizada, através de uma rede de três hospitais psiquiátricos, com 1.860 camas e 4 sanatórios psico- neurológicos com 1890 camas, assim alimentando-se a estigmatização do paciente. Objetivos: O objetivo deste estudo foi a avaliação das necessidades individuais dos beneficiários e do seu nível de autonomia dentro de cuidados residenciais, para o planeamento de reformas de saúde mental e desinstitucionalização na República da Moldávia. Este estudo foi encomendado pelo Ministério do Trabalho, Proteção Social e da Família e pelo Ministério da Saúde, com o apoio da Organização Mundial da Saúde, para determinar o cumprimento eficaz do artigo 19 da Convenção da ONU. O estudo tem os seguintes objetivos: Avaliar o nível de autonomia dos residentes nos hospitais psiquiátricos e sanatórios psico-neurológico, usando uma amostra representativa de 10 por ce nto do número total de pacientes/residentes e comparação cruzada; Para avaliar quatro sanatórios psico-neurológicos para adultos e três hospitais psiquiátricos; Para desenvolver recomendações para o planeamento da desinstitucionalização das pessoas com problemas de saúde mental e colocação na comunidade com base nos resultados do estudo. Metodologia e resultados: O estudo fez uso de duas ferramentas globais: questionário para a avaliação individual dos residentes do estabelecimento de saúde mental, e questionário de avaliação institucional. Todos os entrevistados foram divididos em quatro categorias conforme com o grau de dependência e preparação de viver de forma independente na comunidade. Apenas 1,2% dos entrevistados de PNHB eram totalmente dependentes de terceiros ou serviços especializados, tornando-se a categoria 4, que necessitam de cuidados e apoio contínuo. No PH esta categoria de pessoas é ausente. Conclusões: A condição dos entrevistados foi pior em PNBH que em PH. No entanto, ainda, aqueles que estão prontos para ser desinstitucionalizados correspondem com a maior parte dos entrevistados. Todos os hospitais tinham o consentimento do utente para admissão e tratamento, enquanto não houve consentimento qualquer em PNBH. É bastante óbvio que tanto os hospitais como também a sistema de assistência residencial não atingem a sua finalidade, o que significa que a maioria dos utentes pode ser desinstitucionalizados, sem qualquer terapia de suporte.------------------ABSTRACT: Background: Mental health problems are a major clinical and social issue in the Republic of Moldova,accounting for a significant share of disability and ranking in top five of the ten lines in the hierarchy of conditions. The incidence rate has been growing in the Republic of Moldova to reach approximately 15 thousand a year (14,655 in 2011), i.e. 411.4 per 100 thousand population, and a prevalence rate of 97,525 thousand people in 2011, i.e. 2,737.9 per 100 thousand population. Psychiatric care system provides for scanty mental health services at community level, aiming mainly at centralized hospital-based therapy through a network of three psychiatric hospitals tallying up 1,860 beds and 4 psycho-neurological boarding houses with 1,890 beds, thus fuelling up patient stigmatization. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to assess the individual needs of beneficiaries and their level of autonomy within residential care for the planning of mental health system reforms and deinstitutionalization in the Republic of Moldova. This study was commissioned by the Ministry of Labour, Social Protection and Family and by the Ministry of Health, with the World Health Organization support, to provide for effective enforcement of article 19 of the UN CRPD. The study pursued the following goals: To evaluate the level of autonomy of the psychiatric hospital and psycho-neurological boarding house residents by using a representative sample of 10 per cent of the total number of patients / residents and cross-comparison; To evaluate four psycho-neurological boarding houses for adults and three psychiatric hospitals; To develop recommendations for planning the deinstitutionalization of people with mental health problems and community placement based on the study findings.Methodology and results: The study made use of two global tools: questionnaire for individual assessment of mental health facility residents, and institutional assessment questionnaire. All interviewees were divided into four categories by one’s degree of dependence and readiness to live independently in the community. Only 1.2% of respondents from PNHB were fully dependent on a third party or specialized services, making up category 4, requiring continuous care and support. In PH this category of people is absent.Conclusions: The condition of respondents was worse in PNBH than in PH. However, yet, those ready to be deinstitutionalized accounted for most of respondents there. All hospitals had the resident’s consent to admission and treatment, whereas there was no consent in PNBH whatsoever. It is quite obvious that both the hospitals and residential care system do not achieve their intended purpose, meaning that the majority of residents may be deinstitutionalized without any support therapy.

Financial depth, stock markets and economic growth in the EU-15 countries

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of financial depth on economic growth in the EU-15 countries from 1970 until 2012, using the two-step System GMM estimator. Even though it might be expected a positive impact, the results show it is negative and sometimes even negative and statistically significant. Among the reasons presented for this, the existence of banking crises seems to better explain these results. In tranquil periods, financial deepening appears to have a positive impact, whereas in banking crises it is persistently negative and statistically significant. Also, after an assessment of the impact of stock markets on economic growth, it appears that more developed countries in the EU-15 have an economy more reliant on this segment of the financial system rather than in bank intermediation.

Trading the differences in expectations between the CDS and bond markets

This paper uses the framework developed by Vrugt (2010) to extract the recovery rate and term-structure of risk-neutral default probabilities implied in the cross-section of Portuguese sovereign bonds outstanding between March and August 2011. During this period the expectations on the recovery rate remain firmly anchored around 50 percent while the instantaneous default probability increases steadily from 6 to above 30 percent. These parameters are then used to calculate the fair-value of a 5-year and 10- year CDS contract. A credit-risk-neutral strategy is developed from the difference between the market price of a CDS of the same tenors and the fair-value calculated, yielding a sharpe ratio of 3.2

The new economy: Essays in network economics and two-sided markets

Following the Introduction, which surveys existing literature on the technology advances and regulation in telecommunications and on two-sided markets, we address specific issues on the industries of the New Economy, featured by the existence of network effects. We seek to explore how each one of these industries work, identify potential market failures and find new solutions at the economic regulation level promoting social welfare. In Chapter 1 we analyze a regulatory issue on access prices and investments in the telecommunications market. The existing literature on access prices and investment has pointed out that networks underinvest under a regime of mandatory access provision with a fixed access price per end-user. We propose a new access pricing rule, the indexation approach, i.e., the access price, per end-user, that network i pays to network j is function of the investment levels set by both networks. We show that the indexation can enhance economic efficiency beyond what is achieved with a fixed access price. In particular, access price indexation can simultaneously induce lower retail prices and higher investment and social welfare as compared to a fixed access pricing or a regulatory holidays regime. Furthermore, we provide sufficient conditions under which the indexation can implement the socially optimal investment or the Ramsey solution, which would be impossible to obtain under fixed access pricing. Our results contradict the notion that investment efficiency must be sacrificed for gains in pricing efficiency. In Chapter 2 we investigate the effect of regulations that limit advertising airtime on advertising quality and on social welfare. We show, first, that advertising time regulation may reduce the average quality of advertising broadcast on TV networks. Second, an advertising cap may reduce media platforms and firms' profits, while the net effect on viewers (subscribers) welfare is ambiguous because the ad quality reduction resulting from a regulatory cap o¤sets the subscribers direct gain from watching fewer ads. We find that if subscribers are sufficiently sensitive to ad quality, i.e., the ad quality reduction outweighs the direct effect of the cap, a cap may reduce social welfare. The welfare results suggest that a regulatory authority that is trying to increase welfare via regulation of the volume of advertising on TV might necessitate to also regulate advertising quality or, if regulating quality proves impractical, take the effect of advertising quality into consideration. 3 In Chapter 3 we investigate the rules that govern Electronic Payment Networks (EPNs). In EPNs the No-Surcharge Rule (NSR) requires that merchants charge at most the same amount for a payment card transaction as for cash. In this chapter, we analyze a three- party model (consumers, merchants, and a proprietary EPN) with endogenous transaction volumes and heterogenous merchants' transactional benefits of accepting cards to assess the welfare impacts of the NSR. We show that, if merchants are local monopolists and the network externalities from merchants to cardholders are sufficiently strong, with the exception of the EPN, all agents will be worse o¤ with the NSR, and therefore the NSR is socially undesirable. The positive role of the NSR in terms of improvement of retail price efficiency for cardholders is also highlighted.

Price linkages in pharmaceutical markets

This paper studies the existing price linkage between generics and branded pharmaceuticals, in which the generic price must be a fraction of the latter. Using a vertical differentiation model, we look at the market equilibrium, the effects on the incentives for the brand producer to develop new products, and the possibility of predation by the brand producer over the generic firm. We find that the price linkage increases prices compared to no indexation and it may increase the incentives for the brand producer to expand its set of products. When prices are freely set, the branded firm may also want to expand a new product with a higher quality, but will prefer to remove the original one from the market. Predation may equally occur in both schemes but the price linkage may give fewer incentives for the branded firm to predate while compensating losses with a new drug.

The impact of credit conditions on market liquidity – a case for European stock markets

The recent financial crisis has drawn the attention of researchers and regulators to the importance of liquidity for stock market stability and efficiency. The ability of market-makers and investors to provide liquidity is constrained by the willingness of financial institutions to supply funding capital. This paper sheds light on the liquidity linkages between the Central Bank, Monetary Financial Institutions and market-makers as crucial elements to the well-functioning of markets. Results suggest the existence of causality between credit conditions and stock market liquidity for the Eurozone between 2003 and 2015. Similar evidence is found for the UK during the post-crisis period. Keywords: stock

Measuring spillover effects in Euro Area equity and bond markets

Since its inception, the Eurozone has experienced significant financial integration. However, with the recent turbulent period, the dynamics of this integration may have changed. This study analyses the volatility spillovers from the US and aggregate Eurozone markets into ten Euro Area national equity and bond markets, using a regime-switching model with shifting shock sensitivities. The evidence confirms an increased impact of shock spillover intensity after the 2008 crisis in the equity market and a decrease of the same parameters for the bond market. In both markets, the overall impact of the Eurozone is greater when compared to the U.S.

Money never sleeps – overnight returns in equity markets

The present research analyses overnight returns’ outperformance in relation to daytime returns. In a first stage, it will be assessed whether these returns are robust throughout time, markets and across different scopes of analysis (e.g. weekdays, months, states of the economy). In a second stage, several hypothesis will be empirically tested, in an attempt to understand what drives non-trading period returns (e.g. liquidity, market volatility). Even though several authors have analysed overnight returns and suggested several explanatory factors, there seems to be no consensus in the literature regarding its drivers.

Trading the changes of stock market index composition: Evidence from European markets

This paper studies the changes in European stock market indexes composition from 1995 to 2015. It was found that there are mixed price effects producing abnormal returns around the effective replacement of added and deleted stocks. The price pressure hypothesis seems to hold for added stocks in some indexes but not for deleted stocks as there is not a clear inversion of behaviour after the replacement. Finally, the building and back testing of a trading strategy aiming to capture some of those abnormal returns shows it yields a Sharpe Ratio of 1.4 and generates an annualised alpha of 11%.

Recensão: George Baker, “Late Criticism” in Canvases and Careers Today. Criticism and its Markets

Recensão de: George Baker, "'Late Criticism' in Canvases and Careers Today. Criticism and its Markets", Berlin: Sternberg Press, 2008