Texts prepared for delivery at Paul Krugman's honorary doctorate by three Lisbon universities on 27 February, 2012

Three texts were prepared for delivery at the first honorary doctorate awarded simultaneously by three Lisbon universities on 27 February, 2012: an introduction, a lecture and a comment. The event included the award of member of the Lisbon Academy of Science (ACL) by Manuel Jacinto Nunes, dean of the economics and finance section of ACL who proposed his name and Olivier Blanchard’s on the 30th anniversary of James Tobin receiving an honorary doctorate from Nova University. On 24 February , Paul Krugman visited ACL and participated in a session of the project dubbed “Letter to the lusofonia Queen”. Since this project is promoted by Nova SBE’s Center for Globalization and Governance and has been featured in some of the graduate courses, a short note on the meeting is included in annex. On 15 June, the three universities authorized an edition in Portuguese and donated the copyrights to a student award on “Krugman economics”, in a way still to be determined by the editor. The lecture and the comment will be translated as soon as a suitable publisher is found. Since a lot of the teaching at Nova SBE is in English, it seemed appropriate to reproduce the original texts in the order in which they were presented. A lively question and answer period was also recorded by Nova TV and should be made available in the book, together with highlights of the media coverage. Introduced as a “militant economist”, he speaks about a crisis “his mind loves but does not let the heart forget the poor and the unemployed”. The Nobel prize winner described as a“progressist pessimist of the world economy” concludes with a severe indictment of the profession. “In normal times, when things are going pretty well, the world can function reasonably well without professional economic advice. It’s in times of crisis, when practical experience suddenly proves useless and events are beyond anyone’s normal experience, that we need professors with their models to light the path forward. And when the moment came, we failed”. The comment, by the official responsible for Paul Krugman’s mission to Portugal in 1976, contains an equally dire prediction: “I would very much like to see in the near future the weakening of the influence not only of freshwater economists but also of their conservative European followers. But I fear that this will not happen until we find ourselves in a more calamitous situation than at present”. Fortunately Silva Lopes closes in the hope “that the ideas of Paul Krugman will soon have more influence in policy makers than at present seems to be the case”.

Three essays in financial markets

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Three essays on the market for CEOs

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Three essays on economics of predictability of stock returns

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Three essays on game theory and bargaining

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Three essays on structural breaks

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Evaluation of long term persistence of Diabetes Mellitus Type II treatment newly diagnosed patients in Lisbon and Tagus health administration region : a three year follow up study

RESUMO: Raional: A persistência à terapêutica é o tempo em qualquer antidiabético oral, desde o seu início até à descontinuação de todas as medicações ou até ao fim do período do estudo. Os objetivos deste estudo foi a análise da persistência à terapêutica no segundo e terceiro anos após início do tratamento em doentes adultos diagnosticados na região de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo e determinar o efeito de determinadas variáveis na persistência a longo prazo. Métodos: Um estudo retrospetivo não interventivo foi desenhado com base nos dados a obter do SIARS (prescrições e aquisições na farmácia) e Pordata. A persistência foi quantificada como a percentagem de doentes que continuam a adquirir pelo menos um antidiabético oral ao segundo e terceiro anos após a compra da primeira receita. A associação entre a persistência e o segundo e terceiro anos com cada uma das co-variáveis foi aferido pelo teste qui-quadrado e os odd ratios foram calculados com recurso a um modelo de regressão logística. Resultados: A persistência à terapêutica obtida foi de 80% e 62% para o segundo e terceiro anos após início da terapêutica. Odd ratios para primeiro e segundo ano: número de grupos farmacoterapêuticos diferentes (OR = 2.167, 1.807 – 2.598, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.863, 1.621 – 2.142, p = 0.000); idade (OR = 0.914, 0.772 – 1.081, p = 0.294 / OR = 0.875, 0.764 – 1.002, p = 0.054); sexo (OR = 1.163, 0.983 – 1.377, p = 0.079); número de diferentes prescritores (OR = 3.594, 3.030 – 4.262, p = 0.000 / OR = 2.167, 1.886 – 2.491, p = 0.000); instituição de prescrição (OR = 0.725, 0.698 – 0.753, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.683, 0.650 – 0.717, p = 0.000); grupo farmacoterapêutico (OR = 1.056, 1.043 – 1.069, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.077, 1.060 – 1.095, p = 0.000); relação com o médico (OR = 0.834, 0.816 – 0.852, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.799, 0.777 – 0.821, p = 0.000) e custo médio mensal por grupo farmacoterapêutico (OR = 0.954, 0.942 – 0.968, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.930, 0.914 – 0.947, p = 0.000). Conclusões: O valor da persistência à terapêutica no segundo ano é ligeiramente acima do que é mencionado na literatura e não existem dados para comparar os resultados do terceiro ano. Relativamente ao efeito das co-variáveis no segundo e terceiro anos após o início do tratamento, os resultados são sobreponíveis, sendo que o sexo não está associado à persistência ao terceiro ano.----------------------------------ABSTRACT: Background: Therapy persistence is the time on any antidiabetic medication, from initiation of therapy to discontinuation of all medications or the end of the study period. The aim of the study was to analyse the therapy persistence in the second and third years after treatment initiation in newly diagnosed adult patients in the Lisbon and Tagus Valley region and to determine the effect of several co-variables in the long term persistence. Methods: A retrospective non-interventional study based on SIARS data (drug prescriptions and acquisitions) and Pordata was designed. Persistence was quantified as the percentage of patients that continued to purchase at least one type of antidiabetic at year 2 and 3 after the date of first prescription acquisition. Association between persistence at second and third years with each of the other co-variables were verified by using the Chi-Square test and odds ratio were calculated using a regression logistic model. Results: Therapy persistence obtained was 80% and 62% for the second and third years after treatment initiation. Odd ratios for second and third years: number of different pharmacotherapeutic groups (OR = 2.167, 1.807 – 2.598, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.863, 1.621 – 2.142, p = 0.000); age (OR = 0.914, 0.772 – 1.081, p = 0.294 / OR = 0.875, 0.764 – 1.002, p = 0.054); gender (OR = 1.163, 0.983 – 1.377, p = 0.079); number of different prescribers (OR = 3.594, 3.030 – 4.262, p = 0.000 / OR = 2.167, 1.886 – 2.491, p = 0.000); institution of prescription (OR = 0.725, 0.698 – 0.753, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.683, 0.650 – 0.717, p = 0.000); pharmacotherapeutic group (OR = 1.056, 1.043 – 1.069, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.077, 1.060 – 1.095, p = 0.000); relationship with the physician (OR = 0.834, 0.816 – 0.852, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.799, 0.777 – 0.821, p = 0.000) and average cost per month and per pharmacotherapeutic group (OR = 0.954, 0.942 – 0.968, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.930, 0.914 – 0.947, p = 0.000). Conclusions: Second year therapy persistence value is slightly above of what is referenced in literature and no data was found to compare the third year value. Regarding the effect of the co-variables analysed at second and third years after treatment initiation, the results were overlapping with gender being not associated with persistence at the third year.

Does ownership structure matter? Three essays in finance

Management

Production and characterization of electrospun composite fibers: confinement of thermosensitive microgels

Materials engineering focuses on the assembly of materials´ properties to design new products with the best performance. By using sub-micrometer size materials in the production of composites, it is possible to obtain objects with properties that none of their compounds show individually. Once three-dimensional materials can be easily customized to obtain desired properties, much interest has been paid to nanostructured poly-mers in order to build biocompatible devices. Over the past years, the thermosensitive microgels have become more common in the framework of bio-materials with potential applicability in therapy and/or diagnostics. In addition, high aspect ratio biopolymers fibers have been produced using the cost-effective method called electrospinning. Taking advantage of both microgels and electrospun fibers, surfaces with enhanced functionalities can be obtained and, therefore employed in a wide range of applications. This dissertation reports on the confinement of stimuli-responsive microgels through the colloidal electro-spinning process. The process mainly depends on the composition, properties and patterning of the precur-sor materials within the polymer jet. Microgels as well as the electrospun non-woven mats were investigated to correlate the starting materials with the final morphology of the composite fibers. PNIPAAm and PNIPAAm/Chitosan thermosensitive microgels with different compositions were obtained via surfactant free emulsion polymerization (SFEP) and characterized in terms of chemical structure, morphology, thermal sta-bility, swelling properties and thermosensitivity. Finally, the colloidal electrospinning method was carried out from spinning solutions composed of the stable microgel dispersions (up to a concentration of about 35 wt. % microgels) and a polymer solution of PEO/water/ethanol mixture acting as fiber template solution. The confinement of microgels was confirmed by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). The electrospinning process was statistically analysed providing the optimum set of parameters aimed to minimize the fiber diameter, which give rise to electrospun nanofibers of PNIPAAm microgels/PEO with a mean fiber diameter of 63 ± 25 nm.

Easy Jet

Equity research report