State detection in a financial portfolio: a self-organizing maps approach for financial time series

This study analyses financial data using the result characterization of a self-organized neural network model. The goal was prototyping a tool that may help an economist or a market analyst to analyse stock market series. To reach this goal, the tool shows economic dependencies and statistics measures over stock market series. The neural network SOM (self-organizing maps) model was used to ex-tract behavioural patterns of the data analysed. Based on this model, it was de-veloped an application to analyse financial data. This application uses a portfo-lio of correlated markets or inverse-correlated markets as input. After the anal-ysis with SOM, the result is represented by micro clusters that are organized by its behaviour tendency. During the study appeared the need of a better analysis for SOM algo-rithm results. This problem was solved with a cluster solution technique, which groups the micro clusters from SOM U-Matrix analyses. The study showed that the correlation and inverse-correlation markets projects multiple clusters of data. These clusters represent multiple trend states that may be useful for technical professionals.

Productivity gains from migration: An analysis of Cape Verdean return migrants

Are return migrants more productive than non-migrants? If so, is it a causal effect or simply self-selection? Existing literature has not reached a consensus on the role of return migration for origin countries. To answer these research questions, an empirical analysis was performed based on household data collected in Cape Verde. One of the most common identification problems in the migration literature is the presence of migrant self-selection. In order to disentangle potential selection bias, we use instrumental variable estimation using variation provided by unemployment rates in migrant destination countries, which is compared with OLS and Nearest Neighbor Matching (NNM) methods. The results using the instrumental variable approach provide evidence of labour income gains due to return migration, while OLS underestimates the coefficient of interest. This bias points towards negative self-selection of return migrants on unobserved characteristics, although the different estimates cannot be distinguished statistically. Interestingly, migration duration and occupational changes after migration do not seem to influence post-migration income. There is weak evidence that return migrants from the United States have higher income gains caused by migration than the ones who returned from Portugal.

Wealth Management in Africa: The Cape Verde Opportunity

This work project consists of a comprehensive study of the possibility of opening a Wealth Management (WM) firm located in Cape Verde (CV), and was made at the request of NovoBanco’s Research Sectorial team. WM is a growing industry that consists in the set of financial services provided to wealthy clients. After taking into account the expected industry growth of the Sub-Saharan region, the preferences of the African wealthy, the current industry structure, and the advantages and disadvantages of locating a WM business in CV, it is concluded that a business opportunity exists. The reasons for thus, along with relevant recommendations, including which services a new business should offer and whom to target specifically, are presented in the final section.

Vila Galé hotels' internationalization to Cape Verde

The intent of this paper is to assess the most suitable internationalization strategy for Vila Galé Hotels into the Cape Verdean market (namely into Sal Island), under an investment on a 5-star resort with an all-inclusive system. First, the company’s historic moves onto opening new business units, its corporate strategy triangle and its brand communication channels were studied. Afterwards, the macroeconomics, the hotel industry and other relevant trends of the country at stake were analysed in order to understand the best positioning for Vila Galé in the market as well as the most fitting plan for the project. Finally, it was shown that building a 5-star resort is the most appropriate mode of entry into this market. Keywords: