Assessing the impacts of land use and land cover change on hydrology of watershed: a case study on Gigel-Abbay Watershed, Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

How effective are brief interventions in smoking cessation: project of a cohort study in a family health care unit

ABSTRACT: Tobacco use remains the most significant modifiable cause of disability, death and illness1. In Portugal, 19,6% of the population aged ten years or more smoke3. A Cochrane review of 20087 concluded that a brief advice intervention (compared to usual care) can increase the likelihood of a smoker to quit and remain nonsmoker 12 months later by a further 1 to 3 %. Several studies have shown that Primary Care Physicians can play a key role in these interventions8,9,10. However we did not find studies about the effectiveness of brief interventions in routine consultations of Family Doctors in Portugal. For this reason we designed a Cohort Study to make an exploratory study about the effectiveness of brief interventions of less than three minutes in comparison with usual care in routine consultations. The study will be implemented in a Family Healthcare Unit in Beja, during six months. Family Doctors of the intervention group should be submitted for an educational and training program before the study begin. Quit smoking sustained rates will be estimated one year after the first intervention in each smoker. If, as we expect, quit smoking rates will be higher in the intervention group than in the control group, this may change Portuguese Family Doctors attitudes and increase the provision of brief interventions in routine consultations in Primary Healthcare Centers.

Financiamento hospitalar em Portugal : incentivos à selecção e equidade

RESUMO - Contexto: O sistema de financiamento do internamento hospitalar público Português é de natureza prospectiva, através de um orçamento global baseado no casemix para os doentes do Serviço Nacional de Saúde (SNS) e de um pagamento por episódio para os doentes dos subsistemas. Em ambos os casos, o financiamento baseia-se principalmente nos Grupos de Diagnóstico Homogéneos (GDH) correspondentes a cada episódio, seja para atribuir um preço por doente saído no caso dos doentes dos subsistemas, seja para calcular o casemix do hospital no caso dos doentes do SNS. Atendendo à heterogeneidade de utilização de recursos intra GDH, resultante das características e necessidades individuais de cada doente, é expectável que o hospital, tendo em vista a garantia da sustentabilidade económica e financeira e/ou a obtenção de mais-valias, procure que o custo de produção fique aquém do preço médio pago, o que pode resultar na selecção de doentes. Por outro lado, ao não ser tida em conta no financiamento, e na ausência de selecção, a heterogeneidade intra GDH pode resultar na injusta recompensa/penalização de uns hospitais em detrimento de outros, tendo em conta as características e necessidades da população que servem e pelas quais não são compensados. Objectivos: O presente estudo propôs-se, por isso, avaliar o impacte que as características inerentes aos doentes têm no consumo de recursos hospitalares, tendo em vista inferir se as mesmas criam incentivos à selecção de doentes ou são fonte de penalizações ou recompensas injustas para os hospitais. Metodologia: Foi utilizada a amostra completa dos doentes internados no ano 2007 por doenças e perturbações do aparelho circulatório (Grande Categoria de Diagnóstico 5) nos 76 hospitais públicos Portugueses (69.905 episódios). Assumiu-se como proxy dos custos a variável tempo de internamento, e avaliou-se, mediante a realização de uma regressão linear multivariada, a relação existente entre a variação no tempo de internamento e as características sexo, idade, severidade, comorbilidades e estatuto económico dos doentes, tendo-se concluído que todas, menos o sexo, têm impacte significativo no tempo de internamento. Uma análise preliminar da distribuição das características identificadas como indutoras de custos pelos hospitais em estudo, conforme o resultado financeiro alcançado por estes fosse positivo ou negativo, sugeriu que as mesmas podem ter impacte nos resultados financeiros alcançados pelos hospitais. Conclusão: Concluiu-se que a actual metodologia de financiamento dos hospitais públicos portugueses possui incentivos à selecção de doentes, visto possibilitar a identificação de doentes que pelas suas características se tornam menos “rentáveis” para os hospitais, o que se pode traduzir numa perda de qualidade assistencial e de acessibilidade para os mesmos e beneficia/penaliza uns hospitais em detrimento de outros, de acordo com as características da população que servem.

Fiscal adjustments and sovereign default in different government systems

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Structural transformation and specialization patterns in the product space: assessing China and India

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Tuberculose e infecção VIH/SIDA : uma análise comparativa em Portugal continental no biénio 2008-2009

RESUMO - Introdução: Actualmente 11,3 milhões de indivíduos estão co-infectados pela Tuberculose/Vírus Imunodeficiência Humana (TB/VIH), uma das principais causas de incapacidade e morte no mundo. É determinada pela exposição dos indivíduos aos factores de risco e condições/determinantes sociais de saúde. Várias são as medidas criadas a nível nacional e internacional na luta contra TB e a infecção VIH. Objectivo: Caracterizar e comparar os casos de TB entre os indivíduos não infectados com VIH e os infectados com VIH, considerando as características sócio-demográficas, o tratamento, patologias associadas e factores de risco. Método: Estudo descritivo, quantitativo e observacional. A informação foi obtida a partir da base de dados do Sistema Nacional de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Tuberculose dos casos de TB notificados entre 1 de Janeiro de 2008 a 31 de Dezembro de 2009. Para tratamento e análise estatística (descritiva e inferencial) o programa usado foi o SPSS versão 18,0. Resultados: 12,8% dos indivíduos estavam co-infectados com TB/VIH e 87,2% não estavam co-infectados. A presença de VIH nos casos de tuberculose apresenta evidência de relação com quase todas variáveis em estudo (p<0,00) excepto a presença de insuficiência renal (p<0,307). Apresentam maior probalidade de risco da co-infecção TB/VIH os homens, a faixa etária [35;44[, os estrangeiros, os desempregados, estar em retratamento e fumar. Os indivíduos com Doença Hepática (OR= 5,238; IC95%: 3,706;7,403; ORA = 3,104; IC95%: 2,164;4,454), patologias associadas (OR=13,199; IC95%: 11,246; 15,491; ORA=21,348; IC95%:17,569; 25,940) e factores de risco (OR=3,237; IC95%: 2,968; 3,531; ORA=2,644; IC95%: 2,414; 2,985) tem maior probalidade da co-infecção TB/VIH. O ajustamento para o sexo e a idade interferiu em todas variáveis em estudo. Conclusão: Os homens, da faixa etária [35;44 [, desempregados, estrangeiros, em retratamento, fumadores apresentam maior probalidade de risco de estar co-infectado com TB/VIH.

Three essays in risky behaviors

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Web-assisted tobacco intervention in Portuguese : intentions to make behavioural changes and behavioural changes

ABSTRACT - The problem of how to support “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC) and “behaviour changes” (BC) in smoking cessation when there is a scarcity of resources is a pressing issue in public health terms. The present research focuses on the use of information and communications technologies and their role in smoking cessation. It is developed in Portugal after the ratification of WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (on 8 November 2005). The prevalence of smokers over fifteen years of age within the population stood at 20.9% (30.9% for men and 11.8% for women). While the strategy of helping people to quit smoking has been emphasised at National Health Service (NHS) level, the uptake of cessation assistance has exceeded the capacity of the service. This induced the search of new theoretical and practical venues to offer alternative options to people willing to stop smoking. Among these, the National Health Plan (NHP) of Portugal (2004-2010), identifies the use of information technologies in smoking cessation. eHealth and the importance of health literacy as a means of empowering people to make behavioural changes is recurrently considered an option worth investigating. The overall objective of this research is to understand, in the Portuguese context, the use of the Internet to help people to stop smoking. Research questions consider factors that may contribute to “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC) and “behavioural changes” (BC) while using a Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP). Also consideration is given to the trade-off on the use of the Web as a tool for smoking cessation: can it reach a vast number of people for a small cost (efficiency) demonstrating to work in the domain of smoking cessation (efficacy)”? In addition to the introduction, there is a second chapter in which the use of tobacco is discussed as a public health menace. The health gains achieved by stopping smoking and the means of quitting are also examined, as is the use of the Internet in smoking cessation. Then, several research issues are introduced. These include background theory and the theoretical framework for the Sense of Coherence. The research model is also discussed. A presentation of the methods, materials and of the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) follows. In chapter four the results of the use of the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) are presented. This study is divided into two sections. The first describes results related to quality control in relation to the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) and gives an overview of its users. Of these, 3,150 answered initial eligibility questions. In the end, 1,463 met all eligibility requirements, completed intake, decided on a day to quit smoking (Dday) and declared their “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC) while a second targeted group of 650 did not decide on a Dday. With two quit attempts made before joining the platform, most of the participants had experienced past failures while wanting to stop. The smoking rate averaged 21 cigarettes per day. With a mean age of 35, of the participants 55% were males. Among several other considerations, gender and the Sense of Coherence (SOC) influenced the success of participants in their IBC and endeavour to set quit dates. The results of comparing males and females showed that, for current smokers, establishing a Dday was related to gender differences, not favouring males (OR=0.76, p<0.005). Belonging to higher Socio-economic strata (SES) was associated with the intention to consider IBC (when compared to lower SES condition) (OR=1.57, p<0.001) and higher number of school years (OR=0.70, p<0.005) favoured the decision to smoking cessation. Those who demonstrated higher confidence in their likelihood of success in stopping in the shortest time had a higher rate of setting a Dday (OR=0.51, p<0.001). There were differences between groups in IBC reflecting the high and low levels of the SOC score (OR=1.43, p=0.006), as those who considered setting a Dday had higher levels of SOC. After adjusting for all variables, stages of readiness to change and SOC were kept in the model. This is the first Arm of this research where the focus is a discussion of the system’s implications for the participants’ “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC). Moreover, a second section of this study (second Arm) offers input collected from 77 in-depth interviews with the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) users. Here, “Behaviour Change” (BC) and the usability of the platform are explored a year after IBC was declared. A percentage of 32.9% of self-reported, 12-month quitters in continuous abstinence from smoking from Dday to the 12-month follow- up point of the use of the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) has been assessed. Comparing the Sense of Coherence (SOC) scores of participants by their respective means, according to the two groups, there was a significant difference in these scores of non smokers (BC) (M=144,66, SD=22,52) and Sense of Coherence (SOC) of smokers (noBC) (M=131,51, SD=21,43) p=0.014. This WATIP strategy and its contents benefit from the strengthening of the smoker’s sense of coherence (SOC), so that the person’s progress towards a life without tobacco may be experienced as comprehensible, manageable and meaningful. In this sample the sense of coherence (SOC) effect is moderate although it is associated with the day to quit smoking (Dday). Some of the limitations of this research have to do with self-selection bias, sample size (power) and self-reporting (no biochemical validation). The enrolment of participants was therefore not representative of the smoking population. It is not possible to verify the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) evaluation of external validity; consequently, the results obtained cannot be applied generalized. No participation bias is provided. Another limitation of this study is the associated limitations of interviews. Interviewees’ perception that fabricating answers could benefit them more than telling the simple truth in response to questions is a risk that is not evaluated (with no external validation like measuring participants’ carbon monoxide levels). What emerges in this analysis is the relevance of the process that leads to the establishment of the quit day (Dday) to stop using tobacco. In addition, technological issues, when tailoring is the focus, are key elements for scrutiny. The high number of dropouts of users of the web platform mandates future research that should concentrate on the matters of the user-centred design of portals. The focus on gains in health through patient-centred care needs more research, so that technology usability be considered within the context of best practices in smoking cessation.

Product communication strategies: Emotional versus rational communication strategies and attitude change on children consumers

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Three essays on the term structure of interest rates

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Assessing self-organization and emergence in Evolvable Assembly Systems (EAS)

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Touchless autopsy report

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica

Structural time series models and the Kalman filter: A concise review

The continued increase in availability of economic data in recent years and, more importantly, the possibility to construct larger frequency time series, have fostered the use (and development) of statistical and econometric techniques to treat them more accurately. This paper presents an exposition of structural time series models by which a time series can be decomposed as the sum of a trend, seasonal and irregular components. In addition to a detailled analysis of univariate speci fications we also address the SUTSE multivariate case and the issue of cointegration. Finally, the recursive estimation and smoothing by means of the Kalman filter algorithm is described taking into account its different stages, from initialisation to parameter s estimation.

Going twice to the polls?: Optimality of two-stage voting procedures

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

UNCERTAINTY AND DECISION-MAKING IN THE HUMAN BRAIN

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology, Neuroscience