Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

Oi merger with Portugal Telecom: A strategic partnership

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Improving contact center cost efficiency and customer experience in a retail company

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Potential for ORC application in the Portuguese manufacturing industry

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, perfil Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

From Consciousness to Knowledge – The Explanatory Power of Revelation

Epistemology in philosophy of mind is a difficult endeavor. Those who believe that our phenomenal life is different from other domains suggest that self-knowledge about phenomenal properties is certain and therefore privileged. Usually, this so called privileged access is explained by the idea that we have direct access to our phenomenal life. This means, in contrast to perceptual knowledge, self-knowledge is non-inferential. It is widely believed that, this kind of directness involves two different senses: an epistemic sense and a metaphysical sense. Proponents of this view often claim that this is due to the fact that we are acquainted with our current experiences. The acquaintance thesis, therefore, is the backbone in justifying privileged access. Unfortunately the whole approach has a profound flaw. For the thesis to work, acquaintance has to be a genuine explanation. Since it is usually assumed that any knowledge relation between judgments and the corresponding objects are merely causal and contingent (e.g. in perception), the proponent of the privileged access view needs to show that acquaintance can do the job. In this thesis, however, I claim that the latter cannot be done. Based on considerations introduced by Levine, I conclude that this approach involves either the introduction of ontologically independent properties or a rather obscure knowledge relation. A proper explanation, however, cannot employ either of the two options. The acquaintance thesis is, therefore, bound to fail. Since the privileged access intuition seems to be vital to epistemology within the philosophy of mind, I will explore alternative justifications. After discussing a number of options, I will focus on the so called revelation thesis. This approach states that by simply having an experience with phenomenal properties, one is in the position to know the essence of those phenomenal properties. I will argue that, after finding a solution for the controversial essence claim, this thesis is a successful replacement explanation which maintains all the virtues of the acquaintance account without necessarily introducing ontologically independent properties or an obscure knowledge relation. The overall solution consists in qualifying the essence claim in the relevant sense, leaving us with an appropriate ontology for phenomenal properties. On the one hand, this avoids employing mysterious independent properties, since this ontological view is physicalist in nature. On the other hand, this approach has the right kind of structure to explain privileged self-knowledge of our phenomenal life. My final conclusion consists in the claim that the privileged access intuition is in fact veridical. It cannot, however, be justified by the popular acquaintance approach, but rather, is explainable by the controversial revelation thesis.

Context-based identification of energy consumption in industrial plants

Nowadays, reducing energy consumption is one of the highest priorities and biggest challenges faced worldwide and in particular in the industrial sector. Given the increasing trend of consumption and the current economical crisis, identifying cost reductions on the most energy-intensive sectors has become one of the main concerns among companies and researchers. Particularly in industrial environments, energy consumption is affected by several factors, namely production factors(e.g. equipments), human (e.g. operators experience), environmental (e.g. temperature), among others, which influence the way of how energy is used across the plant. Therefore, several approaches for identifying consumption causes have been suggested and discussed. However, the existing methods only provide guidelines for energy consumption and have shown difficulties in explaining certain energy consumption patterns due to the lack of structure to incorporate context influence, hence are not able to track down the causes of consumption to a process level, where optimization measures can actually take place. This dissertation proposes a new approach to tackle this issue, by on-line estimation of context-based energy consumption models, which are able to map operating context to consumption patterns. Context identification is performed by regression tree algorithms. Energy consumption estimation is achieved by means of a multi-model architecture using multiple RLS algorithms, locally estimated for each operating context. Lastly, the proposed approach is applied to a real cement plant grinding circuit. Experimental results prove the viability of the overall system, regarding both automatic context identification and energy consumption estimation.

A DSL for querying building data streams of energy, eeather and occupation data

The superfluous consumption of energy is faced by the modern society as a Socio-Economical and Environmental problem of the present days. This situation is worsening given that it is becoming clear that the tendency is to increase energy price every year. It is also noticeable that people, not necessarily proficient in technology, are not able to know where savings can be achieved, due to the absence of accessible awareness mechanisms. One of the home user concerns is to balance the need of reducing energy consumption, while producing the same activity with all the comfort and work efficiency. The common techniques to reduce the consumption are to use a less wasteful equipment, altering the equipment program to a more economical one or disconnecting appliances that are not necessary at the moment. However, there is no direct feedback from this performed actions, which leads to the situation where the user is not aware of the influence that these techniques have in the electrical bill. With the intension to give some control over the home consumption, Energy Management Systems (EMS) were developed. These systems allow the access to the consumption information and help understanding the energy waste. However, some studies have proven that these systems have a clear mismatch between the information that is presented and the one the user finds useful for his daily life, leading to demotivation of use. In order to create a solution more oriented towards the user’s demands, a specially tailored language (DSL) was implemented. This solution allows the user to acquire the information he considers useful, through the construction of questions about his energy consumption. The development of this language, following the Model Driven Development (MDD) approach, took into consideration the ideas of facility managers and home users in the phases of design and validation. These opinions were gathered through meetings with experts and a survey, which was conducted to the purpose of collecting statistics about what home users want to know.

The brushstroke and materials of Amadeo de Souza-Cardoso combined in an authentication tool

Nowadays, authentication studies for paintings require a multidisciplinary approach, based on the contribution of visual features analysis but also on characterizations of materials and techniques. Moreover, it is important that the assessment of the authorship of a painting is supported by technical studies of a selected number of original artworks that cover the entire career of an artist. This dissertation is concerned about the work of modernist painter Amadeo de Souza-Cardoso. It is divided in three parts. In the first part, we propose a tool based on image processing that combines information obtained by brushstroke and materials analysis. The resulting tool provides qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the authorship of the paintings; the quantitative element is particularly relevant, as it could be crucial in solving authorship controversies, such as judicial disputes. The brushstroke analysis was performed by combining two algorithms for feature detection, namely Gabor filter and Scale Invariant Feature Transform. Thanks to this combination (and to the use of the Bag-of-Features model), the proposed method shows an accuracy higher than 90% in distinguishing between images of Amadeo’s paintings and images of artworks by other contemporary artists. For the molecular analysis, we implemented a semi-automatic system that uses hyperspectral imaging and elemental analysis. The system provides as output an image that depicts the mapping of the pigments present, together with the areas made using materials not coherent with Amadeo’s palette, if any. This visual output is a simple and effective way of assessing the results of the system. The tool proposed based on the combination of brushstroke and molecular information was tested in twelve paintings obtaining promising results. The second part of the thesis presents a systematic study of four selected paintings made by Amadeo in 1917. Although untitled, three of these paintings are commonly known as BRUT, Entrada and Coty; they are considered as his most successful and genuine works. The materials and techniques of these artworks have never been studied before. The paintings were studied with a multi-analytical approach using micro-Energy Dispersive X-ray Fluorescence spectroscopy, micro-Infrared and Raman Spectroscopy, micro-Spectrofluorimetry and Scanning Electron Microscopy. The characterization of Amadeo’s materials and techniques used on his last paintings, as well as the investigation of some of the conservation problems that affect these paintings, is essential to enrich the knowledge on this artist. Moreover, the study of the materials in the four paintings reveals commonalities between the paintings BRUT and Entrada. This observation is supported also by the analysis of the elements present in a photograph of a collage (conserved at the Art Library of the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation), the only remaining evidence of a supposed maquete of these paintings. The final part of the thesis describes the application of the image processing tools developed in the first part of the thesis on a set of case studies; this experience demonstrates the potential of the tool to support painting analysis and authentication studies. The brushstroke analysis was used as additional analysis on the evaluation process of four paintings attributed to Amadeo, and the system based on hyperspectral analysis was applied on the painting dated 1917. The case studies therefore serve as a bridge between the first two parts of the dissertation.

How to improve Sonae's processes of suppliers of services' management?

Sonae is one of the greatest retailers in Portugal. As the business got bigger, it centralized operations. Direcção de Serviços Administrativos processes all invoices sent by suppliers. However, there are many which deliver errors and are not processed automatically. As a result, there are lost invoices and suppliers who are not paid, while the company’s accountability becomes less transparent. Such is due to a lack of proactive attitude towards suppliers as well as to a lack of incentives for employees to perform well. Great savings may be achieved with little effort, if the right things are measured so that the right tools may be applied.

Relatório de estágio na Axa Portugal

The present report has the goal of enunciating and exposing some of the main judicial subjects that were developed during the period of internship, coming forth in the form of answers to questions properly reformulated as not to injure the confidentiality of data available while in the process of making said report, they deal with different branches of the law, although with a special focus on the field of Insurance Law. It being an academic piece, it was of the utmost importance to focus more sharply on a specific theme, in casu, medical-civil responsibility, causing the interest in this matter due to the curricular internship and a case law research on the subject. The last chapter of this paper focuses mainly on the problematic of seizure by insurance intermediary’s commissions, credits from occupational accidents and illnesses and Retirement and Education Savings Plans (PPR/Es), this being one problematic with which I dealt directly in the early stages of the internship.

Managing marginal capital requirements in solvency II: Analysis of a real insurance portfolio

This thesis provides a complete analysis of the Standard Capital Requirements given by Solvency II for a real insurance portfolio. We analyze the investment portfolio of BPI Vida e Pensões, an insurance company affiliated with a Portuguese bank BPI, both at security, sub-portfolio and asset class levels. By using the Standard Formula from EIOPA, Total SCR amounts to 239M€. This value is mostly explained by Market and Default Risk whereas the former is driven by Spread and Concentration Risks. Following the methodology of Leblanc (2011), we examine the Marginal Contribution of an asset to the SCR which allows for the evaluation of the risks of each security given its characteristics and interactions in the portfolio. The top contributors to the SCR are Corporate Bonds and Term Deposits. By exploring further the composition of the portfolio, our results show that slight changes in allocation of Term and Cash Deposits have severe impacts on the total Concentration and Default Risks, respectively. Also, diversification effects are very relevant by representing savings of 122M€. Finally, Solvency II represents an opportunity for the portfolio optimization. By constructing efficient frontiers, we find that as the target expected return increases, a shift from Term Deposits/ Commercial Papers to Eurozone/Peripheral and finally Equities occurs.

Sustainable urban planning: parameters to the operational process

In modern society, energy consumption and respect for the environment have become essential aspects of urban planning. The rising demand for alternative sources of energy, coupled with the decline in the construction sector and material usage, gives the idea that the thinking on modern cities, where attention is given to reduced energy consumption, savings, waste recycling and respect for the surrounding environment, is being put into practice. If we examine development of the city over recent centuries, by means of the theories of the most famous and influential urban planners, it is possible to identify the major problems caused by this type of planning. For this reason, in recent urban planning the use of systems of indicators that evaluate and certify land environmentally and energetically guides the master plan toward a more efficient city model. In addition the indicators are targeted on key factors determined by the commissioner or the opportunities the territory itself provides. Due the complexity of the environmental mechanics, the process of design and urban planning has become a challenging issue. The introduction of the indicators system has made it possible to register the life of the process, with a spiral route that allows the design itself to be refined. The aim of this study, built around the creation of a system of urban sustainability indicators that will evaluate highly eco-friendly cities, is to develop a certification system for cities or portions of them. The system will be upgradeable and objective, will employ real data and will be concerned with energy production and consumption.

Uma cultura de segurança comum na UE através de um programa de formação europeu para as polícias

This master dissertation is to bring a contribution to the reflection on the need to strengthen cross-border cooperation, among the various entities applying the law with a view to building a European security culture through police training. On this basis, it proposes a reflection on the new security paradigm, focused on the demanding and informed security needs by the citizen due to an increasingly transnational crime throughout the different States. This development, coupled with globalization itself, led to the definition of strategies to gear the work of the police in preventing and combating new criminal phenomena such as the European Internal Security Strategy. However, without a true safety culture, which fosters trust among the various actors and ensures a coordinated and uniform action of the police, it will not be easy to achieve the desired effectiveness in protecting the fundamental rights that underpin European integration. Against this background, attempts to explain that the implementation of a common European training program for the police (LETS) is the way forward, with a view to a more effective security in the Union, based on values that embody a genuine European security culture, coveted by all, based on an idea of governance held at different levels of intervention, European, regional and national levels.

Overstock and stock-out in Volkswagen Autoeuropa

The following work is a case study of overstock and stock-out problems at Volkswagen Autoeuropa (VWAE). It introduces the supply chain of Autoeuropa and specializes then on failures connected to inventory problems. Having a successful supply chain is important in a world where products become more and more similar as it can give to companies an edge over their competitors. The case shows three practices that VWAE uses to prevent and to overcome stock problems. Information was gathered by doing interviews with different managers, by analyzing the company’s key processes and by literature research related to the topics of supply chain management and flexibility in the supply chain. Three practices were further investigated: the use of alternative parts, support of the supplier and a rating system of suppliers. In the question section of this work the importance of flexibility and Supplier Relationship Management (SRM) when connected to supply chain management are explained. The described different practices are numerically analyzed and it is concluded that each practice brings both cost savings and the possibility of achieving target numbers to the company, showing the company’s flexibility to react to supply chain disturbances. Because of confidentiality reasons, persons in the case are fictionalized and numbers are wherever possible equalized to 100 in order to display true proportions.

Avaliação económica em transplantação renal : abordagem estratégica do processo de doação e análise de custo-utilidade do programa de transplantação renal versus hemodiálise

SUMÁRIO - O desafio atual da Saúde Pública é assegurar a sustentabilidade financeira do sistema de saúde. Em ambiente de recursos escassos, as análises económicas aplicadas à prestação dos cuidados de saúde são um contributo para a tomada de decisão que visa a maximização do bem-estar social sujeita a restrição orçamental. Portugal é um país com 10,6 milhões de habitantes (2011) com uma incidência e prevalência elevadas de doença renal crónica estadio 5 (DRC5), respetivamente, 234 doentes por milhão de habitantes (pmh) e 1.600 doentes/pmh. O crescimento de doenças associadas às causas de DRC, nomeadamente, diabetes Mellitus e hipertensão arterial, antecipam uma tendência para o aumento do número de doentes. Em 2011, dos 17.553 doentes em tratamento substitutivo renal, 59% encontrava-se em programa de hemodiálise (Hd) em centros de diálise extra-hospitalares, 37% viviam com um enxerto renal funcionante e 4% estavam em diálise peritoneal (SPN, 2011). A lista ativa para transplante (Tx) renal registava 2.500 doentes (SPN 2009). O Tx renal é a melhor modalidade terapêutica pela melhoria da sobrevida, qualidade de vida e relação custo-efetividade, mas a elegibilidade para Tx e a oferta de órgãos condicionam esta opção. Esta investigação desenvolveu-se em duas vertentes: i) determinar o rácio custo-utilidade incremental do Tx renal comparado com a Hd; ii) avaliar a capacidade máxima de dadores de cadáver em Portugal, as características e as causas de morte dos dadores potenciais a nível nacional, por hospital e por Gabinete Coordenador de Colheita e Transplantação (GCCT), e analisar o desempenho da rede de colheita de órgãos para Tx. Realizou-se um estudo observacional/não interventivo, prospetivo e analítico que incidiu sobre uma coorte de doentes em Hd que foi submetida a Tx renal. O tempo de seguimento mínimo foi de um ano e máximo de três anos. No início do estudo, colheram-se dados sociodemográficos e clínicos em 386 doentes em Hd, elegíveis para Tx renal. A qualidade de vida relacionada com a saúde (QVRS) foi avaliada nos doentes em Hd (tempo 0) e nos transplantados, aos três, seis, 12 meses, e depois, anualmente. Incluíram-se os doentes que por falência do enxerto renal transitaram para Hd. Na sua medição, utilizou-se um instrumento baseado em preferências da população, o EuroQol-5D, que permite o posterior cálculo dos QALY. Num grupo de 82 doentes, a QVRS em Hd foi avaliada em dois tempos de resposta o que permitiu a análise da sua evolução. Realizou-se uma análise custo-utilidade do Tx renal comparado com a Hd na perspetiva da sociedade. Identificaram-se os custos diretos, médicos e não médicos, e as alterações de produtividade em Hd e Tx renal. Incluíram-se os custos da colheita de órgãos, seleção dos candidatos a Tx renal e follow-up dos dadores vivos. Cada doente transplantado foi utilizado como controle de si próprio em diálise. Avaliou-se o custo médio anual em programa de Hd crónica relativo ao ano anterior à Tx renal. Os custos do Tx foram avaliados prospetivamente. Considerou-se como horizonte temporal o ciclo de vida nas duas modalidades. Usaram-se taxas de atualização de 0%, 3% e 5% na atualização dos custos e QALY e efetuaram-se análises de sensibilidade one way. Entre 2008 e 2010, 65 doentes foram submetidos a Tx renal. Registaram-se, prospetivamente, os resultados em saúde incluíndo os internamentos e os efeitos adversos da imunossupressão, e o consumo dos recursos em saúde. Utilizaram-se modelos de medidas repetidas na avaliação da evolução da QVRS e modelos de regressão múltipla na análise da associação da QVRS e dos custos do transplante com as características basais dos doentes e os eventos clínicos. Comparativamente à Hd, observou-se melhoria da utilidade ao 3º mês de Tx e a qualidade de vida aferida pela escala EQ-VAS melhorou em todos os tempos de observação após o Tx renal. O custo médio da Hd foi de 32.567,57€, considerado uniforme ao longo do tempo. O custo médio do Tx renal foi de 60.210,09€ no 1º ano e 12.956,77€ nos anos seguintes. O rácio custo-utilidade do Tx renal vs Hd crónica foi de 2.004,75€/QALY. A partir de uma sobrevivência do enxerto de dois anos e cinco meses, o Tx associou-se a poupança dos custos. Utilizaram-se os dados nacionais dos Grupos de Diagnóstico Homogéneos e realizou-se um estudo retrospectivo que abrangeu as mortes ocorridas em 34 hospitais com colheita de órgãos, em 2006. Considerou-se como dador potencial o indivíduo com idade entre 1-70 anos cuja morte ocorrera a nível hospitalar, e que apresentasse critérios de adequação à doação de rim. Analisou-se a associação dos dadores potenciais com características populacionais e hospitalares. O desempenho das organizações de colheita de órgãos foi avaliado pela taxa de conversão (rácio entre os dadores potenciais e efetivos) e pelo número de dadores potenciais por milhão de habitantes a nível nacional, regional e por Gabinete Coordenador de Colheita e Transplantação (GCCT). Identificaram-se 3.838 dadores potenciais dos quais 608 apresentaram códigos da Classificação Internacional de Doenças, 9.ª Revisão, Modificações Clínicas (CID- 9-MC) que, com maior frequência, evoluem para a morte cerebral. O modelo logit para dados agrupados identificou a idade, o rácio da lotação em Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos e lotação de agudos, existência de GCCT e de Unidade de Transplantação, e mortalidade por acidente de trabalho como fatores preditivos da conversão dum dador potencial em efetivo e através das estimativas do modelo logit quantificou-se a probabilidade dessa conversão. A doação de órgãos deve ser assumida como uma prioridade e as autoridades em saúde devem assegurar o financiamento dos hospitais com programas de doação, evitando o desperdício de órgãos para transplantação, enquanto um bem público e escasso. A colheita de órgãos deve ser considerada uma opção estratégica da atividade hospitalar orientada para a organização e planeamento de serviços que maximizem a conversão de dadores potenciais em efetivos incluindo esse critério como medida de qualidade e efetividade do desempenho hospitalar. Os resultados deste estudo demonstram que: 1) o Tx renal proporciona ganhos em saúde, aumento da sobrevida e qualidade de vida, e poupança de custos; 2) em Portugal, a taxa máxima de eficácia da conversão dos dadores cadavéricos em dadores potenciais está longe de ser atingida. O investimento na rede de colheita de órgãos para Tx é essencial para assegurar a sustentabilidade financeira e promover a qualidade, eficiência e equidade dos cuidados em saúde prestados na DRC5.