Predicting market direction with hidden Markov models

This paper develops the model of Bicego, Grosso, and Otranto (2008) and applies Hidden Markov Models to predict market direction. The paper draws an analogy between financial markets and speech recognition, seeking inspiration from the latter to solve common issues in quantitative investing. Whereas previous works focus mostly on very complex modifications of the original hidden markov model algorithm, the current paper provides an innovative methodology by drawing inspiration from thoroughly tested, yet simple, speech recognition methodologies. By grouping returns into sequences, Hidden Markov Models can then predict market direction the same way they are used to identify phonemes in speech recognition. The model proves highly successful in identifying market direction but fails to consistently identify whether a trend is in place. All in all, the current paper seeks to bridge the gap between speech recognition and quantitative finance and, even though the model is not fully successful, several refinements are suggested and the room for improvement is significant.

Impact of carbon/nitrogen feeding strategy on polyhydroxyalkanoates production using mixed microbial cultures

Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) production using mixed microbial cultures (MMC) requires a multi-stage process involving the microbial selection of PHA-storing microorganisms, typically operated in sequencing batch reactors (SBR), and an accumulation reactor. Since low-cost renewable feedstocks used as process feedstock are often nitrogen-deficient, nutrient supply in the selection stage is required to allow for microbial growth. In this context, the possibility to uncouple nitrogen supply from carbon feeding within the SBR cycle has been investigated in this study. Moreover, three different COD:N ratios (100:3.79, 100:3.03 and 100:2.43) were tested in three different runs which also allowed the study of COD:N ratio on the SBR performance. For each run, a synthetic mixture of acetic and propionic acids at an overall organic load rate of 8.5 gCOD L-1 d-1 was used as carbon feedstock, whereas ammonium sulfate was the nitrogen source in a lab-scale sequence batch reactor (SBR) with 1 L of working volume. Besides, a sludge retention time (SRT) of 1 d was used as well as a 6 h cycle length. The uncoupled feeding strategy significantly enhanced the selective pressure towards PHA-storing microorganisms, resulting in a two-fold increase in the PHA production (up to about 1.3 gCOD L-1). A high storage response was observed for the two runs with the COD:N ratios (gCOD:gN) of 100:3.79 and 100:3.03, whereas the lowest investigated nitrogen load resulted in very poor performance in terms of polymer production. In fact, strong nitrogen limitation caused fungi to grow and a very poor storage ability by microorganisms that thrived in those conditions. The COD:N ratio also affected the polymer composition, indeed the produced poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) (PHBV) showed a variable HV content (1-20 %, w/w) among the three runs, lessening as the COD:N increased. This clearly suggests the possibility to use the COD:N ratio as a tool for tuning polymer properties regardless the composition of the feedstock.

The role of arl13b in cilia length regulation and in zebrafish development

RESUMO: Arl13b é uma importante proteína ciliar, presente em cílios primários e cílios móveis. Ratinhos mutantes para Arl13b têm comprimento dos cílios reduzido e defeitos nos B-túbulos dos cílios. Como consequência destes fenótipos, deficiências na Arl13b originam, em modelos animais, várias doenças congénitas, incluindo problemas no estabelecimento do eixo esquerda-direita, malformações cerebrais e deformações corporais. Nos seres humanos, deficiências na Arl13b levam a uma doença crónica congénita chamada Síndrome de Joubert. Por outro lado, a sobreexpressão de Arl13b origina cílios mais longos, no entanto existe uma ausência da caracterização dos fenótipos celulares e durante o desenvolvimento embrionário. Neste trabalho, quisemos explorar o efeito da sobre-expressão de Arl13b em embriões de peixezebra. Descobrimos que, ao nível ciliar, a sobre-expressão de Arl13b nas células aumenta o comprimento ciliar em cílios primários e móveis, no entanto, a esses cílios falta adequada acetilação da alfa-tubulina no citoesqueleto feito por microtúbulos. Os nossos resultados mostraram que esse efeito é específico de Arl13b sobre-expressão e quando se manipularam as enzimas responsáveis pela acetilação (Mec17) e pela de-acetilação (HDAC6) encontrámos uma sinergia potencial com ambas. Testámos ainda, que o aumento no comprimento ciliar não estava causalmente relacionado com a falta de acetilação, ou seja, os cílios com menos acetilação não eram necessariamente os mais longos. Também mostrámos que a sobre-expressão de Arl13b é capaz de restaurar o comprimento dos cílios em mutantes com cílios curtos e como isso pode ser explorado para um futuro potencial papel terapêutico para Arl13b. Em seguida, foi avaliado o impacto do aumento da quantidade de Arl13b no desenvolvimento embrionário do peixe-zebra. Observou-se que a sobre-expressão de Arl13b apresentava fenótipos muito fracos, quando comparados com a perda de função dos mutantes de Arl13b. Focados no inesperado fenótipo leve no estabelecimento do eixo esquerda-direita abordámos a questão através do estabelecimento de uma colaboração com matemáticos, descobrimos que os cílios mais longos que potencialmente têm a capacidade de movimentar mais fluido são atenuados por amplitudes de batimento menores, e, como resultado, estes longos cílios não prejudicam o movimento do fluido e consequentemente não afetam o estabelecimento dos padrões de esquerda-direita. Sugerimos assim que a Arl13b é um regulador chave, do comprimento ciliar. Descobrimos uma nova interação com as enzimas de acetilação/de-acetilação e levantamos novas hipóteses quanto aos mecanismos moleculares da função da Arl13b. Propomos um novo modelo para o mecanismo molecular da Arl13b na regulação do comprimento dos cílios onde podemos integrar os nossos resultados com os relatados na literatura. Este trabalho adiciona mais conhecimento para o mecanismo de ação da Arl13b e, portanto, fornece uma importante contribuição para o campo da investigação em cílios.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ABSTRACT: Arl13b is an important ciliary protein, present in primary and motile cilia. arl13b-/- mouse mutants have reduced cilia length and cilia B-tubule defects. As a consequence of these phenotypes, Arl13b loss of function animal models suffer from several congenital disorders including left-right problems, brain malformations and body deformations. In humans Arl13b depletion leads to a congenital chronic disease called Joubert Syndrome. On the other hand, overexpressing Arl13b leads to longer cilia but the characterization of the cellular and developmental phenotypes was missing. In this work we explore the effect of Arl13b overexpression in zebrafish embryos. We found that, at the ciliary level, Arl13b overexpression from 1 cell stage produces longer primary and motile cilia, but these cilia lack proper alpha tubulin acetylation of their microtubule cytoskeleton. Our results showed that this effect is specific from Arl13b overexpression and when we manipulated the enzymes responsible for acetylation, Mec17, and de-acetylation, HDAC6, we found a potential synergy of both mec17 knockdown and HDAC6 activity with Arl13b overexpression. We tested that the ciliary increase in length was not causally related to the lack of acetylation, meaning the more de-acetylated cilia were not necessarily the longer ones. We also showed that Arl13b overexpression is able to restore cilia length in short cilia mutants and how that may be explored to a potential future therapeutic role for Arl13b. Next, we evaluated the impact of increasing the amount of Arl13b in zebrafish embryonic development. We observed that Arl13b overexpression presented very mild phenotypes when compared to the loss of function mutants. We focused on the unexpected left-right mild phenotype and by establishing a mathematical modeling collaboration, we found out that the longer cilia generated force was attenuated by smaller beating amplitudes, and as a result, these long cilia were not impairing the cilia generated flow and the establishment of left-right patterning. We suggest that Arl13b is one key cilia length regulator. We disclosed a novel interaction with the acetylation / de-acetylation enzymes and raised new hypothesis as to the mechanisms of Arl13b function. We propose a new model for the Arl13b molecular mechanism of cilia length regulation where we integrate our findings with those reported in the literature. This work adds more knowledge to the Arl13b mechanism of action and therefore provides an important contribution to the cilia research field.