How composite indicators of innovation can influence technology policy decision?

Based on the report for Project III of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment and prepared for the Winter School that took place at Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Caparica Campus on the 6th and 7th of December 2010.

An assessment of the social and economic cohesion aspects of the development of the information society in Europe

Neste trabalho pretende consolidar-se a contribuição portuguesa para o estudo comunitário “Na Assessment of the Social and Economic Cohesion Aspects of the Development of the Information Society in Europe” elaborado por um consórcio europeu liderado pela Nexus Europe e em que intervém o ISEGI- Instituto Superior de Estatística e Gestão de Informação, da Universidade Nova de Lisboa, como parceiro nacional português.

Decision making processes based on innovation indicators: which implications for technology assessment?

Based on the report for “Project IV” unit of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment. This thesis research has the supervision of António Moniz (FCT-UNL and ITAS-KIT) and Manuel Laranja (ISEG-UTL). Other members of the thesis committee are Stefan Kuhlmann (Twente University), Leonhard Hennen (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology-ITAS), Tiago Santos Pereira (Universidade de Coimbra/CES) and Cristina Sousa (FCT-UNL).

The use of indicators and evidence in governance and policy development of science, technology and innovation

This paper was first presented at the 2012 – EU SPRI Conference “Towards Transformative Governance? - Responses to mission-oriented innovation policy paradigms”, Fraunhofer ISI, June 2012, Karlsruhe

Research and development expenditure in the business sector as indicator of knowledge economy: the Portuguese experience

The objective of the paper is to help to understand recent changes in the structure of R&D activities, by analyzing data on the expenditure of the business sector in research and development (R&D). The results are framed in an international context, through comparison with indicators from the most developed countries, divided by technological intensity and economic activity. The study reveals that the indicators of Portuguese R&D expenditure in the business sector are closely linked both to fiscal policy and to high foreign direct investment in knowledge-intensive industries. It also links these indicators to phenomena such as the abundance of skilled labor in pharmaceutical industries and the government intervention in some sectors of the economy (namely health and rail transportation).

Analysing and visualising areal crime data. A case study of residential burglary in San Francisco, USA

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Promoção da saúde mental em espaço urbano

RESUMO: A saúde pública deve estar atenta aos contextos e às mudanças sociais, políticas, económicas, científicas e tecnológicas com que se confrontam constantemente as comunidades, particularmente em situações de grandes transformações como o momento que a União Europeia atravessa. A urbanização é provavelmente a mudança demográfica mais importante das últimas décadas. Tendo importantes repercussões sobre a saúde mental, é importante desenvolver a investigação neste domínio, de forma multidisciplinar e integrando a compreensão dos diferentes determinantes sociais, psicológicos e físicos. As políticas de saúde mental tornaram-se uma parte importante da política social e da sociedade de bem-estar, em particular se considerarmos a urbanização das nossas comunidades. Considerar a saúde mental em espaço urbano é fundamentalmente estudar como um espaço particular pode influenciar a saúde. Baseado nesta reflexão, desenvolveu-se uma investigação participada de base comunitária, com recurso a uma metodologia de estudo de caso. Recorreu-se a dezenas de documentos de referência local, registos em arquivo, à observação direta, à observação participante e à observação in loco do espaço urbano. Foi utilizada uma amostragem em bola de neve, estratificada, para selecionar 697 habitantes de uma cidade da área metropolitana de Lisboa. Estes habitantes foram entrevistados por 42 entrevistadores, previamente formados, assim como foram enviados questionários online dirigidos aos professores (196) e aos Técnicos Superiores de Serviço Social (12) em exercício no espaço urbano em estudo, para a caraterização sociodemográfica e para avaliação de indicadores de saúde, de indicadores relacionados com a saúde e de indicadores estruturais de saúde mental. Os resultados mostraram um espaço urbano promotor de saúde estrutura-se para capacitar os seus cidadãos a se integrarem ativamente no funcionamento da sua comunidade. Foram identificadas algumas caraterísticas como 1) o início do processo de promoção da saúde mental ser o mais precoce possível; 2) a participação comunitária ativa, num sentimento de segurança individual e comunitária, envolvendo estruturas governamentais e não-governamentais; 3) a solidariedade e a inclusão, promovendo o voluntariado e a promoção do suporte social e desenvolvendo a coesão social; 4) o reconhecimento das necessidades expressas pelos habitantes; 5) a identificação de respostas para a conciliação entre vida pessoal, familiar e profissional; 6) as estruturas de acompanhamento dos grupos sociais mais desfavorecidos; 7) as estratégias de combate ao isolamento envolvendo a população sénior e outros grupos minoritários ativamente no processo de reorganização do seu funcionamento social; 8) uma efetiva governança e gestão relacional por parte dos poderes locais, centrando a vida quotidiana da comunidade nas pessoas. A investigação participada de base comunitária constitui um instrumento útil e eficaz no desenho de planos locais de promoção da saúde mental para encontrar respostas ao desafio em saúde pública: a saúde mental e a urbanização.

Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

Economic rents, institutions and growth: International aid and natural resources: A comparative analysis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

(Re)Financing in a capital intensive industry during economic crises

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The economic value of Portuguese pine and eucalyptus forests

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Determinants of venture capital and private equity investments in renewable energy: A cross-country study

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Credit risk stress testing: The Portuguese environment, macroeconomic scenarios and the estimation of losses for corporate sectors

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Consumption and emotional compensation in economic crisis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Lawyers, judges, and judicial reform: A conceptual framework and a quantitative exploration

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics